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UTAH

Utah 23 at USC 30

USC
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreUTAH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGSAFETYTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:15 · Tyler Huntley run for 2 yds to the USC 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Home team on offense+2.1Pregame prior−7.0Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:54: Michael Pittman Jr. 77 Yd pass from Matt Fink (Chase McGrath Kick) — USC win probability +12.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:47: Cole Fotheringham 2 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Jadon Redding Kick) — UTAH win probability +16.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  3. SAFETY · Q4 8:51: Tyler Huntley sacked by Caleb Tremblay for a loss of 6 yards for a SAFETY UTAH Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tyler Huntley) to the Utah 0 — USC win probability +6.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:58: Markese Stepp run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +15.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:01: Jadon Redding 38 yd FG GOOD — UTAH win probability +8.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 1 of 4UTAH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 4:00UTAH 4th & 5 at USC 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:04USC 4th & 4 at USC 29, up 7
    Close callPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00UTAH 4th & 1 at USC 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    47.1%−1.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:15UTAH 4th & 3 at USC 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    47.4%−0.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:44UTAH 4th & 5 at USC 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−5.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:32USC 4th & 1 at USC 32, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:55UTAH 4th & 10 at USC 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:54UTAH 4th & 5 at USC 46, down 11
    Close callPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    23.1%−1.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:06USC 4th & 14 at USC 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−4.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:57UTAH 4th & 7 at USC 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−14.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:54USC 4th & 4 at midfield, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:01UTAH 4th & 10 at USC 20, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.2%−0.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UTAH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:57USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:39UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:11USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:54USC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:47UTAH Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:58USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 1:5840% → 42%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
40.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 9 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+8
40.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
40.6%
Matt Fink pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
40.7%
Matt Fink pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 12 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
40.9%
Matt Fink pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 15 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
41.2%
Matt Fink pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 8 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+29
42.0%
Matt Fink pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 29 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1158% → 59%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
41.8%
Jaylen Dixon run for 14 yds to the Utah 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
41.8%
Zack Moss run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 37Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+8
42.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 8 yds to the Utah 45Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+38
42.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 38 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
41.0%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 17 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:1942% → 46%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
41.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the USC 26Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
42.0%
Matt Fink pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+26
42.1%
Matt Fink pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 26 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
43.0%
Matt Fink pass complete to Josh Falo for 12 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
45.9%
Matt Fink pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 31 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4MISSED FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:5955% → 53%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.2%
Zack Moss run for 4 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
45.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 12 yds to the Utah 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
45.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 16 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
45.5%
Derrick Vickers run for 7 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+8
45.6%
Tyler Huntley run for 8 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
45.6%
Jaylen Dixon run for 9 yds to the USC 19 UTAH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryan Thompson) to the USC 29Similar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 11
OPP 29
+1
45.9%
Tyler Huntley run for 1 yd to the USC 28Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
46.1%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Jaylen DixonSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
46.8%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Zack MossSimilar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+5
47.8%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (Austin Jackson) to the USC 23Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+41
47.4%
Jadon Redding 41 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Connor MurphySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4348% → 48%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
48.3%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
48.5%
Matt Fink pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+3
48.1%
Matt Fink pass complete to Stephen Carr for 3 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
48.0%
Ben Griffiths punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:3752% → 49%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
48.2%
Zack Moss run for 4 yds to the Utah 39Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+8
47.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 8 yds to the Utah 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
47.8%
Moss, Zack rush for 4 yards to the USC49, PENALTY UTAH holding (Fotheringham, Cole) 10 yards to the UTAH37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+8
49.2%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 8 yds to the Utah 45Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
49.2%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Bryan ThompsonSimilar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+11
50.1%
Tyler Huntley run for 11 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+8
