2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:25 · Jordan Wilmore run for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:17: Anthony Gordon pass complete to Deon McIntosh for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:51: Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 52 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +5.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:31: Blake Mazza 24 yd FG GOOD — WSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q2 0:22: Tyler Huntley run for 15 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — UTAH win probability +9.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:28: Derrick Vickers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +7.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 15:00WSU 4th & 6 at WSU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snapGo for it34.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.3%average punt
- Q1 8:41UTAH 4th & 6 at WSU 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snapGo for it65.2%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call65.3%81% to makePunt64.4%−0.9average punt
- Q1 8:41WSU 4th & 16 at WSU 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snapGo for it34.4%−0.415% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.8%average punt
- Q2 12:25WSU 4th & 10 at UTAH 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.5% before the snapGo for it30.1%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call30.2%47% to makePunt29.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 12:25UTAH 4th & 1 at WSU 38, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.3%70% to convertField goal64.9%−1.438% to makePunt64.9%−1.4average punt
- Q2 3:31WSU 4th & 7 at UTAH 7, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snapGo for it33.7%−0.428% to convertField goalTheir call34.1%91% to makePunt29.5%−4.6average punt
- Q2 1:02UTAH 4th & 1 at WSU 27, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.2%71% to convertField goal66.3%−0.962% to makePunt62.3%−4.9average punt
- Q3 11:35UTAH 4th & 1 at WSU 10, up 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.7%71% to convertField goal75.3%−2.488% to makePunt68.1%−9.7average punt
- Q3 7:20UTAH 4th & 10 at WSU 10, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snapGo for it77.2%−1.324% to convertField goalTheir call78.5%88% to makePunt70.4%−8.2average punt
- Q4 15:00WSU 4th & 3 at UTAH 3, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.9%44% to convertField goal5.9%−1.093% to makePunt0.5%−6.3average punt
- Q4 9:14UTAH 4th & 12 at UTAH 13, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it95.9%−0.922% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.7%average punt
- Q4 1:21WSU 4th & 2 at WSU 44, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 4:03UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.8%97% to makeGo for two67.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:17WSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.1%97% to makeGo for two35.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:51UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.3%97% to makeGo for two68.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:22UTAH Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.8%97% to makeGo for two73.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:28UTAH Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.7%97% to makeGo for two94.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:21UTAH Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
UTAHDrive 2MISSED FG8 plays · 74 yds · 3:4371% → 71%
WSUDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
70.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 14 yds to the WshSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
69.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 4 yds to the WshSt 38Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 16
OWN 28
0
70.5%
Oscar Draguicevich III punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Demari Simpkins at the Utah 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4TD8 plays · 76 yds · 3:0870% → 74%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
70.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 6 yds to the Utah 47Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+19
70.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 19 yds to the WshSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
73.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Devonta'e Henry-Cole for 11 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5TD10 plays · 60 yds · 3:4628% → 34%
Q1 4:03
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
71.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Rodrick Fisher for 7 yds to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
71.7%
Anthony Gordon pass incomplete to Rodrick Fisher, broken up by Tareke LewisSimilar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+14
71.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 14 yds to the Utah 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+21
71.4%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 21 yds to the Utah 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
71.3%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 4 yds to the Utah 4Similar
Q1 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
66.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Deon McIntosh for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2669% → 74%
WSUDrive 7FG9 plays · 41 yds · 2:2627% → 30%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 4 yds to the WshSt 29Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
72.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 14 yds to the WshSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+19
71.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 19 yds to the Utah 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
70.9%
Anthony Gordon pass incomplete to Davontavean Martin, broken up by Javelin GuidrySimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
70.9%
Anthony Gordon pass incomplete to Renard Bell, broken up by Terrell BurgessSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8DOWNS10 plays · 36 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
70.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Devin Brumfield for 6 yds to the Utah 43Similar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
71.3%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Jaylen Dixon, broken up by Derrick LangfordSimilar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+9
70.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 9 yds to the WshSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9FG15 plays · 54 yds · 5:0632% → 32%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
68.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Deon McIntosh for 9 yds to the WshSt 48Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+19
67.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 19 yds to the Utah 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-6
66.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Deon McIntosh for a loss of 6 yards to the Utah 39Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 16
OPP 39
+11
68.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 11 yds to the Utah 28Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
67.4%
Anthony Gordon pass incomplete to Easop Winston Jr., broken up by Terrell BurgessSimilar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+10
71.3%
Gordon, Anthony pass incomplete to Harris, Travell, PENALTY UTAH holding (Nurse, Josh) 10 yards to the UTAH23, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
