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USC

USC 27 at BYU 30

BYU
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:11 · Jake Oldroyd 44 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 81Pregame prior−9.9Home team on offense+1.7Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.6Time remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:03: Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +13.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:45: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 30 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +25.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:41: Zach Wilson run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +37.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:43: Chase McGrath 52 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +24.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Jake Oldroyd 43 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +17.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 8:45BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:01BYU 4th & 6 at USC 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:50USC 4th & 9 at BYU 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−3.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:11BYU 4th & 10 at USC 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−3.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:51USC 4th & 10 at USC 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:34BYU 4th & 30 at BYU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−5.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:57USC 4th & 5 at BYU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:22BYU 4th & 12 at BYU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−4.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:25USC 4th & 1 at USC 40, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%−3.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:12BYU 4th & 2 at USC 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.7%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    52.4%−2.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−15.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:00USC 4th & 1 at BYU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    45.0%−7.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    42.4%−10.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:13BYU 4th & 2 at USC 14, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.5%−1.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−14.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:38USC 4th & 8 at USC 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−3.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:27USC 4th & 1 at USC 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.7%−8.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:43USC 4th & 5 at BYU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−4.0
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−12.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:44BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.3
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:39USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:10BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:19BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:03USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:45USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:41BYU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:0668% → 68%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
32.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+15
32.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
50
+5
32.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
32.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+9
32.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 9 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
33.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+9
33.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
33.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 9 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+4
33.4%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the BYU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
32.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 8 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3033% → 33%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
32.8%
Ty'Son Williams run for 12 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
32.9%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
32.9%
Zach Wilson run for 7 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
33.2%
Zach Wilson run for 2 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
32.9%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1867% → 67%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
32.6%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Khyiris Tonga for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 14Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+4
32.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 4 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+5
32.9%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the USC 23Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
32.8%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted Payton Wilgar return for no gain to the USC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:5734% → 37%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+26
34.0%
Ty'Son Williams run for 26 yds to the USC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
34.1%
Ty'Son Williams run for 1 yd to the USC 1Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.8%
Dayan Ghanwoloku run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:0764% → 64%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
35.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+8
36.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 8 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
36.3%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted Isaiah Kaufusi return for 10 yds to the USC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6FG
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4338% → 39%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+19
37.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Zach Wilson for 19 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
38.2%
Zach Wilson run for 1 yd to the USC 7Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
38.6%
Aleva Hifo run for 1 yd to the USC 6Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
38.3%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q1 3:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
38.9%
Jake Oldroyd 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7FG
12 plays · 78 yds · 3:0061% → 63%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
39.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the USC 13Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+6
39.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 6 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+11
40.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 11 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
39.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+60
39.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 60 yds to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
38.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
38.5%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
38.6%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
37.8%
Chase McGrath 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
36.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:2440% → 51%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
39.9%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BYU 16Similar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 20
OWN 16
0
39.7%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 20
OWN 16
+5
39.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 5 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+18
39.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Ty'Son Williams for 18 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
41.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 14 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
42.5%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 13
50
+15
41.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 15 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
43.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 3 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+2
44.3%
Ty'Son Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+30
50.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 30 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 4:5651% → 64%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
49.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+8
49.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
49.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 8 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+12
48.5%
Markese Stepp run for 12 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
49.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 1 yd to the BYU 42Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+6
49.4%
Markese Stepp run for 6 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+15
49.8%
Markese Stepp run for 15 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
48.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+2
48.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+11
50.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 11 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
36.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 2:4443% → 45%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.3%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
43.3%
Ty'Son Williams run for 11 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
44.5%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 6 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+4
46.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 4 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
46.5%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
45.6%
Ty'Son Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+25
45.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 25 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
47.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
47.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
46.7%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
44.5%
Jake Oldroyd 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:0960% → 58%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
40.5%
Stephen Carr run for 7 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+15
39.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 15 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
