2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreSTAN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:02 · Blake Mazza 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:19: Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 28 yds for a TD (Ryan Sanborn KICK) — STAN win probability +7.1 pts (now 24%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:41: Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 23 yds for a TD (Ryan Sanborn KICK) — STAN win probability +9.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:18: Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 10 yds for a TD (C. Scarlett Run For Two-point Conversion) — STAN win probability +17.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:29: Anthony Gordon pass complete to Brandon Arconado for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +11.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 13:02: Blake Mazza 35 yd FG GOOD — WSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
- Q1 10:58STAN 4th & 9 at WSU 34, down 6Close callPunted · 23.6% before the snapGo for it23.6%−<0.132% to convertField goal23.6%47% to makePuntTheir call23.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:02STAN 4th & 5 at WSU 44, down 13Close callPunted · 19.7% before the snapGo for it19.9%41% to convertField goal19.4%−0.527% to makePuntTheir call19.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:25WSU 4th & 10 at STAN 18, up 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snapGo for it73.9%−1.527% to convertField goalTheir call75.4%79% to makePunt70.8%−4.5average punt
- Q3 10:34STAN 4th & 3 at WSU 21, down 8Close callKicked a field goal · 21.0% before the snapGo for it20.8%51% to convertField goalTheir call20.1%−0.774% to makePunt12.4%−8.4average punt
- Q3 6:35WSU 4th & 4 at STAN 21, up 8Close callKicked a field goal · 82.6% before the snapGo for it82.4%47% to convertField goalTheir call82.0%−0.374% to makePunt75.6%−6.8average punt
- Q3 3:29STAN 4th & 22 at STAN 26, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snapGo for it12.1%−3.47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.5%average punt
- Q4 13:02WSU 4th & 4 at STAN 18, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 86.9% before the snapGo for it86.8%47% to convertField goalTheir call86.7%−0.179% to makePunt81.8%−5.0average punt
- Q4 3:14STAN 4th & 2 at midfield, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 11:02WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call76.5%97% to makeGo for two76.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:02WSU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.1%97% to makeGo for two79.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:07WSU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call86.7%97% to makeGo for two86.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:19STAN Touchdown, down 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.5%97% to makeGo for two17.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:41STAN Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.0%97% to makeGo for two23.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:18STAN Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick27.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call27.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 3:29WSU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.4%97% to makeGo for two86.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 7:09WSU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 3:14WSU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1TD12 plays · 72 yds · 3:5872% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
72.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for no gain to the WshSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
72.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 6 yds to the WshSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+6
72.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 6 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
72.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 4 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+29
72.6%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 29 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
WSUDrive 3TD13 plays · 96 yds · 5:1772% → 79%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
72.6%
Borghi, Max rush for 2 yards to the WSU29 (Williamson,K), PENALTY WSU holding (Patmon, Dezmon) 10 yards to the WSU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+18
72.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 18 yds to the WshSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+10
72.8%
Gordon, Anthony sacked for loss of 7 yards to the WSU44 (Toohill,C), PENALTY STAN holding (Kelly,KB) 10 yards to the STAN39, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
73.0%
Anthony Gordon pass incomplete to Dezmon Patmon, broken up by Kyu Blu KellySimilar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
78.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 16 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
77.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 14 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
76.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 8 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
76.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 5 yds to the WshSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5TD11 plays · 97 yds · 3:0679% → 85%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
78.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 4 yds to the WshSt 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+18
78.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 18 yds to the WshSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
79.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 9 yds to the WshSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-6
79.1%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive offside (-6 Yards) to the WshSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
79.5%
Anthony Gordon pass incomplete to Dezmon Patmon, broken up by Tristan SinclairSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+37
79.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 37 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
79.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 8 yds to the Stanf 15Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+15
84.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4817% → 24%
WSUDrive 7INT14 plays · 73 yds · 0:0080% → 81%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
79.6%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 4 yds to the WshSt 20Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-5
79.6%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for a loss of 5 yards to the WshSt 15Similar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
80.4%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 12 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+4
80.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 4 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
80.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 2 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+19
80.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 9 yds to the Stanf 21 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, personal foul (Jonathan McGill) to the Stanf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
80.5%
Anthony Gordon pass intercepted Jonathan McGill return for no gain to the Stanf 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8TD13 plays · 99 yds · 4:4020% → 31%
Q2 6:21
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+43
80.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 43 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
79.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 17 yds to the WshSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
78.6%
