2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadUNCO aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreUNCO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:56 · Oscar Draguicevich III punt for 54 yds, downed at the NoCol 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:58: Milo Hall run for 11 yds for a TD, (Collin Root KICK) — UNCO win probability +0.4 pts (now 2%) (top driver: UNCO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:53: Max Borghi run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Blake Mazza 20 yd FG GOOD — WSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:43: Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:11: Max Borghi run for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UNCO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 11:40UNCO 4th & 17 at UNCO 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q1 5:58WSU 4th & 2 at UNCO 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt98.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:01UNCO 4th & 19 at WSU 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.212% to convertField goal2.1%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q2 9:02WSU 4th & 6 at WSU 36, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snapGo for it97.7%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%average punt
- Q2 3:40UNCO 4th & 6 at WSU 33, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.9%40% to convertField goalTheir call2.9%−<0.149% to makePunt2.7%−0.2average punt
- Q3 11:43UNCO 4th & 16 at UNCO 19, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q4 15:00UNCO 4th & 1 at WSU 1, down 36Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%59% to convertField goal0.0%−0.294% to makePunt-0.5%−0.6average punt
- Q4 14:56WSU 4th & 4 at WSU 40, up 36Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UNCO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:22WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:58UNCO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.0%97% to makeGo for two2.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:48WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:53WSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:43WSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:11WSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:19WSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:37WSU Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:55UNCO Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNCODrive 1PUNT11 plays · 4 yds · 3:201% → 1%
WSUDrive 2TD5 plays · 62 yds · 2:0999% → 99%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 7 yds to the WshSt 45Similar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+32
99.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 32 yds to the NoCol 12 for a 1ST down NORTHERN COLO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
99.1%
Gordon, Anthony pass complete to Arconado, B, for 4 yards to the NC8 (Jace Bobo), PENALTY NC offside (Khristian Lee) 5 yards to the NC7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 5
OPP 7
+7
99.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 3TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:181% → 2%
WSUDrive 4TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1099% → 99%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.6%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 24Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
98.7%
Anthony Gordon pass incomplete to Dezmon Patmon, broken up by Michael WalkerSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+28
98.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 28 yds to the NoCol 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.6%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 5FUMBLE8 plays · 46 yds · 2:332% → 2%
WSUDrive 6TD4 plays · 71 yds · 1:1698% → 99%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+25
98.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 25 yds to the NoCol 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 7PUNT17 plays · 34 yds · 2:522% → 2%
Q2 11:01
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+7
98.3%
Jacob Knipp pass complete to Dontay Warren for 7 yds to the NoCol 38Similar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+15
98.3%
Collin Root punt 46 yards to the WSU16, Harris, Travell return to the WSU26 (Jace Bobo), PENALTY WSU roughing the kicker (Thomas, Skyler) 15 yards to the WSU47, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
98.1%
Milo Hall rush for no gain to the WSU47 (Aiolopotea-Pei), PENALTY WSU face mask (Aiolopotea-Pei) 15 yards to the WSU32, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-9
98.1%
Jacob Knipp sacked by Ron Stone Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the WshSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
98.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Rodrick Fisher for 12 yds to the WshSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
98.6%
Anthony Gordon pass incomplete to Renard Bell, broken up by Aaron HarrisSimilar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
98.5%
Oscar Draguicevich III punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoCol 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 9FG10 plays · 27 yds · 3:122% → 3%
Q2 5:25
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+20
97.9%
Jacob Knipp pass complete to Sam Flowers for 20 yds to the WshSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10INT6 plays · 37 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
UNCODrive 11FUMBLE3 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
WSUDrive 12FG5 plays · 38 yds · 0:5198% → 98%
WSUDrive 13TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1798% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 9 yds to the WshSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+14
97.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 14 yds to the WshSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+23
97.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 23 yds to the NoCol 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
97.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 7 yds to the NoCol 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+14
97.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 14 yds to the NoCol 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 14PUNT7 plays · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
98.9%
Milo Hall rush for 10 yards to the NC35 (Beekman, Bryce), PENALTY NC illegal block (Grant Stephens) 12 yards to the NC13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 22
OWN 13
-2
99.0%
Milo Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoCol 11 Milo Hall fumbled, forced by Nnamdi Oguayo, recovered by NoCol Milo HallSimilar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+16
99.0%
Collin Root punt for 47 yds , Travell Harris returns for 16 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15TD5 plays · 50 yds · 2:1199% → 100%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
50
+11
99.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 11 yds to the NoCol 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
99.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 23 yds to the NoCol 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
99.2%
Anthony Gordon run for 10 yds to the NoCol 6 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the NoCol 21Similar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+18
99.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Rodrick Fisher for 18 yds to the NoCol 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 16FUMBLE5 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:07
3RD & 4
OPP 0
+15
99.7%
Jacob Knipp pass incomplete to Darren DeLaCroi, QB hurry by Stone, Ron, PENALTY WSU pass interference (Beekman, Bryce) 15 yards to the NC46, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY, PENALTY WSU personal foul (Stone, Ron) 0 yards to the NC46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.8%
Milo Hall run for 3 yds to the NoCol 49 Milo Hall fumbled, recovered by WshSt Bryce BeekmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17TD3 plays · 49 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
99.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 20 yds to the NoCol 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+24
99.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 24 yds to the NoCol 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Brandon Arconado 5 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 18DOWNS13 plays · 68 yds · 4:150% → 0%
WSUDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 39 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
99.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Rodrick Fisher for 6 yds to the WshSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 20FUMBLE5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:21
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+17
100.0%
Jacob Knipp pass complete to Willie Fairman for 17 yds to the NoCol 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 12
OWN 21
-11
99.9%
Conor Regan run for a loss of 11 yards to the NoCol 10 Conor Regan fumbled, forced by Dallas Hobbs, recovered by WshSt Karson BlockSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21TD2 plays · 10 yds · 2:44100% → 100%
Q4 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+61
99.9%
Clay Markoff run for 57 yds to the WASHST 8 for a 1ST down NORTHERN COLO Penalty, face mask (4 yards) (Jerone Jackson) to the NoCol 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
Davontavean Martin 4 Yd pass from Trey Tinsley (Blake Mazza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 22TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:420% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:43
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q3 7:11
Max Borghi run for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 5:58
Milo Hall run for 11 yds for a TD, (Collin Root KICK)
-0.4