49.4%
Zack Moss run for 8 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
48.6%
Zack Moss run for 2 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+4
48.0%
Zack Moss run for 4 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+1
49.1%
Tyler Huntley run for 1 yd to the USC 29Similar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+2
50.6%
Tyler Huntley run for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:2152% → 56%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
52.1%
Matt Fink pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 1
OWN 36
-3
53.5%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 33Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+5
52.5%
Fink, Matt pass incomplete to Pittman Jr., Michael, PENALTY UTAH offside (Anae, Bradlee) 5 yards to the USC38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
53.7%
Matt Fink pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+39
53.6%
Matt Fink pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 39 yds to the Utah 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
55.0%
Matt Fink pass complete to Stephen Carr for 4 yds to the Utah 19Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-1
55.5%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 16 yards to the Utah 20 Stephen Carr fumbled, forced by Leki Fotu, recovered by Utah Mika Tafua UTAH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Utah 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:5447% → 50%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
53.0%
Tyler Huntley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
53.2%
Huntley, Tyler pass complete to Vickers, Derrick for 3 yards to the UTAH23, PENALTY UTAH holding (Mata'afa, Andrew) 10 yards to the UTAH10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 20
OWN 10
-5
53.5%
UTAH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-5 Yards) to the Utah 5Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 25
OWN 5
+30
54.4%
Devin Brumfield run for 30 yds to the Utah 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
53.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for 2 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Drake Jackson) to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
52.1%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Devin Brumfield for 8 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Olaijah Griffin) to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
51.0%
Derrick Vickers run for 5 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-10
51.1%
Henry-Cole, Devonta'e rush for 6 yards to the USC14, PENALTY UTAH holding (Kuithe, Brant) 10 yards to the USC30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
53.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for no gain to the USC 30Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+10
55.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 10 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
49.7%
Jadon Redding 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5752% → 51%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
51.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 22Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+10
51.7%
Matt Fink pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 10 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
52.1%
Matt Fink pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
51.0%
Ben Griffiths punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10FUMBLE
18 plays · 76 yds · 5:1149% → 49%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
51.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Devin Brumfield for 5 yds to the Utah 23Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
51.3%
Devin Brumfield run for no gain to the Utah 23Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+9
52.5%
Tyler Huntley run for 9 yds to the Utah 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
51.2%
Tyler Huntley run for 4 yds to the Utah 36Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
50.9%
Devin Brumfield run for 3 yds to the Utah 39Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-5
50.2%
UTAH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Utah 34Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+15
53.8%
Huntley, Tyler pass incomplete to Thompson, Bryan, PENALTY USC pass interference (Griffin, Olaijah) 15 yards to the UTAH49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAH.Similar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
50.2%
Jordan Wilmore run for 4 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+1
49.5%
Jaylen Dixon run for 1 yd to the USC 46Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+12
50.0%
Tyler Huntley run for 12 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
48.6%
Tyler Huntley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
48.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Britain Covey for 5 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+15
52.2%
Huntley, Tyler pass incomplete to Covey, Britain, PENALTY USC roughing passer (Falaniko, Juliano) 15 yards to the USC14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAH.Similar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
50.6%
Tyler Huntley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+10
50.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 10 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
50.6%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (Marlon Tuipulotu) to the USC 2Similar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
50.7%
Devin Brumfield run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 6 Devin Brumfield fumbled, forced by Palaie Gaoteote IV, recovered by USC Greg JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
55.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:0046% → 44%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.4%
Derrick Vickers run for 9 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
52.3%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 1 yd to the Utah 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
54.2%
Devin Brumfield run for 18 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
51.4%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Greg Johnson and Marlon Tuipulotu for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 46 UTAH Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+2
54.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Devin Brumfield for 2 yds to the Utah 48Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+5
55.3%
Tyler Huntley run for 5 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
56.2%
Ben Lennon punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 1:5656% → 73%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
55.7%
Matt Fink pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
55.8%
Matt Fink pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+7
54.6%
Matt Fink pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 7 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
59.6%
Matt Fink run for 1 yd to the USC 23Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
59.8%
Matt Fink pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+77
72.5%
Michael Pittman Jr. 77 Yd pass from Matt Fink (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:5228% → 25%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
72.5%
Britain Covey run for 9 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
71.4%
Devin Brumfield run for 3 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
71.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Derrick Vickers for 8 yds to the Utah 45 UTAH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Solomon Enis) to the Utah 35Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 12
OWN 35
+14
73.5%