Davis Mills sacked by Misiona Aiolupotea-Pei for a loss of 6 yards to the WshSt 44Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 16
OPP 44
-2
79.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for a loss of 2 yards to the WshSt 46Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 18
OPP 46
+23
80.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 23 yds to the WshSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
69.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 23 yds for a TD (Ryan Sanborn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9FG9 plays · 49 yds · 1:1674% → 78%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
73.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 21 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
75.6%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 6 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+22
75.6%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 22 yds to the Stanf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 2
OPP 10
-8
76.0%
Anthony Gordon sacked by Casey Toohill for a loss of 8 yards to the Stanf 18Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
75.0%
Anthony Gordon pass incomplete to Davontavean Martin, broken up by Stuart HeadSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10END OF HALF5 plays · 42 yds · 0:2423% → 24%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
77.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 21 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
75.0%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael Wilson, broken up by Derrick LangfordSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+21
75.7%
Davis Mills pass complete to Nathaniel Peat for 21 yds to the WshSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11MISSED FG15 plays · 54 yds · 4:2622% → 24%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
78.0%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Connor Wedington, broken up by Marcus StrongSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
78.8%
Mills,D pass incomplete to Wilson,M, PENALTY WSU pass interference (Langford, Derr.) 15 yards to the STAN38, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+21
75.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 21 yds to the WshSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+15
76.5%
Mills,D pass incomplete to St. Brown,O, PENALTY WSU pass interference (Woods, Kassidy) 15 yards to the WSU28, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
74.0%
Mills,D pass complete to Wilson,M for 2 yards to the WSU26, PENALTY STAN illegal shift 5 yards to the WSU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+9
75.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 9 yds to the WshSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12FG8 plays · 58 yds · 3:5979% → 83%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
78.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 3 yds to the WshSt 24Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+8
78.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 8 yds to the WshSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+30
80.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 30 yds to the Stanf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-7
81.5%
Anthony Gordon sacked by Thomas Booker for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 32Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 15
OPP 32
+11
79.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 11 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13TD5 plays · 83 yds · 2:1718% → 39%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+20
82.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 20 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+54
81.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 54 yds to the WshSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
78.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 10Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
60.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 10 yds for a TD (C. Scarlett Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14TD3 plays · 10 yds · 0:4973% → 85%
STANDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 1 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Jay Symonds for no gain to the Stanf 25Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 4 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
82.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 9 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
81.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 33Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 15
OWN 33
-7
83.6%
Davis Mills sacked by Jahad Woods for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 22
OWN 26
0
84.1%
Alex Gracey punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 16FG7 plays · 52 yds · 2:1185% → 94%
STANDrive 17INT6 plays · 23 yds · 0:009% → 11%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 6 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
89.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 11 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
89.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 6 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+11
88.7%
Davis Mills pass intercepted Skyler Thomas return for 11 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18TD8 plays · 49 yds · 3:4295% → 99%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
95.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 15 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
95.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 7 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 2
OPP 26
-10
95.0%
Gordon, Anthony rush for 1 yard to the STAN25, PENALTY WSU holding (Kingston, Jar.) 10 yards to the STAN36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+22
94.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 22 yds to the Stanf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
95.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 5 yds to the Stanf 9Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+7
95.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 5 yds to the Stanf 4 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, face mask (2 yards) (Zahran Manley) to the Stanf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 2 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19INT9 plays · 64 yds · 1:031% → 1%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
98.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 27 yds to the WshSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
98.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 18 yds to the WshSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
98.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 7 yds to the WshSt 23Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+12
99.1%
Mills,D pass incomplete to Wilson,M, PENALTY WSU pass interference (Strong, Marcus) 12 yards to the WSU11, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.0%
Davis Mills pass intercepted, touchback. Jahad Woods return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.6%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 7 yds to the WshSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21DOWNS6 plays · 25 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 17 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 3 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Scooter Harrington for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 22END OF GAME3 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:18
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 10 yds for a TD (C. Scarlett Run For Two-point Conversion)
-17.6
TD · Q3 3:29
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Brandon Arconado for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)
+11.8
TD · Q2 1:41
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 23 yds for a TD (Ryan Sanborn KICK)
-9.9