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UCLA

UCLA 35 at USC 52

USC
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:48 · Chase McGrath 45 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 144Pregame prior+12.7Home team on offense+20.9Score differential+10.5Garbage-time factor+9.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:06: Michael Pittman Jr. 4 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Chase McGrath Kick) — USC win probability +6.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:54: Chase Cota 7 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick) — UCLA win probability +9.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:52: Tyler Vaughns 49 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Chase McGrath Kick) — USC win probability +7.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:16: Joshua Kelley 1 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick) — UCLA win probability +12.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:39: Stephen Carr 2 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick) — USC win probability +5.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UCLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 9:31USC 4th & 6 at USC 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:22UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 28, up 7
    Close callPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:13USC 4th & 1 at UCLA 13, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%−0.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    75.7%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:30UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:43UCLA 4th & 10 at USC 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.6%
    42% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:34UCLA 4th & 11 at UCLA 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:52USC 4th & 13 at USC 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−2.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:26UCLA 4th & 15 at UCLA 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:46UCLA 4th & 17 at UCLA 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:48USC 4th & 8 at UCLA 27, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−3.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:01UCLA 4th & 17 at USC 33, down 17
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:09UCLA 4th & 7 at USC 23, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:12USC 4th & 18 at USC 27, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:53UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:38UCLA 4th & 1 at USC 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:08UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:40USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:16UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:39USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:06USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:26USC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:20USC Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:20UCLA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:54UCLA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:52USC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 12:16UCLA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:39USC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:4616% → 18%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
84.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 9 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+2
84.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 2 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
84.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jaylen ErwinSimilar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
84.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 9 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
84.0%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the UCLA 37Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+5
83.9%
USC Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Briton Allen) to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
83.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 11 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+38
83.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 38 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for no gain to the USC 9Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
82.2%
Demetric Felton 9 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:3683% → 82%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
82.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
82.3%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Krys Barnes for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 32Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+9
82.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 9 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
81.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
81.6%
Ben Griffiths punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0918% → 19%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
81.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 1 yd to the UCLA 21Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
81.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 7 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
80.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
81.0%
Wade Lees punt for 40 yds, downed at the USC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:0981% → 81%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+24
81.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 24 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+22
81.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 22 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
81.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Stephen CarrSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
81.1%
Stephen Carr run for 9 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
80.7%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the UCLA 13Similar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+31
81.0%
Chase McGrath 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4219% → 20%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
80.5%
Joshua Kelley run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 24Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
80.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 5 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-3
80.3%
Wade Lees punt for 35 yds , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 33 Amon-Ra St. Brown fumbled, forced by Johnny Den Bleyker, recovered by UCLA Johnny Den BleykerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:0621% → 22%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
78.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 3 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
78.4%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
78.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted Isaac Taylor-Stuart return for no gain to the USC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:4279% → 82%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+20
79.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 20 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
79.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 7 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+9
79.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 9 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+46
79.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 46 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.8%
Vavae Malepeai 1 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2319% → 26%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
80.8%
Joshua Kelley run for 8 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
80.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
80.3%
Kelley, Joshua rush for 4 yards to the UCLA40, PENALTY UCLA holding (Martinez, Mike) 10 yards to the UCLA26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+5
80.6%
Demetric Felton run for 5 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+10
80.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 10 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+23
79.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 23 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
79.2%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jason Rodriguez) to the USC 31Similar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 5
OPP 31
+3
78.7%
Kazmeir Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+2
78.4%
Kazmeir Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+23
78.2%
Kazmeir Allen run for 23 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
74.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson 3 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3676% → 80%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.4%
Kenan Christon run for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
77.0%
Kedon Slovis run for 7 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
76.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 21 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
77.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+13
77.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 13 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
77.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 6 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+7
77.5%
Stephen Carr run for 7 yds to the UCLA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
77.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 6 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+8
77.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 8 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.4%
Michael Pittman Jr. 1 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:5522% → 23%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kazmeir AllenSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
78.6%
Kazmeir Allen run for 11 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
77.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 12 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
76.4%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the UCLA 48Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+16
76.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 16 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
76.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Kana'i Mauga for a loss of 10 yards to the USC 46Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 20
OPP 46
0
76.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 20
OPP 46
+10
77.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 10 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+54
77.3%
JJ Molson 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:3779% → 85%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
78.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 11 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
79.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+13
79.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 13 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
79.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 19 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-15
79.8%
Slovis, Kedon pass complete to Pittman Jr., Michael for 4 yards to the UCLA10, PENALTY USC illegal use of hands (Dedich, Justin) 15 yards to the UCLA29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 25
OPP 29
+9
79.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 16
OPP 20
+15
79.1%
Slovis, Kedon pass incomplete to Vaughns, Tyler, PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Gates, Elijah) 15 yards to the UCLA5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q2 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-8
79.6%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Lokeni Toailoa for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 13Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+5
79.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 5 yds to the UCLA 8Similar
Q2 2:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
78.5%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Keisean Lucier-South) to the UCLA 4Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
84.7%
Michael Pittman Jr. 4 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:3116% → 16%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
83.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 15 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
