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USC

USC 27 at Notre Dame 30

ND
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-3.2ND 85.9%Chase McGrath 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 20 · Q3 8:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:53 · Chase McGrath 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior+10.4Home team on offense+12.4Garbage-time factor+1.9Score differential+5.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Time remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:38: Braden Lenzy run for 51 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +6.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:34: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 38 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +13.6 pts (now 25%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:27: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +21.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 3:33: Ian Book run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +11.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:04: Markese Stepp run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +24.2 pts (now 29%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 7USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 11:53USC 4th & 8 at ND 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:47ND 4th & 13 at USC 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    74.9%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:54USC 4th & 6 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:09ND 4th & 8 at ND 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:13USC 4th & 13 at ND 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00ND 4th & 5 at ND 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:09USC 4th & 6 at ND 42, up 3
    Close callPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    30.5%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:01USC 4th & 7 at ND 42, down 4
    Close callPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:04USC 4th & 16 at USC 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:15ND 4th & 9 at USC 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:34ND 4th & 10 at USC 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:53USC 4th & 5 at ND 9, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−6.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:28ND 4th & 5 at USC 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%−0.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:47ND 4th & 5 at USC 25, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−7.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USC made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q2 8:37ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:38ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:34USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:27USC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.3%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:33ND Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:04USC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:5225% → 25%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
75.2%
Kedon Slovis run for 4 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
75.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 19 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
75.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 4 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-9
74.8%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 15
50
+7
74.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
74.7%
Ben Griffiths punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:5375% → 74%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
74.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+26
74.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 26 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
74.8%
Ian Book run for 17 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
74.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tommy Kraemer) to the USC 44Similar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+2
74.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 18
OPP 42
+5
74.5%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 5 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 13
OPP 37
0
74.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chris FinkeSimilar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 13
OPP 37
0
73.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3626% → 27%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
73.8%
Stephen Carr run for 7 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
73.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
73.4%
Stephen Carr run for 14 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
72.7%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 44Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+6
73.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 6
50
0
72.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q1 5:54
4TH & 6
50
0
73.1%
Ben Griffiths punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:2673% → 72%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
73.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Young for 2 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
73.0%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
72.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Michael YoungSimilar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+10
72.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 38 yds , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:4228% → 29%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
50
+19
72.0%
Markese Stepp run for 19 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
71.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 9 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
71.3%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Kurt Hinish and Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa for 0 yards to the NDame 22 Kedon Slovis fumbled, recovered by USCSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
71.5%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-3
71.1%
Markese Stepp run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 13
OPP 22
0
71.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 13
OPP 22
0
71.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+40
71.1%
Chase McGrath 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 2:0571% → 69%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
70.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tommy TrembleSimilar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+9
70.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 9 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+4
70.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
70.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 25Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
70.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tommy TrembleSimilar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 11
OWN 25
-5
69.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Delay of Game (Ian Book) to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 16
OWN 20
+11
69.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 11 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 5
OWN 31
+6
68.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 46 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for 6 yds to the USC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:3631% → 33%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
68.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+8
68.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 8 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
67.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
67.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 1
50
+4
66.9%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
66.5%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 47Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
66.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+5
66.9%
Kedon Slovis run for 5 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
67.1%
Ben Griffiths punt for 39 yds, downed at the NDame 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD
9 plays · 97 yds · 2:2367% → 74%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
67.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the NDame 6Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 6
0
66.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tony Jones Jr.Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+9
65.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 9 yds to the NDame 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
67.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 12 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+43
66.8%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 43 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
69.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 8 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+12
69.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 12 yds to the USC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
69.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Jahmir SmithSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
74.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 10 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:1929% → 29%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
71.4%
Markese Stepp run for 19 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
70.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 6 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+4
69.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 4 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
69.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
69.3%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
69.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
70.7%
Ben Griffiths punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:1773% → 81%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
72.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 11 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
72.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 14 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
74.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+51
80.9%
Braden Lenzy run for 51 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3120% → 18%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-12
80.6%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Khalid Kareem for a loss of 12 yards to the USC 19Similar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
82.0%
Ben Griffiths punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12FG
11 plays · 29 yds · 2:4382% → 85%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
81.9%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+14
81.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 14 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
82.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Young for 2 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+7
83.0%
Chris Finke run for 7 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 1
OPP 33
-5
82.7%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 38Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+10
82.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 10 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
83.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Michael YoungSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
83.5%
Ian Book run for 2 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 8
OPP 26
-1
82.8%
Ian Book sacked by John Houston Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 27Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
85.2%
Jonathan Doerer 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
83.4%
Markese Stepp run for 1 yd to the USC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:1186% → 89%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
86.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
87.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 5 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
86.7%
Ian Book run for 3 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
87.5%
Tony Jones Jr. run for no gain to the NDame 48Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+18
87.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 18 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
87.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
87.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
87.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Jafar ArmstrongSimilar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+52
89.0%
Jonathan Doerer 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:2211% → 14%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
89.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 13 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
89.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+6
88.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
88.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 7 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
88.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+11
88.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 11 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
88.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 15 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
88.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
88.2%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
89.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Stephen CarrSimilar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
85.9%
Chase McGrath 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 4:1789% → 91%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
89.0%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 26Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+19
88.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 19 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
90.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
90.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 9 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
90.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
90.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+1
90.8%
Ian Book run for 1 yd to the USC 40Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+2
90.8%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
90.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tommy TrembleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:2612% → 25%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
88.4%
Markese Stepp run for 8 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+5
88.0%
Markese Stepp run for 5 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
87.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 4 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
88.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 7 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
74.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 38 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:1382% → 86%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
82.4%
Jahmir Smith run for 1 yd to the NDame 31Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+8
82.3%
Jahmir Smith run for 8 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
83.2%
Ian Book run for 2 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
85.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 7 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 3
OWN 48
-3
86.2%
Ian Book run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+15
85.1%
USC Penalty, Roughing Passer (Palaie Gaoteote IV) to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
87.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 10 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
87.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 7 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
87.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Michael YoungSimilar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 3
OPP 23
-2
86.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 25Similar
Q4 13:47
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
86.3%
Jonathan Doerer 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1414% → 38%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Vavae MalepeaiSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.6%
Stephen Carr run for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+25
85.4%
Markese Stepp run for 25 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
83.6%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
83.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+17
84.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 17 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
82.3%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+11
84.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 11 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
62.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:3774% → 94%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
73.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
73.7%
Ian Book run for no gain to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
72.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 9 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
74.8%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 9 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+1
76.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
76.6%
Jahmir Smith run for 13 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
77.3%
Jahmir Smith run for 3 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+7
77.3%
Jahmir Smith run for 7 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-11
78.1%
Ian Book run for 4 yds to the USC 26 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the USC 41Similar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 21
OPP 41
+12
76.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 12 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-1
79.2%
Ian Book run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 30Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+17
77.4%
Ian Book run for 17 yds to the USC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
82.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 5 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
93.9%
Ian Book run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 2:117% → 29%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
93.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 2 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+9
94.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 9 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
93.9%
Kedon Slovis run for 5 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+18
93.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 18 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
93.1%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Jamir Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+15
94.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 15 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
93.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 20 yds to the NDame 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
93.5%
Kedon Slovis run for 9 yds to the NDame 2Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
70.6%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5893% → 95%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
50
-1
92.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-1
94.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 12
OWN 48
-1
95.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:04
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
-24.2
TD · Q4 10:27
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
-21.8
TD · Q3 2:34
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 38 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
-13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com