38.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 4 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
37.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 6
OPP 47
-4
38.3%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Lorenzo Fauatea for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 49 Kedon Slovis fumbled, recovered by USC , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
41.9%
Ben Griffiths punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:2945% → 45%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
44.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 12Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+5
44.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the BYU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -9 yds · 2:2146% → 44%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.5%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
45.3%
Ty'Son Williams run for 11 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
46.9%
Jaren Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
46.3%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-19
44.7%
Zach Wilson sacked by Drake Jackson for a loss of 19 yards to the BYU 16 Zach Wilson fumbled, recovered by BYUSimilar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 30
OWN 16
0
43.5%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2360% → 58%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
39.7%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 46Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+2
41.6%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+5
42.1%
Kedon Slovis run for 5 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
42.5%
Ben Griffiths punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15FUMBLE
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:2246% → 46%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
46.4%
Ty'Son Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+7
46.6%
Zach Wilson run for 7 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
47.2%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+8
47.0%
Ty'Son Williams run for 8 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+3
47.8%
Ty'Son Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
48.2%
Zach Wilson sacked by Hunter Echols for a loss of 6 yards to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+4
47.5%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 4 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
46.5%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
45.7%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 56 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for no gain to the USC 15 Tyler Vaughns fumbled, recovered by USC , return for 4 yds to the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:4555% → 55%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
45.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 16 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
44.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
43.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+2
43.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
45.3%
Ben Griffiths punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17DOWNS
13 plays · 79 yds · 3:5649% → 55%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
48.9%
Ty'Son Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+2
48.8%
Ty'Son Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+17
47.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 17 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
49.9%
Aleva Hifo run for 1 yd to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+6
50.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 6 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+5
51.5%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 5 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
53.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 15 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
54.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 22 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
56.3%
Ty'Son Williams run for 1 yd to the USC 16Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+8
56.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 8 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 1
OPP 8
-1
54.9%
Ty'Son Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 9Similar
Q3 1:12
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+1
55.0%
Dayan Ghanwoloku run for 1 yd to the USC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
15 plays · 92 yds · 5:1853% → 83%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
47.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 10 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
46.4%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+5
46.6%
Kedon Slovis run for 5 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
46.6%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
46.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 15 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
42.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+4
42.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 4 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+7
42.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 7 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
42.1%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+2
42.4%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+6
43.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 6 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
42.8%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
16.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 30 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:2124% → 35%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.3%
Ty'Son Williams run for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+17
24.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 17 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+30
26.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 30 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
30.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Emmanuel Esukpa for 6 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+1
29.9%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 1 yd to the USC 15Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+1
28.0%
Ty'Son Williams run for 1 yd to the USC 14Similar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+32
35.2%
Jake Oldroyd 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:1173% → 71%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
27.1%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the USC 14Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 14
-7
27.6%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-7 Yards) to the USC 7Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 16
OWN 7
+8
25.8%
Markese Stepp run for 8 yds to the USC 15 Markese Stepp fumbled, recovered by USCSimilar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
28.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
29.5%
Ben Griffiths punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Aleva Hifo at the BYU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:4537% → 79%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+35
36.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 35 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
41.3%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 1 yd to the USC 16Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
78.5%
Zach Wilson run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 3:3930% → 55%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
70.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 13 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
69.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
66.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
66.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the USC 44Similar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+5
69.5%
Markese Stepp run for 5 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
68.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 9 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
66.6%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
70.1%
Markese Stepp run for no gain to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
69.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+5
72.6%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
69.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+52
45.0%
Chase McGrath 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:4956% → 56%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
56.0%
Ty'Son Williams run for 7 yds to the BYU 32 BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the BYU 17Similar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 18
OWN 17
+8
55.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 8 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
54.7%
Zach Wilson run for 4 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
56.4%
Jake Oldroyd punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4149% → 48%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
50.9%
USC Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-9 Yards) to the USC 10Similar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+15
51.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 15 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 4
OWN 25
-5
49.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 20Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+5
52.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 25FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0065% → 78%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
64.7%
Ty'Son Williams run for 1 yd to the USC 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-2
64.7%
Zach Wilson sacked by Marlon Tuipulotu and Drake Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 26Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
61.4%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
78.4%
Jake Oldroyd 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26Uncategorized
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0029% → 24%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
70.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 26Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+5
74.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the BYU 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
76.4%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted Dayan Ghanwoloku return for no gain to the BYU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:41
Zach Wilson run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+37.2
TD · Q4 10:45
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 30 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
-25.9
FG · Q4 1:43
Chase McGrath 52 yd FG GOOD
-24.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com