2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadIDST aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreIDST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:47 · Kevin Ryan punt for 41 yds , Britain Covey returns for no gain to the Utah 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:26: Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 82 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:53: Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 60 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Andrew Strauch kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — IDST win probability +0.3 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 12:06: Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 2 yds to the Utah 22 — UTAH win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:51: Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 23 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 2 of 5IDST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 12:17UTAH 4th & 2 at IDST 17, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snapGo for it98.0%56% to convertField goalTheir call98.0%−0.180% to makePunt97.6%−0.5average punt
- Q1 12:17IDST 4th & 11 at IDST 37, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q1 3:04IDST 4th & 10 at UTAH 46, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.8%−<0.130% to convertField goal2.7%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q1 1:26IDST 4th & 8 at IDST 27, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q2 12:53IDST 4th & 9 at IDST 26, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 6:34UTAH 4th & 1 at IDST 1, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.4%59% to convertField goal98.2%−0.294% to makePunt97.6%−0.9average punt
- Q2 1:17IDST 4th & 16 at IDST 26, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.315% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q2 1:01UTAH 4th & 3 at UTAH 45, up 24Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 15:00IDST 4th & 10 at UTAH 42, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.130% to convertField goal1.6%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q3 7:51IDST 4th & 3 at IDST 32, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 6:18UTAH 4th & 6 at midfield, up 31Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.9%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 1:47IDST 4th & 3 at IDST 32, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 9:39UTAH 4th & 25 at IDST 38, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.17% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.138% to makePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 4:53IDST 4th & 3 at IDST 44, down 31Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 5:57UTAH Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:26UTAH Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:53UTAH Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:51UTAH Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTAHDrive 1FG6 plays · 46 yds · 2:4399% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:002% → 2%
UTAHDrive 3TD8 plays · 71 yds · 4:1098% → 98%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
98.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 4PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 2:532% → 2%
Q1 5:57
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+17
98.0%
Matt Struck pass complete to Austin Campbell for 17 yds to the Utah 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
97.9%
Matt Struck sacked by TEAM for a loss of 10 yards to the IdaSt 44Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 17
OWN 47
+7
97.9%
Matt Struck pass complete to Austin Campbell for 7 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
97.9%
Kevin Ryan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5TD2 plays · 87 yds · 0:5298% → 98%
IDSTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
UTAHDrive 7TD5 plays · 82 yds · 2:0998% → 99%
IDSTDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 12:53
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+5
98.7%
Kevin Ryan punt for 37 yds , Britain Covey returns for 5 yds to the Utah 31 UTAH Penalty, illegal block (Devin Lloyd) to the Utah 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9DOWNS12 plays · 67 yds · 4:0799% → 99%
Q2 10:41
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+3
98.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Derrick Vickers for 3 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
98.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Solomon Enis for 11 yds to the IdaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
98.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for 17 yds to the IdaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
98.9%
Wilmore, Jordan rush for 8 yards to the ISU20 (AGUIRRE, Adkin;CRANE, Garrett), PENALTY UTAH illegal formation 5 yards to the ISU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.9%
Tyler Huntley run for no gain to the IdaSt 1 Tyler Huntley fumbled, recovered by Utah Tyler HuntleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 10PUNT14 plays · 25 yds · 3:421% → 1%
Q2 3:41
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+15
99.0%
STRUCK, Matt pass incomplete to GUELLER, Mitch, PENALTY UTAH personal foul (lauaki, Semisi) 15 yards to the ISU21, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+15
99.0%
STRUCK, Matt pass incomplete to GUELLER, Mitch, PENALTY UTAH personal foul (Lauaki, Semisi) 15 yards to the ISU21, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 16
OWN 26
+10
99.2%
Kevin Ryan punt for 46 yds , Britain Covey returns for 10 yds to the Utah 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.1%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for 7 yds to the Utah 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 13PUNT10 plays · 33 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.6%
Gunnar Amos pass complete to Michael Dean for 6 yds to the IdaSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
98.5%
AMOS, Gunnar pass incomplete to DEAN, Michael (Guidry, Javelin), PENALTY UTAH roughing passer (Tafua, Mika) 15 yards to the ISU46, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+15
98.6%
Gunnar Amos pass complete to Tanner Conner for 15 yds to the Utah 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14TD8 plays · 80 yds · 4:1599% → 100%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
98.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 2 yds to the Utah 22Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+8
98.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 8 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+20
98.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 20 yds to the IdaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
98.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 15 yds to the IdaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+9
98.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for 9 yds to the IdaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 23 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Gunnar Amos pass incomplete to Mitch Gueller, broken up by Hauati PututauSimilar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Gunnar Amos pass complete to Michael Dean for 2 yds to the IdaSt 27Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
99.8%
Gunnar Amos pass complete to Austin Campbell for 5 yds to the IdaSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Solomon Enis for 5 yds to the IdaSt 49Similar
Q3 6:18
4TH & 6
50
+55
99.9%
Ben Lennon punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Michael Dean at the UTAH 10 for a 1ST down IDAHO ST Penalty, kick catching interference (15 Yards) to the IdaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:47
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Kevin Ryan punt for 41 yds , Britain Covey returns for no gain to the Utah 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18FUMBLE9 plays · 25 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
99.9%
Drew Lisk pass complete to Terrell Perriman for 7 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+8
99.9%
Drew Lisk pass complete to Derrick Vickers for 8 yds to the Utah 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+10
99.9%
Drew Lisk pass complete to Donte Banton for 10 yds to the IdaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Drew Lisk pass complete to Terrell Perriman for 2 yds to the IdaSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 25
OWN 43
+8
99.9%
Drew Lisk pass complete to Britain Covey for 8 yds Britain Covey fumbled, forced by Luke Holloway, recovered by IdaSt Garrett CraneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 19INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
UTAHDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
99.9%
Brumfield,Devin rush for 8 yards to the ISU15 (GREEN, Darian), PENALTY UTAH holding (Niumatalolo,Al) 10 yards to the ISU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 20
OPP 33
-10
99.9%
Wilmore, Jordan rush for 3 yards to the ISU30 (BELNAP, Colton;CRANE, Garrett), PENALTY UTAH holding (Daniels,Braeden) 10 yards to the ISU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 25
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Ben Lennon punt for 23 yds , Michael Dean returns for no gain to the IdaSt 17 Michael Dean fumbled, recovered by IdaSt Michael DeanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:53
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+17
100.0%
Gunnar Amos pass complete to Michael Dean for 17 yds to the IdaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
100.0%
Gunnar Amos pass complete to Michael Dean for 3 yds to the IdaSt 40Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+4
100.0%
Gunnar Amos pass complete to Nate Shubert for 4 yds to the IdaSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 22END OF GAME3 plays · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:51
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 23 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q1 1:26
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 82 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 12:53
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 60 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
+0.6