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RICE

Rice 7 at Army 14

ARMY
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2019 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Pregame prior+36.0Home team on offense+1.0Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:30: Nahshon Ellerbe run for 54 yds for a TD, (Will Harrison KICK) — RICE win probability +7.3 pts (now 17%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:40: Nahshon Ellerbe run for 15 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST down — RICE win probability +8.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:01: Aston Walter run for 2 yds to the Army 33 — RICE win probability +7.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:58: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Kell Walker for 17 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +20.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:54: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 25 — ARMY win probability +7.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00RICE 4th & 9 at RICE 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:57ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:45RICE 4th & 3 at ARMY 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.1%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:45ARMY 4th & 14 at ARMY 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:21RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.3%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:23ARMY 4th & 11 at ARMY 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:29RICE 4th & 7 at ARMY 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00ARMY 4th & 9 at RICE 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    80.4%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:12RICE 4th & 5 at RICE 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:40RICE 4th & 7 at ARMY 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    26.8%−1.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:43ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−3.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00RICE 4th & 11 at ARMY 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    33.3%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:08RICE 4th & 1 at ARMY 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−7.9
    64% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−10.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2RICE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 8:50ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:30RICE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:58ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
93.3%
Aston Walter run for 4 yds to the Rice 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
93.3%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Austin Trammell, broken up by Kelvin Hopkins Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+7
93.3%
Aston Walter run for 7 yds to the Rice 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
93.3%
Aston Walter run for 1 yd to the Rice 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
93.3%
Wiley Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
93.3%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for no gain to the Rice 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
93.3%
Adam Nunez punt for 61 yds, downed at the Army 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
92.5%
Sandon McCoy run for 3 yds to the Army 9Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+6
92.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 6 yds to the Army 15Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 1
OWN 15
0
92.5%
Sandon McCoy run for no gain to the Army 15Similar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
92.5%
Sandon McCoy run for no gain to the Army 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3MISSED FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:128% → 9%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
91.8%
Cameron Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Army 13Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+4
91.6%
Aston Walter run for 4 yds to the Army 9Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+1
91.7%
Aston Walter run for 1 yd to the Army 8Similar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+26
91.2%
Will Harrison 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
91.4%
Kell Walker run for 11 yds to the Army 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
91.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-3
91.5%
Artice Hobbs IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 30Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 11
OWN 30
-3
91.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 27Similar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
91.2%
Zach Potter punt for 40 yds, downed at the Rice 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
90.6%
Aston Walter run for 2 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
90.6%
Aston Walter run for 5 yds to the Rice 40Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
90.4%
Wiley Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
90.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 5 , Akyah Miranda returns for no gain to the Army 40 ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (4 Yards) to the Army 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
18 plays · 95 yds · 9:4890% → 91%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
90.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 9 yds to the Army 14Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 1
OWN 14
0
90.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for no gain to the Army 14Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+4
90.0%
Sandon McCoy run for 4 yds to the Army 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
90.2%
Sandon McCoy run for 1 yd to the Army 19Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+1
90.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Army 20Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+5
90.0%
RICE Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Army 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+5
89.0%
Sandon McCoy run for 5 yds to the Army 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
89.2%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 4 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+3
89.4%
Jabari Laws run for 3 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+2
89.3%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+3
89.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
89.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Army 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
89.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+35
89.2%
Christian Hayes run for 35 yds to the Rice 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
89.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Rice 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+17
89.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Christian Hayes for 17 yds to the Rice 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:2010% → 17%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.4%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for no gain to the Rice 25Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.5%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 6 yds to the Rice 31Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
90.4%
Wiley Green pass complete to Nahshon Ellerbe for 15 yds to the Rice 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
83.1%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 54 yds for a TD, (Will Harrison KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
86.0%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 7 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+4
86.3%
Sandon McCoy run for 4 yds to the Army 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
86.2%
Malik Hancock run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 28Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
85.9%
Kell Walker run for no gain to the Army 28Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 11
OWN 28
0
85.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Malik HancockSimilar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 11
OWN 28
+6
85.2%
Zach Potter punt for 47 yds , Austin Trammell returns for 6 yds to the Rice 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9MISSED FG
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:5418% → 21%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
82.4%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 2 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+38
