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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreUCLA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:08 · Ben Lennon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:39: Tyler Huntley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +1.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:59: Zack Moss run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +3.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:24: Mika Tafua 68 Yd Fumble Return (Jadon Redding Kick) — UTAH win probability +3.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:26: Zack Moss run for 38 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +3.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:31: Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 69 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 8:05UCLA 4th & 25 at UTAH 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snapGo for it10.8%−0.26% to convertField goalTheir call10.9%66% to makePunt10.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 12:00UCLA 4th & 6 at UTAH 24, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snapGo for it14.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call14.1%68% to makePunt12.7%−1.4average punt
- Q2 1:12UCLA 4th & 9 at UCLA 33, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it5.8%−0.631% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q3 9:30UCLA 4th & 24 at UCLA 45, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q3 8:27UTAH 4th & 7 at UTAH 22, up 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q3 7:02UCLA 4th & 3 at UCLA 39, down 32Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 5:08UTAH 4th & 2 at UTAH 23, up 32Close callWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%−<0.156% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.7%average punt
- Q4 14:10UTAH 4th & 4 at UCLA 38, up 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%48% to convertField goal99.7%−0.138% to makePunt99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:45UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 31, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:52UTAH 4th & 1 at UCLA 49, up 46Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 1:39UTAH Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.6%97% to makeGo for two87.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:59UTAH Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.9%97% to makeGo for two88.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:24UTAH Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.7%97% to makeGo for two93.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:26UTAH Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:31UTAH Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:39UTAH Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:24UTAH Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUCLADrive 1FG17 plays · 50 yds · 6:478% → 9%
Q1 13:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
92.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 15 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
92.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 5 yds to the Utah 48Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+15
91.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 15 yds to the Utah 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+10
91.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 10 yds to the Utah 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
91.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 6 yds to the Utah 3Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-9
90.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Julian Blackmon and Terrell Burgess for a loss of 9 yards to the Utah 12Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-13
90.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Bradlee Anae for a loss of 13 yards to the Utah 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:1891% → 90%
Q1 7:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
90.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 9 yds to the Utah 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+10
89.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 10 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
89.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 17 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
89.7%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Lokeni Toailoa and Jason Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 37Similar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
89.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 11 yds to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3INT7 plays · 40 yds · 2:2310% → 12%
Q1 0:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+39
89.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 39 yds to the Utah 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
88.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for a loss of 4 yards to the Utah 38Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 11
OPP 35
0
88.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted, touchback. Julian Blackmon return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4FUMBLE1 play · 8 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
88.7%
Demari Simpkins run for 8 yds to the Utah 28 Demari Simpkins fumbled, forced by Keisean Lucier-South, recovered by UCLA Darnay HolmesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5MISSED FG5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5212% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6TD11 plays · 76 yds · 4:5688% → 92%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
88.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 12 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
88.4%
Moss, Zack rush for loss of 1 yard to the UTAH47, PENALTY UTAH holding (Ford, Nick) 10 yards to the UTAH38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+15
87.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 15 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
88.1%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 21 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7FUMBLE RETURN TD14 plays · 43 yds · 4:329% → 7%
UCLADrive 8PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:036% → 6%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
94.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 5 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+9
93.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 9 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
93.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 1 yd to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+52
94.3%
Wade Lees punt for 42 yds UTAH Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Utah 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9TD7 plays · 85 yds · 0:4195% → 98%
UCLADrive 10END OF HALF5 plays · 28 yds · 0:154% → 3%
UTAHDrive 11TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2198% → 99%
UCLADrive 12PUNT14 plays · 20 yds · 3:561% → 0%
Q3 12:52
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+16
99.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 16 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 2 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+15
99.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 15 yds to the Utah 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 14
OPP 45
-10
99.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Bradlee Anae for a loss of 10 yards to the UCLA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q3 8:27
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
99.6%
Ben Lennon punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:200% → 0%
UTAHDrive 15DOWNS5 plays · 6 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16FUMBLE7 plays · -4 yds · 3:110% → 0%
Q3 1:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
99.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by TEAM for a loss of 15 yards to the Utah 30 Dorian Thompson-Robinson fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by Utah Terrell Burgess , return for 0 yards , return for 5 yds to the Utah 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17DOWNS5 plays · 22 yds · 2:33100% → 100%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+26
99.8%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 26 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+4
99.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Solomon Enis for 4 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 4
OPP 38
-10
99.9%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Lokeni Toailoa for a loss of 10 yards to the UCLA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18FUMBLE4 plays · 47 yds · 1:070% → 0%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+26
99.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 26 yds to the Utah 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
99.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 15 yds to the Utah 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
99.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Mike Martinez for 7 yds to the Utah 4Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 3
OPP 4
-1
99.9%
Demetric Felton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 5 Demetric Felton fumbled, forced by John Penisini, recovered by Utah Josh NurseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19TD6 plays · 95 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q4 11:17
3RD & 11
OWN 4
+7
99.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 7 yds to the Utah 11Similar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 4
OWN 11
+5
99.9%
Lennon, Ben punt 38 yards to the UTAH49, Philips, Kyle return -8 yards to the UCLA43, PENALTY UCLA offside 5 yards to the UTAH16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAH.Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+83
99.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 83 yds for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20INT6 plays · 13 yds · 1:160% → 0%
UTAHDrive 21TD2 plays · 23 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
UCLADrive 22PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 5:45
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
100.0%
Wade Lees punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Demari Simpkins at the Utah 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 23Uncategorized8 plays · 43 yds · 5:12100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:26
Zack Moss run for 38 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q2 6:59
Zack Moss run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q2 2:24
Mika Tafua 68 Yd Fumble Return (Jadon Redding Kick)
+3