Tyler Huntley run for 14 yds to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
71.7%
UTAH Penalty, False Start (Simi Moala) to the Utah 44Similar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+5
73.8%
Derrick Vickers run for 5 yds to the Utah 49Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
72.9%
Tyler Huntley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+5
74.0%
Tyler Huntley run for 5 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
74.9%
Ben Lennon punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3877% → 78%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
76.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the USC 14Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+22
77.7%
Matt Fink pass intercepted Terrell Burgess return for 29 yds to the USC 43 USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Austin Jackson) to the USC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:1729% → 44%
Q3 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
71.4%
Jaylen Dixon run for 6 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
72.6%
Tyler Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 2Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
56.0%
Cole Fotheringham 2 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Jadon Redding Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2765% → 62%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
64.6%
Matt Fink pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
64.3%
Matt Fink pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 3 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-7
64.4%
Matt Fink sacked by Bradlee Anae for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 30Similar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
61.9%
Ben Griffiths punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18FG
10 plays · 62 yds · 5:0039% → 44%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
61.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 16 yds to the Utah 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
57.9%
Britain Covey run for 4 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+16
57.2%
Tyler Huntley run for 1 yd to the USC 48 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Drake Jackson) to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
56.1%
Devin Brumfield run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+8
55.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Devonta'e Henry-Cole for 8 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
55.8%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 5 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (John Houston Jr.) to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
56.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 5 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
56.2%
Devin Brumfield run for 2 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-6
58.1%
Tyler Huntley run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 7Similar
Q4 11:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
56.4%
Jadon Redding 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:4460% → 61%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
60.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+12
62.0%
Matt Fink pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 12 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
63.8%
Matt Fink pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 2 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+4
64.2%
Markese Stepp run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 4
50
0
63.9%
Matt Fink pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 4
50
0
61.2%
Ben Griffiths punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Utah 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20SF
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:5441% → 34%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
59.2%
Devin Brumfield run for 5 yds to the Utah 11Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 5
OWN 11
-5
59.2%
Huntley, Tyler rush for 6 yards to the UTAH17, PENALTY UTAH holding (Daniels, Braeden) 5 yards to the UTAH6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 0
-6
65.6%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Caleb Tremblay for a loss of 6 yards for a SAFETY UTAH Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tyler Huntley) to the Utah 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 1:4170% → 91%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
69.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
69.7%
Matt Fink pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for no gain to the USC 33Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+42
68.3%
Matt Fink pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 42 yds to the Utah 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
74.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds to the Utah 19Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+15
74.9%
Fink, Matt pass incomplete to Vaughns, Tyler, PENALTY UTAH pass interference (Johnson, Jaylon) 15 yards to the UTAH4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q4 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.7%
Markese Stepp run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 22FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 2:4310% → 16%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
89.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Devin Brumfield for 13 yds to the Utah 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
89.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Derrick Vickers for 26 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
87.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Derrick Vickers for 4 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+4
87.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 4 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+4
88.4%
Tyler Huntley run for 4 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
87.3%
UTAH Penalty, False Start (Derrick Vickers) to the USC 25Similar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+3
88.1%
Tyler Huntley run for 3 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+2
88.5%
Devin Brumfield run for 2 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
89.8%
Tyler Huntley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 10
OPP 20
-5
90.8%
UTAH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 25Similar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+5
92.2%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (Brandon Pili) to the USC 20Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
84.1%
Jadon Redding 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23END OF GAME
14 plays · 8 yds · 3:5492% → 97%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
92.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 10 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
93.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 9 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
95.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the USC 45Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
95.1%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
95.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 43Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 15
OWN 43
-5
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 38Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 38
-5
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:47
Cole Fotheringham 2 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Jadon Redding Kick)
-16.6
TD · Q4 6:58
Markese Stepp run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+15.8
TD · Q3 9:54
Michael Pittman Jr. 77 Yd pass from Matt Fink (Chase McGrath Kick)
+12.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com