82.3%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 38 yds to the Army 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
80.0%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 3 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
80.0%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for no gain to the Army 26Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
80.8%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Austin TrammellSimilar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+44
79.0%
Will Harrison 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
82.9%
Sandon McCoy run for 4 yds to the Army 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.8%
Sandon McCoy run for 9 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+19
82.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Artice Hobbs IV for 19 yds to the Rice 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
83.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
82.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Artice Hobbs IVSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+3
82.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Rice 46Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
81.4%
Zach Potter punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rice 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
78.1%
Aston Walter run for 7 yds to the Rice 13Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+6
77.9%
Aston Walter run for 6 yds to the Rice 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
77.7%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Jonathan SanchezSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+9
77.9%
Aston Walter run for 9 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+2
77.6%
Aston Walter run for 2 yds to the Rice 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
77.4%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Austin TrammellSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
77.7%
Aston Walter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 29Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+6
78.6%
Wiley Green run for 6 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
78.7%
Chris Barnes punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:0077% → 80%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
77.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Kell WalkerSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
76.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 8 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+3
77.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
78.2%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+10
78.7%
Kell Walker run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
50
+5
79.7%
Sandon McCoy run for 5 yds to the Rice 38 Sandon McCoy fumbled, forced by Elijah Garcia, recovered by Rice Blaze AlldredgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
71.1%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 15 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
69.2%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 8 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-1
68.8%
Aston Walter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 40Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-4
69.2%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 44Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 7
OPP 44
+42
72.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 40 yds, downed at the Army 4 ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (Amadeo West) to the Army 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
72.3%
Sandon McCoy run for no gain to the Army 2Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+2
72.1%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds to the Army 4Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
70.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Artice Hobbs IVSimilar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 8
OWN 4
+17
69.8%
Zach Potter punt for 48 yds , Austin Trammell returns for 17 yds to the Army 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0137% → 32%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
62.7%
Aston Walter run for 2 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-10
62.6%
WALTER, Aston rush for 24 yards to the ARMY9 (Lowery, J.), PENALTY RICE holding (WILLIAMS, R.) 10 yards to the ARMY43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+1
65.0%
Wiley Green pass complete to August Pitre III for 1 yd to the Army 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 42
+6
66.5%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 6 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
67.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 32 yds, downed at the Army 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17TD
19 plays · 96 yds · 9:2169% → 94%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
68.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Army 6Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+7
68.5%
Sandon McCoy run for 7 yds to the Army 13Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+2
67.4%
Sandon McCoy run for 2 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
69.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Army 19Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+7
69.2%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 7 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
69.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
70.4%
Cade Barnard run for 3 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+12
70.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 12 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
73.0%
Sandon McCoy run for 6 yds to the Rice 48Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
74.0%
Sandon McCoy run for 3 yds to the Rice 45Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+4
73.3%
Cade Barnard run for 4 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
73.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 6 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+1
74.9%
Sandon McCoy run for 1 yd to the Rice 34Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+4
73.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Rice 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
74.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 11 yds to the Rice 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
74.9%
Kell Walker run for 4 yds to the Rice 15Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+3
74.9%
Sandon McCoy run for 3 yds to the Rice 12Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 3
OPP 12
-5
73.4%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Kell Walker) to the Rice 17Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+17
93.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Kell Walker for 17 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 53 yds · 2:4412% → 11%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
88.1%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 15 yds to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
86.5%
Aston Walter run for 7 yds to the Rice 43Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-5
85.0%
RICE Penalty, false start (Jaeger Bull) to the Rice 38Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
85.9%
GREEN, Wiley pass incomplete to MYERS, Jordan, PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Bordeau, J.) 15 yards to the ARMY47, 1ST DOWN RICE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
84.2%
Aston Walter run for 9 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+3
83.1%
Aston Walter run for 3 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
85.6%
Wiley Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 37 Wiley Green fumbled, recovered by Rice Aston WalterSimilar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+5
88.3%
Aston Walter run for 5 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+6
89.2%
Wiley Green pass complete to Brad Rozner for 6 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 1
OPP 26
0
88.8%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Jaeger Bull, broken up by Jaylon McClintonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 25Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 11
OWN 25
-2
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:58
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Kell Walker for 17 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)
+20.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 5:40
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 15 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST down
-8.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:54
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 25
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com