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FRES

Fresno State 23 at USC 31

USC
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-3.2USC 76.3%Cesar Silva 46 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 17 · Q3 8:25
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:25 · Cesar Silva 46 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Pregame prior+16.3Home team on offense+1.5Garbage-time factor+0.7Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:54: Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 34 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +4.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:25: Cesar Silva 46 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +3.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:11: Asa Fuller kickoff for 65 yds , Velus Jones Jr. return for 100 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +11.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:51: Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +6.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:53: Jorge Reyna pass complete to Chris Coleman for 8 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +11.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 3:31FRES 4th & 2 at USC 27, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.4%−0.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−2.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:40USC 4th & 13 at USC 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:35FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 33, down 11
    Close callPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:49USC 4th & 5 at FRES 20, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:02FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 45, down 14
    Close callPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:54USC 4th & 9 at USC 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:36FRES 4th & 20 at FRES 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:25FRES 4th & 2 at USC 29, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.6%−1.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−7.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:26FRES 4th & 10 at USC 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    11.7%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:18FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:23FRES 4th & 5 at USC 11, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−3.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:56USC 4th & 4 at USC 33, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:23FRES 4th & 7 at USC 15, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−2.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:39USC 4th & 1 at FRES 44, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    93.0%−1.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:56FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 49, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 10:34USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:45USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:54FRES Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:11USC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:51USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:53FRES Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
15 plays · 81 yds · 4:1687% → 86%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
86.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 4 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+8
86.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 8 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
86.5%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
86.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+9
86.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 9 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
86.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 13 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
86.3%
JT Daniels run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+9
86.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 9 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
86.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 5 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+6
86.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 6 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
86.0%
USC Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+2
85.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 2 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+10
85.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Stephen Carr for 10 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+8
86.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Stephen Carr for 8 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:5714% → 14%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
86.1%
Jalen Cropper run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
86.0%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jamal GlaspieSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
86.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 5 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+5
85.9%
Jorge Reyna run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 47 Jorge Reyna fumbled, forced by Marlon Tuipulotu, recovered by USC Hunter EcholsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:1586% → 88%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
86.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+16
86.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 16 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
86.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+3
86.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
87.8%
Stephen Carr run for 14 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 4:0513% → 14%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
87.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 3 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+13
87.2%
Jorge Reyna run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
87.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 4 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+14
87.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 14 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
86.8%
Jorge Reyna run for 3 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-15
86.7%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the USC 47Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 22
OPP 47
-1
87.3%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Christian Rector for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 48Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 23
OPP 48
+21
87.6%
Jorge Reyna run for 21 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+45
85.7%
Cesar Silva 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:3586% → 85%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
86.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Vavae MalepeaiSimilar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
86.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-15
85.7%
USC Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (-15 Yards) to the USC 20Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 21
OWN 20
+5
85.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the USC 25Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 16
OWN 25
+3
85.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 13
OWN 28
+47
85.3%
Ben Griffiths punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FRESNOST 30 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dorrzel Hicks) to the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5514% → 14%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
85.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
85.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Zane PopeSimilar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
85.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:4186% → 88%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
85.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+16
86.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 16 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
86.3%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+28
86.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 28 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
86.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 4 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+1
87.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
86.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
88.3%
Chase McGrath 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3013% → 13%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
87.4%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Derrion GrimSimilar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
87.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+7
87.5%
Jorge Reyna run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+3
87.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 50 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for 3 yds to the USC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5988% → 88%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
88.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 2 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 8
OWN 10
-1
88.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 9Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 9
OWN 9
0
88.2%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 9:54
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
87.8%
Ben Griffiths punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the USC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:5313% → 17%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
87.2%
Jorge Reyna run for 13 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
86.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 38Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+4
87.6%
Jorge Reyna run for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+34
82.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 34 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11INT
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:1585% → 86%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.6%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
84.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Stephen Carr for 9 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
85.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
85.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 13 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
85.4%
JT Daniels run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+26
85.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 26 yds to the FrsSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
85.5%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
85.5%
JT Daniels pass intercepted, touchback. Justin Rice return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:5216% → 16%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
83.6%
Jorge Reyna run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
82.7%
Jorge Reyna run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
