Try the model
ND

Notre Dame 45 at Stanford 24

STAN
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Stanford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:17 · Ryan Sanborn punt for 38 yds, downed at the NDame 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Pregame prior−23.2Home team on offense−5.0Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 1:35: Ryan Sanborn 24 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +5.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:29: Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 27 yds for a TD (Ryan Sanborn KICK) — STAN win probability +6.6 pts (now 33%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:01: Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 6 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +8.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 46%).
  4. TD · Q2 1:20: Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 41 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +12.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:10: Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 8 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +9.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 10ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 1:35STAN 4th & 6 at ND 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:13ND 4th & 4 at ND 27, down 3
    Close callPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:08ND 4th & 17 at ND 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:23ND 4th & 6 at STAN 42, down 10
    Close callPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−1.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:16STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 24, up 10
    Close callPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:55STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 49, up 3
    Close callPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:17STAN 4th & 14 at ND 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    25.7%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:45ND 4th & 11 at STAN 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−7.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:45STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 34, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:16ND 4th & 1 at ND 38, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:02STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:09ND 4th & 2 at STAN 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.2%−1.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    64.4%−8.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:05STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 31, down 11
    Close callPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:44ND 4th & 1 at ND 18, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%−1.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:36ND 4th & 9 at STAN 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−4.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:30STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−1.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:30STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:05ND 4th & 2 at STAN 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%−1.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−2.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:00ND 4th & 12 at STAN 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:26STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:54ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:29STAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:01ND Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:20ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:10ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:10ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:54STAN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3413% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
13.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 9 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
13.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
13.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 13 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
13.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 20 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+24
13.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 24 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
13.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the NDame 5Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
15.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Sanborn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:2785% → 85%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
15.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 10 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Gabe Reid) to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+20
15.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 20 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+24
15.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Tony Jones Jr. for 24 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
15.2%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-5
15.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
15.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Tony Jones Jr. for 16 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3FG
19 plays · 82 yds · 8:1515% → 21%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
15.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 11 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
15.5%
Austin Jones run for 10 yds to the Stanf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
15.5%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the Stanf 34Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+2
15.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+13
15.4%
Davis Mills run for 13 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
15.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 9 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
15.8%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Colby Parkinson, broken up by Alohi GilmanSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
15.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
15.8%
Mills,D pass incomplete to Parkinson,C, PENALTY ND holding (K. HAMILTON) 10 yards to the ND29, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
15.9%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael Wilson, broken up by Donte VaughnSimilar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
15.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 9 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+2
15.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the NDame 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+16
15.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 16 yds to the NDame 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
15.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the NDame 1Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
15.6%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 6Similar
Q1 1:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
20.8%
Ryan Sanborn 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:1679% → 77%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
20.7%
Ian Book sacked by Jovan Swann for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 16Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+11
20.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 11 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
22.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
Q1 0:13
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
22.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Michael Wilson at the Stanf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0222% → 22%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
21.8%
Nathaniel Peat run for 6 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+4
22.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 4 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
22.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 3 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
22.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 5 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
22.4%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
21.9%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
23.5%
Ian Book run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 5Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+11
23.8%
I. BOOK pass incomplete to B. WRIGHT (Pryts,A), PENALTY STAN pass interference (Pryts,A) 11 yards to the ND16, 1ST DOWN ND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
23.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy, broken up by Casey ToohillSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
23.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-9
24.2%
I. BOOK pass complete to T. JONES for 14 yards to the ND32 (Kelly,KB), PENALTY ND holding (J. PATTERSON) 9 yards to the ND9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 17
OWN 9
0
24.3%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 17
OWN 9
0
24.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Michael Wilson at the NDame 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:4226% → 33%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
26.1%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+17
25.9%
Davis Mills run for 17 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
26.4%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
26.4%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+27
33.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 27 yds for a TD (Ryan Sanborn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:0066% → 61%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
33.6%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, false start (Aaron Banks) to the NDame 19Similar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+16
33.7%
Braden Lenzy run for 16 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
33.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
33.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the NDame 36Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+18
33.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 18 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
31.8%
Ian Book run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+5
32.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 5 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
36.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase Claypool, broken up by Thomas BookerSimilar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
39.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Michael Wilson at the Stanf 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
38.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
38.1%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Osiris St. BrownSimilar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+3
37.4%
Davis Mills run for 3 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
36.7%
Ryan Sanborn punt blocked by Isaiah Foskey blocked by Isaiah FoskeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4462% → 69%
Q2 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
37.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 2Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
38.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the Stanf 1Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
39.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, false start (Trevor Ruhland) to the Stanf 6Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
30.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 6 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
34.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 8 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+5
