2019 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2019 · NRG Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:24 · Dalton Witherspoon 48 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:36: Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 39 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +11.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:24: Max Borghi run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +15.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:30: Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 39 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +15.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:43: Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +13.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:21: D'Eriq King run for 12 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +25.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 11:50WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt69.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:39WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snapGo for it69.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.0%average punt
- Q1 5:24HOU 4th & 9 at WSU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snapGo for it33.3%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call33.4%54% to makePunt33.1%−0.3average punt
- Q1 0:00WSU 4th & 14 at WSU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snapGo for it64.0%−0.719% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.7%average punt
- Q3 12:48HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call58.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt55.9%−2.5average punt
- Q3 8:55HOU 4th & 7 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snapGo for it46.4%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.6%average punt
- Q3 5:48HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 39, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 28.8% before the snapGo for it29.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.2%−1.4average punt
- Q3 3:25WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 34, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 74.6% before the snapGo for it76.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.6%−1.4average punt
- Q3 0:38HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snapGo for it24.6%−3.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.8%average punt
- Q4 12:36WSU 4th & 9 at WSU 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snapGo for it75.3%−2.331% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.6%average punt
- Q4 10:45HOU 4th & 9 at WSU 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.0% before the snapGo for it25.9%−1.031% to convertField goalTheir call26.9%66% to makePunt16.2%−10.7average punt
- Q4 3:50WSU 4th & 5 at HOU 5, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snapGo for it90.8%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call90.9%92% to makePunt87.3%−3.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q2 7:33HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.3%97% to makeGo for two47.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:36WSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.3%97% to makeGo for two57.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:27HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.5%97% to makeGo for two51.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:24WSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.9%97% to makeGo for two52.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 7:30WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.3%97% to makeGo for two69.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 6:43WSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.0%97% to makeGo for two89.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:21HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.8%97% to makeGo for two7.8%−2.045% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1PUNT11 plays · 26 yds · 4:0370% → 68%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
30.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 9 yds to the WshSt 32Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
30.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for no gain to the WshSt 43Similar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+6
31.3%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 6 yds to the WshSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
32.0%
Oscar Draguicevich III punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2MISSED FG13 plays · 58 yds · 5:0632% → 34%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
32.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 5 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+3
32.5%
D'Eriq King run for 13 yds to the Houst 35 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 12
OWN 25
-10
32.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gio Pancotti) to the Houst 15Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+37
33.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 37 yds to the WshSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-7
34.4%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the WshSt 29 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WshSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3PUNT10 plays · 18 yds · 5:1066% → 64%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
34.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 7 yds to the WshSt 38Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
33.6%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Brandon Arconado for 4 yds to the WshSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
33.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Rodrick Fisher for 7 yds to the WshSt 49Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
33.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 4 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-10
33.8%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WshSt 45Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 18
OWN 45
-12
34.9%
Anthony Gordon sacked by David Anenih for a loss of 12 yards to the WshSt 33Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 30
OWN 33
+16
36.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 16 yds to the WshSt 49Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
36.4%
Oscar Draguicevich III punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD17 plays · 82 yds · 7:2037% → 51%
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
37.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 6 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+10
37.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for 10 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
39.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 41Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+7
41.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Christian Trahan for 7 yds to the WshSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+15
42.1%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the WshSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-2
43.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Kyle Porter for a loss of 2 yards to the WshSt 13Similar
Q2 7:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
50.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 13 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5TD7 plays · 72 yds · 1:5752% → 64%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+13
49.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Brandon Arconado for 13 yds to the WshSt 36Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+10
47.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 10 yds to the WshSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
47.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 12 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+39
36.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 39 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0142% → 56%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
41.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for 14 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+33
44.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 18 yds to the HOUSTON 43 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the WshSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7INT8 plays · 37 yds · 1:4147% → 49%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
52.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Brandon Arconado for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 3
50
+12
50.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Brandon Arconado for 12 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
50.3%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 17 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
51.3%
Anthony Gordon pass intercepted, touchback. Gleson Sprewell return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9FUMBLE5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0257% → 58%
Q3 12:48
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
58.2%
TEAM run for no gain to the Houst 44 TEAM fumbled, recovered by WshStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10TD6 plays · 44 yds · 2:1646% → 62%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
53.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 6 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+17
54.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 17 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
52.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 8 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+12
53.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 12 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 1:2046% → 46%
Q3 9:51
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
48.1%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12TD4 plays · 91 yds · 1:1557% → 77%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
43.3%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Brandon Arconado for 9 yds to the WshSt 18Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+29
40.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Brandon Arconado for 14 yds to the WshSt 32 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the WshSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
39.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Brandon Arconado for 14 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
23.3%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 39 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2729% → 28%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
28.6%
D'Eriq King sacked by Kassidy Woods for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 32 yds · 2:1574% → 74%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
26.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 9 yds to the WshSt 11Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 1
OWN 11
+14
26.3%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 14 yds to the WshSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
25.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 6 yds to the WshSt 31Similar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+53
25.7%
Oscar Draguicevich III punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the HOUSTON 24 HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (11 Yards) to the Houst 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 2:3927% → 26%
Q3 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+11
27.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 11 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
29.1%
D'Eriq King run for 14 yds to the Houst 42 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jeremy Singleton) to the Houst 32Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+10
28.3%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (10 Yards) to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-10
31.5%
D'Eriq King sacked by Will Rodgers III for a loss of 10 yards to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 0:38
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
25.7%
Dane Roy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Easop Winston Jr. at the WshSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 2:5475% → 76%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
25.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 6 yds to the WshSt 24Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 4
OWN 24
-12
23.8%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Brandon Arconado) to the WshSt 12Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 16
OWN 12
+13
23.6%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 13 yds to the WshSt 25Similar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
21.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Deon McIntosh for 1 yd to the WshSt 34Similar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+20
24.2%
Oscar Draguicevich III punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the HOUSTON 31 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Houst 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17FG6 plays · 29 yds · 1:4328% → 36%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
29.5%
Marquez Stevenson run for 14 yds to the WshSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18TD9 plays · 95 yds · 3:5071% → 92%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
29.1%
Anthony Gordon sacked by David Anenih for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 14Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+31
29.6%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Brandon Arconado for 31 yds to the WshSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+33
24.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 33 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-4
22.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Deon McIntosh for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 14
OPP 26
+19
21.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 19 yds to the Houst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
7.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19FUMBLE2 plays · 1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
9.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 1 yd Marquez Stevenson fumbled, recovered by WshSt Cosmas KweteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20FG7 plays · 21 yds · 2:3593% → 98%
HOUDrive 21TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:243% → 29%
WSUDrive 22END OF GAME8 plays · 20 yds · 1:5495% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:21
D'Eriq King run for 12 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+25.5
TD · Q3 7:30
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 39 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)
-15.8
TD · Q3 10:24
Max Borghi run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)
-15.6