83.3%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Chris ColemanSimilar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
83.5%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-10
84.0%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Isaiah Pola-Mao for a loss of 10 yards to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 20
OWN 20
0
84.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 60 yds, downed at the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13FUMBLE
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:0284% → 84%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.0%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
83.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 14 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
84.1%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
83.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+13
83.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 13 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
84.9%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+7
84.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Stephen Carr for 7 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
85.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 19 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
85.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Stephen Carr for 1 yd to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+5
84.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 4
OPP 15
-14
84.2%
JT Daniels sacked by Justin Rice for a loss of 14 yards to the FrsSt 29 JT Daniels fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Jace Fuamatu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:1718% → 19%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
82.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for no gain to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+13
82.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 13 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
81.2%
Jorge Reyna run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-2
81.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15FUMBLE
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:5417% → 21%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.9%
Jalen Cropper run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
81.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.1%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Juan RodriguezSimilar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
82.3%
Jalen Cropper run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
50
+7
80.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 7 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+7
80.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+27
80.4%
Cam Sutton run for 27 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
78.9%
Jorge Reyna run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 12 Jorge Reyna fumbled, recovered by USC Juliano FalanikoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:0683% → 83%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
83.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+3
83.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+15
82.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
83.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 35Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+2
83.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 2 yds Tyler Vaughns fumbled, forced by Arron Mosby, recovered by FrsSt Jaron BryantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0920% → 24%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
80.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 42Similar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+4
80.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+6
80.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 6 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+3
79.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 3 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+46
76.3%
Cesar Silva 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:2613% → 11%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
87.1%
Jorge Reyna run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 1
OWN 27
0
86.6%
Jorge Reyna run for no gain to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+3
87.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
86.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 13 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
86.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
85.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+5
86.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
86.6%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
86.7%
Jorge Reyna run for no gain to the USC 44Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
87.3%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Zane PopeSimilar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
88.6%
Blake Cusick punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:2989% → 97%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
89.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds to the USC 27 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Erik Krommenhoek) to the USC 17Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 13
OWN 17
+8
89.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 8 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
89.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+27
88.8%
Stephen Carr run for 27 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+41
90.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 41 yds to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
90.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Deshawn Ruffin) to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q3 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:065% → 4%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
95.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 4
OWN 33
0
95.5%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Josh HokitSimilar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-7
95.8%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Brandon Pili for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 0:18
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
96.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 33 yds, downed at the USC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.0%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted Jaron Bryant return for no gain to the FrsSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23FG
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:384% → 8%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+52
96.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 52 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
95.7%
Jorge Reyna run for 12 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
95.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for 5 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+6
95.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
95.6%
Jorge Reyna run for 5 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
95.6%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
96.0%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Josh HokitSimilar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
92.5%
Cesar Silva 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1296% → 96%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
95.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
95.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
96.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Vavae MalepeaiSimilar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
95.9%
Ben Griffiths punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 3:276% → 17%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
94.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for 7 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+5
94.5%
Jalen Cropper run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
94.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for 12 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
94.2%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
94.3%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Derrion GrimSimilar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+27
94.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Chris Coleman for 27 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
93.6%
Jorge Reyna run for 3 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
93.6%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Josh HokitSimilar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
94.2%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+7
94.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 7 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
93.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q4 6:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
82.6%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Chris Coleman for 8 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26DOWNS
12 plays · 25 yds · 3:4191% → 97%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
91.1%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+4
91.1%
Kedon Slovis run for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
90.9%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
93.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 3 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+7
94.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
94.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
94.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
94.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 1
OPP 44
-5
97.2%
Kedon Slovis run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27INT
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:4813% → 17%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
87.1%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Derrion GrimSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
87.5%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Derrion GrimSimilar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
89.3%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Zane PopeSimilar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 10
OWN 49
+36
90.6%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Chris Coleman for 36 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
83.0%
Jorge Reyna pass intercepted, touchback. Isaiah Pola-Mao return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 28END OF GAME
8 plays · 9 yds · 1:0898% → 99%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
98.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
98.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-4
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 33Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-4
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:11
Asa Fuller kickoff for 65 yds , Velus Jones Jr. return for 100 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q4 6:53
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Chris Coleman for 8 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)
-11.2
TD · Q3 1:51
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com