68.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 9 yds to the Utah 14Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+5
68.0%
Gordon, Anthony pass incomplete to Bell, Renard, PENALTY UTAH offside (Tupai, Maxs) 5 yards to the UTAH9, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
71.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Rodrick Fisher for 2 yds to the Utah 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10TD13 plays · 75 yds · 3:0971% → 82%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
70.7%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Dallas Hobbs for a loss of 6 yards to the Utah 19Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+4
70.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Derrick Vickers for 4 yds to the Utah 23Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+41
69.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Solomon Enis for 41 yds to the WshSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
72.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Solomon Enis for 3 yds to the WshSt 33Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+6
72.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 6 yds to the WshSt 27Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+1
71.1%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Devin Brumfield for 1 yd to the WshSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+11
71.9%
Huntley, Tyler pass incomplete to Enis, Solomon, PENALTY WSU pass interference (Hicks, George) 11 yards to the WSU15, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
81.5%
Tyler Huntley run for 15 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11END OF HALF4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
UTAHDrive 12FG18 plays · 65 yds · 7:4079% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
79.0%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 12 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+15
78.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 15 yds to the WshSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
80.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 17 yds to the WshSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
80.8%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 13 yds to the WshSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+7
82.1%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 7 yds to the WshSt 10Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
84.0%
Huntley, Tyler rush for 1 yard to the WSU0, clock 08:16, PENALTY UTAH illegal shift (Fotheringham, C) 5 yards to the WSU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
84.0%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Daniel Isom for a loss of 4 yards to the WshSt 10Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
82.9%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Brant Kuithe, broken up by Patrick NunnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13INT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 15
OWN 24
0
84.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for no gain to the WshSt 24Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+15
85.5%
Anthony Gordon pass intercepted Jaylon Johnson return for no gain to the Utah 24 UTAH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (R.J. Hubert) to the Utah 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14TD13 plays · 63 yds · 4:5186% → 96%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
85.7%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Derrick Vickers, broken up by Daniel IsomSimilar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+18
84.8%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Solomon Enis for 18 yds to the WshSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
86.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Hunter Thedford for 11 yds to the WshSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
86.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 13 yds to the WshSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
86.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 11 yds to the WshSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15DOWNS20 plays · 78 yds · 1:205% → 5%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
94.3%
Anthony Gordon pass incomplete to Renard Bell, broken up by Hauati PututauSimilar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-10
94.6%
Gordon, Anthony pass incomplete to Patmon, Dezmon, PENALTY WSU holding (Ryan, Liam) 10 yards to the WSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 20
OWN 21
+15
94.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 15 yds to the WshSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+15
95.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Rodrick Fisher for 15 yds to the WshSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+10
95.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 10 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
94.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 11 yds to the Utah 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
94.5%
Anthony Gordon pass incomplete to Renard Bell, broken up by Julian BlackmonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+7
94.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 7 yds to the Utah 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
94.4%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 13 yds to the Utah 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
94.4%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 3 yds to the Utah 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
94.4%
Anthony Gordon pass incomplete to Dezmon Patmon, broken up by Jaylon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
94.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 1 yd to the Utah 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+13
97.9%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 13 yds to the Utah 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
97.8%
Huntley, Tyler rush for 6 yards to the UTAH21 (Stone, Ron), PENALTY UTAH holding (Ford, Nick) 7 yards to the UTAH8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 12
OWN 13
0
97.8%
Ben Lennon punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
98.1%
Anthony Gordon pass intercepted Francis Bernard return for 22 yds to the WshSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18TD7 plays · 35 yds · 4:0599% → 100%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-6
98.7%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 4 yds to the WshSt 31 UTAH Penalty, Offensive holding (Demari Simpkins) to the WshSt 41Similar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 16
OPP 41
+16
98.6%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 1 yd to the WshSt 40 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Justus Rogers) to the WshSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19END OF GAME7 plays · 25 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Rodrick Fisher for 2 yds to the WshSt 27Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 9 yds to the WshSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
99.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 6 yds to the WshSt 44Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Anthony Gordon pass incomplete to Renard Bell, broken up by Francis BernardSimilar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+6
99.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:22
Tyler Huntley run for 15 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
+9.6
TD · Q3 1:28
Derrick Vickers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
+7.1
TD · Q2 14:51
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 52 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
+5.4