2019 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2019 · Yulman Stadium
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:18 · Ryan Wright punt for 58 yds, downed at the FlaIn 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:54: Amare Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +6.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:05: Corey Dauphine run for 14 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +13.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:50: Anthony Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +8.4 pts (now 30%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:28: Justin McMillan run for 17 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +11.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:04: Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 42 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +5.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 11:41TULN 4th & 15 at FIU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snapGo for it59.4%−0.117% to convertField goal59.5%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call59.5%average punt
- Q1 5:30FIU 4th & 15 at FIU 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snapGo for it36.1%−0.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.5%average punt
- Q2 14:54FIU 4th & 9 at FIU 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snapGo for it30.1%−0.832% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.9%average punt
- Q3 14:53FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 43, down 21Close callPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it10.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.5%−0.6average punt
- Q3 10:04FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 29, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q3 4:44TULN 4th & 23 at TULN 48, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.2%−0.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
- Q3 1:05FIU 4th & 7 at FIU 18, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 15:00TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 45, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 13:22FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 28, down 28Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:18TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 20, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 8:50FIU 4th & 10 at TULN 14, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.126% to convertField goal0.2%84% to makePunt-0.1%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 5:34TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.5%97% to makeGo for two62.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:54TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.8%97% to makeGo for two69.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:05TULN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.4%97% to makeGo for two85.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:50FIU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.5%97% to makeGo for two20.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:28TULN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.1%97% to makeGo for two92.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:04TULN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:57TULN Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:44FIU Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.6%97% to makeGo for two0.6%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTULNDrive 1PUNT13 plays · 31 yds · 3:1456% → 56%
Q1 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+5
55.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 5 yds to the Tulan 37Similar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
55.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 8 yds to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 27
-10
55.5%
McMILLAN, J. pass complete to MCCLESKEY, J. for loss of 1 yard to the FIU28 (DAMES,RICHARD), PENALTY TLN holding (MCCLESKEY, J.) 10 yards to the FIU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 17
OPP 42
+1
55.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darius Bradwell for 1 yd to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 16
OPP 41
+11
55.8%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 11 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 5
OPP 30
-10
56.0%
McMILLAN, J. rush for 7 yards to the FIU23 (DAMES,RICHARD), PENALTY TLN holding (MONTANO, C.) 10 yards to the FIU40, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2INT4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
TULNDrive 3TD8 plays · 70 yds · 3:2556% → 61%
FIUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
59.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 10 yds to the FlaIn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 9
OWN 25
-6
59.8%
James Morgan sacked by Patrick Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaIn 19Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 15
OWN 19
0
60.2%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulan 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5TD9 plays · 59 yds · 3:0362% → 68%
Q1 2:57
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+11
61.6%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 11 yds to the FlaIn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
61.9%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Amare Jones, broken up by Isaiah BrownSimilar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+10
61.3%
McMILLAN, J. pass incomplete to MOONEY, Darnell, PENALTY FIU holding (BROWN,I) 10 yards to the FIU31, 1ST DOWN TLN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
61.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Tyrick James for 18 yds to the FlaIn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
65.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 11 yds to the FlaIn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7TD7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5869% → 84%
Q2 13:03
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+24
68.4%
Justin McMillan run for 9 yds to the FlaIn 38 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, personal foul (Isaiah Brown) to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+20
69.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 20 yds to the FlaIn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:1519% → 30%
Q2 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
81.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Shemar Thornton, broken up by Chris JoyceSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
81.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 14 yds to the FlaIn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+7
79.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Napoleon Maxwell for 7 yds to the Tulan 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+15
79.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 15 yds to the Tulan 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+14
78.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 14 yds to the Tulan 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9FUMBLE8 plays · 50 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q2 3:50
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+11
74.0%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 11 yds to the FlaIn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
74.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Tyrick James for 6 yds to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+4
74.4%
Darius Bradwell run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 25 Darius Bradwell fumbled, forced by Jamal Gates, recovered by FlaIn Sage LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10FUMBLE1 play · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
76.0%
James Morgan sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 25 James Morgan fumbled, recovered by Tulan Cameron Sample , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11TD4 plays · 25 yds · 0:4378% → 91%
FIUDrive 12END OF HALF3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
FIUDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q3 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+5
89.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 5 yds to the FlaIn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14TD7 plays · 70 yds · 2:3893% → 99%
FIUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
98.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 4 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
98.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Cadarius Gaskin for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 29Similar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.6%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16TD1 play · 50 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:131% → 1%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 6 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
99.1%
TULANE Penalty, OFF (Dorian Williams) to the FlaIn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-9
99.2%
James Morgan sacked by Willie Langham for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 19
OWN 27
+35
99.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 35 yds to the Tulan 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+21
99.1%
James Morgan run for 6 yds to the Tulan 32 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, personal foul (Chase Kuerschen) to the Tulan 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 17 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18PUNT11 plays · 23 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:44
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+18
99.4%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Tyrick James for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 5
OPP 34
-27
99.5%
Justin McMillan sacked by Kevin Oliver for a loss of 17 yards to the TULANE 49 TULANE Penalty, intentional grounding (Justin McMillan) to the Tulan 39Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 23
OWN 48
0
99.5%
Ryan Wright punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Maurice Alexander at the FlaIn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
99.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 3 yds to the FlaIn 18Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
99.7%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Cadarius Gaskin, broken up by Macon ClarkSimilar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
99.7%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Cadarius Gaskin, broken up by Thakarius KeyesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:05100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 43
-4
99.7%
Keon Howard pass complete to Jacob Roberston for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
99.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 8 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
99.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Maurice Alexander, broken up by Larry BrooksSimilar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+64
99.8%
Thomas Leo punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Amare Jones at the TULANE 16 TULANE Penalty, Offensive holding (Willie Langham) to the Tulan 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
99.8%
CARROLL, C. rush for 8 yards to the TLN28 (GATES,J), PENALTY TLN holding (McLEOD, K.) 10 yards to the TLN10, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 23DOWNS10 plays · 64 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 5 yds to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+35
99.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 35 yds to the Tulan 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+10
99.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 10 yds to the Tulan 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
99.9%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Anthony Jones, broken up by Nick AndersonSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
99.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 7 yds to the Tulan 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24END OF GAME8 plays · 50 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:05
Corey Dauphine run for 14 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)
+13.5
TD · Q2 0:28
Justin McMillan run for 17 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)
+11.8
TD · Q2 3:50
Anthony Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
-8.4