36.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 5 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
36.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 5 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
36.3%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Osiris St. BrownSimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
35.4%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
34.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 0:2165% → 79%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
35.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 21 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
33.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 14 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
20.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 41 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:5623% → 22%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
23.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 7 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
23.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 7 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
23.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 13 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
25.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+12
24.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 12 yds to the STANFORD 41 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
25.9%
Davis Mills sacked by Jamir Jones and Adetokunbo Ogundeji for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 45Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 14
OPP 45
0
23.6%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Cameron ScarlettSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 14
OPP 45
0
22.7%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
21.9%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 38 yds, downed at the NDame 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14MISSED FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:1576% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
23.9%
I. BOOK pass incomplete to C. CLAYPOOL, PENALTY STAN pass interference (Eboh,O) 15 yards to the ND39, 1ST DOWN ND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
22.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the NDame 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+8
22.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 8 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
22.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
22.1%
Braden Lenzy run for 3 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
22.1%
Ian Book run for 6 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+5
22.1%
Jafar Armstrong run for 5 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
21.6%
Jafar Armstrong run for 11 yds to the Stanf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
21.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase Claypool, broken up by Thomas BookerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-1
21.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 25
0
22.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+43
26.5%
Jonathan Doerer 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.0%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
27.2%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Nathaniel Peat, broken up by Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahSimilar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
26.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 6 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
26.2%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 37 yds, downed at the NDame 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
26.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tommy TrembleSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
26.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 5 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+4
26.9%
Ian Book run for 4 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
26.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 5 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
29.0%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
28.0%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+56
26.8%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the STANFORD 28 NOTRE DAME Penalty, personal foul (14 Yards) to the NDame 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 3:5973% → 87%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
26.7%
I. BOOK pass incomplete to C. CLAYPOOL, PENALTY ND pass interference (C. KMET) 7 yards to the ND7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 17
OWN 7
+43
27.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 43 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
50
+7
24.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 7 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+6
23.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 6 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
24.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tony Jones Jr.Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+8
24.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 8 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
23.9%
Ian Book run for no gain to the Stanf 29Similar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+26
25.9%
Ian Book run for 26 yds to the Stanf 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
22.8%
J. ARMSTRONG rush for 2 yards to the STAN1 (Booker,T), PENALTY ND illegal motion (L. KEYS III) 5 yards to the STAN8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
13.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 8 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
15.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 6 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+2
15.6%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
15.1%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Colby Parkinson, broken up by Kyle HamiltonSimilar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
14.5%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 60 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
15.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 8Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+10
16.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 10 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 1
OWN 18
0
16.1%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
16.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 33 yds , Michael Wilson returns for no gain to the Stanf 48 Michael Wilson fumbled, recovered by NDame John ShannonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:3488% → 92%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
12.4%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive offside (Gabe Reid) to the Stanf 43Similar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+6
12.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for 6 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
12.4%
C'Bo Flemister run for 12 yds to the Stanf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
12.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
12.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the Stanf 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
12.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Cole Kmet, broken up by Jovan SwannSimilar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
7.6%
Jonathan Doerer 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
10.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 9 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 1
OWN 32
0
10.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
10.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+5
10.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 5 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
10.6%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Osiris St. BrownSimilar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
10.2%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
9.9%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
9.8%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 35 yds, downed at the NDame 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 5:5594% → 100%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
6.1%
Ian Book run for 4 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-10
6.1%
J. ARMSTRONG rush for 9 yards to the ND41 (Head,S;Swann,J), PENALTY ND holding (D. GIBBONS) 10 yards to the ND22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 16
OWN 22
+28
6.3%
Jafar Armstrong run for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
50
+11
5.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 11 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
5.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
5.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 4 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 2
OPP 31
0
5.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for no gain to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+5
6.6%
Braden Lenzy run for 5 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
3.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+24
3.3%
Braden Lenzy run for 24 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.5%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 24TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:121% → 4%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
1.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 14 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
1.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 12 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
1.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 11 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
1.5%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
1.4%
Davis Mills run for 2 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-5
1.3%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (Colby Parkinson) to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 13
OPP 28
+10
1.3%
Mills,D pass incomplete to Scarlett,C, PENALTY ND holding (A. BILAL) 10 yards to the ND18, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
1.5%
Davis Mills run for 9 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+9
3.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for 9 yds for a TD (Ryan Sanborn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:5198% → 99%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
1.7%
Jahmir Smith run for 4 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-1
1.7%
Jahmir Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-5
1.5%
Jahmir Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 48Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
1.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 44 yds, downed at the Stanf 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 26FUMBLE TD
1 play · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
0.6%
Davis Mills sacked by Adetokunbo Ogundeji for a loss of 4 yards Davis Mills fumbled, recovered by NDame Khalid Kareem , return for 0 yards for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 27 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
0.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Scooter Harrington for 12 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
0.6%
Austin Jones run for 9 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+6
0.7%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:20
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 41 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q3 3:10
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 8 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
-9.7
TD · Q2 3:01
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 6 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
-8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com