82.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
83.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 39Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
83.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Devin AsiasiSimilar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
84.5%
Wade Lees punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:4284% → 84%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
83.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
83.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 5 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-8
83.4%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Josh Woods for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 15Similar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
83.5%
Ben Griffiths punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2616% → 15%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
84.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kyle PhilipsSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
84.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 3 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-8
84.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Drake Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 38Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 15
OWN 38
0
85.0%
Wade Lees punt for 47 yds , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for no gain to the USC 38 USC Penalty, Illegal Block (7 Yards) to the USC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2684% → 86%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
83.7%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the USC 8Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+5
84.7%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 13
-2
85.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3385% → 91%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
84.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kenan Christon for 14 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
85.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+3
85.9%
Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
85.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 17 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
91.3%
Drake London 32 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:399% → 8%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
90.8%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (15 Yards) to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
90.9%
Thompson-Robinson, Dorian rush for 5 yards to the UCLA49, PENALTY UCLA holding 10 yards to the UCLA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+3
91.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 17
OWN 37
0
92.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 17
OWN 37
0
92.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Demetric FeltonSimilar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 17
OWN 37
0
92.2%
Wade Lees punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 3:2692% → 97%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
91.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+14
91.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 14 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
92.0%
Stephen Carr run for 14 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
93.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
93.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 13 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
93.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 3 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
93.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 5 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+18
94.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 18 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
94.3%
Kedon Slovis run for 2 yds to the UCLA 9 Kedon Slovis fumbled, forced by Elisha Guidry, recovered by USC Stephen Carr for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (Lokeni Toailoa) to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
94.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the UCLA 8Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
97.3%
Vavae Malepeai 8 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:593% → 7%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 9 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
96.8%
Joshua Kelley run for 11 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
96.8%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-1
96.9%
Joshua Kelley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+53
93.2%
Devin Asiasi 53 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:3194% → 95%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
94.3%
Stephen Carr run for 46 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
94.9%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 32Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 13
OPP 32
0
94.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+5
94.7%
Slovis, Kedon pass incomplete to Vaughns, Tyler, PENALTY UCLA offside (Lucier-South, Keisean) 5 yards to the UCLA27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
95.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q3 4:48
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+45
94.5%
Chase McGrath 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:546% → 16%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
94.1%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+19
94.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 19 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
94.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 14 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
94.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 11 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
93.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 18 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
93.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
93.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 2 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
83.7%
Chase Cota 7 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:5787% → 96%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
87.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 11 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
87.5%
Kedon Slovis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 34Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+9
87.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 9 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+8
88.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
96.0%
Tyler Vaughns 49 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 2:315% → 18%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+36
95.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 36 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
95.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+12
95.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 12 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
94.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jordan WilsonSimilar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
95.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-7
95.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 3 yds to the USC 23 UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Devin Asiasi) to the USC 33Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 17
OPP 33
0
95.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Devin AsiasiSimilar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 17
OPP 33
+21
96.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 21 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
94.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 11 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.5%
Joshua Kelley 1 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3688% → 98%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.9%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
87.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 12 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
88.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 13 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
89.4%
Stephen Carr run for 6 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+16
89.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 16 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
89.8%
USC Penalty, False Start (Justin Dedich) to the UCLA 32Similar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
89.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+5
89.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+21
89.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 21 yds to the UCLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
91.7%
Slovis, Kedon pass incomplete to London, Drake, PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Holmes, Darnay) 4 yards to the UCLA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q4 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.5%
Stephen Carr 2 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 25DOWNS
13 plays · 52 yds · 3:293% → 3%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
96.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 20 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
96.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 3 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
96.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Demetric FeltonSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+26
96.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 26 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
95.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 7 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-3
95.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 22Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+7
96.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 7 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
96.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jordan WilsonSimilar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-5
96.0%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Jake Burton) to the USC 20Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 15
OPP 20
0
96.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kyle PhilipsSimilar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+8
96.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 8 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 7
OPP 23
-11
97.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Talanoa Hufanga for a loss of 11 yards to the USC 23 UCLA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Dorian Thompson-Robinson) to the USC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 4 yds · 1:5798% → 99%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
97.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 7 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+5
98.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
98.2%
USC Penalty, False Start (Tyler Vaughns) to the USC 30Similar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+4
98.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-10
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the USC 24Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 21
OWN 24
+3
98.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 18
OWN 27
0
98.7%
Ben Griffiths punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:341% → 1%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.3%
Austin Burton run for no gain to the UCLA 32Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
99.3%
Austin Burton pass complete to Demetric Felton for no gain to the UCLA 32Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+6
99.4%
Austin Burton pass complete to Kyle Philips for 6 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+7
99.3%
Austin Burton pass complete to Chase Cota for 7 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.3%
Austin Burton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.3%
Austin Burton run for 6 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
99.2%
Austin Burton pass complete to Kyle Philips for 3 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-2
99.2%
Demetric Felton run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:16
Joshua Kelley 1 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)
-12.1
TD · Q3 1:54
Chase Cota 7 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)
-9.7
TD · Q4 14:52
Tyler Vaughns 49 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Chase McGrath Kick)
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com