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STAN

Stanford 27 at UCF 45

UCF
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:49 · Ryan Sanborn punt for 38 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 2 yds to the UCF 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Home team on offense+1.7Pregame prior+25.2Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.2Blowout margin+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:21: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 38 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK) — UCF win probability +3.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:49: Austin Jones run for 35 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +3.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 4:33: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 38 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK) — UCF win probability +4.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:00: Otis Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK) — UCF win probability +3.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:54: K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 24 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +1.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5STAN made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 14:40STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:34STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:49STAN 4th & 9 at STAN 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:54STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:18UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 40, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:15STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:37UCF 4th & 4 at STAN 4, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.1%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:43STAN 4th & 7 at UCF 49, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:19STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 49, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:24UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 31, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:45STAN 4th & 1 at UCF 18, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:17STAN 4th & 15 at UCF 18, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:14UCF 4th & 1 at STAN 25, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:57STAN 4th & 10 at UCF 17, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:37UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 38, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:57STAN 4th & 20 at STAN 36, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:41UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:44UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:21UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 5:49STAN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 4:33UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:00UCF Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:54STAN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:17UCF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2123% → 23%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
77.4%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
77.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q1 14:40
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
77.3%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:40
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+43
77.4%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 33 yds, downed at the UCF 33 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+43
77.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 33 yds, downed at the UCF 33 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UCF 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 1:5177% → 78%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
77.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 5 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
77.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+9
77.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 9 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
77.1%
Dillon Gabriel run for 5 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
77.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 48Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 15
OPP 48
0
77.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 15
OPP 48
+20
76.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 20 yds to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
77.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 28 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3INT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4923% → 23%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.5%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
77.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 9 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+40
77.4%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted Aaron Robinson return for 40 yds to the Stanf 1Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+40
77.4%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted Aaron Robinson return for 40 yds to the Stanf 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.9%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4722% → 21%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Stanf 26Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
78.6%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
78.7%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+2
78.8%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 38 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 2 yds to the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:1479% → 83%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
79.2%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+13
79.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
50
0
79.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 10
50
+9
79.4%
Otis Anderson run for 9 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
79.9%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
82.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 38 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:2718% → 21%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
81.7%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 16Similar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+19
82.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 19 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
82.1%
Austin Jones run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
50
+5
82.1%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
82.1%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+10
82.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 10 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
78.9%
Austin Jones run for 35 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 0:5781% → 85%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
80.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 7 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+6
81.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 16 yds to the STANFORD 42 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
81.3%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+8
81.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 8 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
85.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 38 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:5615% → 14%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
84.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 10 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
84.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 8 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
84.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
85.1%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-13
85.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the Stanf 34Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 23
OWN 34
+13
86.4%
Austin Jones run for 13 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q1 0:54
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
86.4%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 45 yds, downed at the UCF 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:2286% → 88%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
86.0%
Otis Anderson run for 8 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 2
OWN 16
-8
86.2%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-8 Yards) to the UCF 8Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+27
86.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 27 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
87.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
86.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+5
87.0%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
87.9%
Andrew Osteen punt for 48 yds, downed at the Stanf 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3013% → 11%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
87.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 7 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+1
87.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 1 yd to the Stanf 20Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+3
88.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
88.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 22Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+5
88.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 5 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
89.0%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+2
89.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 51 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 2 yds to the UCF 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:2390% → 92%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
89.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+2
90.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+11
89.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 11 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
91.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+16
91.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 16 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
92.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 17 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+21
91.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 18 yds to the Stanf 5 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Roughing Passer (3 Yards) to the Stanf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
92.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the Stanf 2Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
91.8%
Brandon Wimbush run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 4Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
92.3%
Dylan Barnas 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:4510% → 9%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
90.3%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the Stanf 36Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
90.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 4 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+8
90.9%
K.J. Costello run for 8 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
90.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 3 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
90.8%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
91.2%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:43
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
91.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14TD
8 plays · 96 yds · 3:2394% → 98%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
93.5%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+3
93.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 3 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+6
93.8%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
94.1%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-8 Yards) to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 18
OWN 8
+73
94.1%
Greg McCrae run for 73 yds to the Stanf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
94.8%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the Stanf 17Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+16
94.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jake Hescock for 16 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.3%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:322% → 2%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
98.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for 14 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.0%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
98.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for no gain to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
98.0%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
98.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
98.3%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the UCF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1699% → 99%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
98.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 2 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
98.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 3 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+21
98.8%
Andrew Osteen punt for 36 yds , Michael Wilson returns for 21 yds to the UCF 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 4:521% → 1%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
98.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
98.9%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+16
99.0%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (16 Yards) to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
98.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Nathaniel Peat for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+4
98.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Jones for 4 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+9
99.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 9 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+5
98.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
99.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 12
OPP 15
0
99.1%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 12
OPP 15
-3
99.2%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+36
99.0%
Jet Toner 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 50 yds · 2:5499% → 100%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.3%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
99.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jake Hescock for 18 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.5%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
99.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+5
99.5%
STANFORD Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the Stanf 49Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+3
99.5%
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
99.6%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+7
99.6%
Greg McCrae run for 7 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
99.6%
Otis Anderson run for 7 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
99.6%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 1
OPP 25
0
99.5%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Stanf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:151% → 2%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 24Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+11
99.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 11 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.6%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
99.7%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
99.7%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+18
99.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 18 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.7%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.7%
Dorian Maddox run for 3 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+14
99.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 14 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
99.7%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
99.8%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+12
99.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 12 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
97.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 24 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:1398% → 100%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
98.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 8 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 2
OWN 41
0
98.6%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+12
98.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jake Hescock for 12 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
98.8%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 15
OWN 48
-2
98.7%
Bentavious Thompson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+13
98.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 13 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+40
98.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 40 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for no gain to the Stanf 1Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jake Hescock for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 3:030% → 0%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 12 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
99.9%
K.J. Costello run for 8 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+25
99.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 25 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
99.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 9 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+4
99.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 4 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.9%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
99.9%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
99.9%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
99.7%
Jet Toner 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.7%
Bentavious Thompson run for 6 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-5
99.8%
Bentavious Thompson run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+2
99.8%
Bentavious Thompson run for 2 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 5:37
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Andrew Osteen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by TEAM at the Stanf 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:330% → 0%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
99.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 14 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
99.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 15 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 5 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
99.8%
Davis Mills pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-15
99.8%
STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Stanf 36Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 20
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Davis Mills pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 20
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:50100% → 99%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
99.8%
Bentavious Thompson run for 30 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
99.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 7 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-10
99.9%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Stanf 48Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+28
99.2%
Quadry Jones run for a loss of 24 yards Quadry Jones fumbled, recovered by Stanf Jonathan McGill , return for 28 yds, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:5999% → 99%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-2
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-3
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 4:33
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 38 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)
+4
TD · Q1 5:49
Austin Jones run for 35 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)
-3.5
TD · Q2 1:00
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com