Try the model
STAN

Stanford 20 at USC 45

USC
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:29: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 39 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +8.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:54: Stephen Carr run for 25 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +11.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q2 0:31: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +9.5 pts (now 67%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:44: Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +11.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:19: Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +6.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 10:03USC 4th & 5 at STAN 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:10USC 4th & 8 at USC 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:47STAN 4th & 3 at USC 14, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.9%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−4.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:21STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 38, up 3
    Close callPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q3 7:51STAN 4th & 13 at USC 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−6.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:31USC 4th & 9 at USC 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−2.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:21STAN 4th & 5 at USC 29, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.2%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−6.7
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:47USC 4th & 1 at STAN 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−1.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:21STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 34, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:25STAN 4th & 8 at USC 37, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:39STAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56STAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:29USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:54USC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:31USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:44USC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:19USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:01USC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1FG
13 plays · 72 yds · 4:5759% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
59.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 3 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+45
59.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 45 yds to the Stanf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
59.4%
Kedon Slovis run for 1 yd to the Stanf 28Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
59.5%
Kedon Slovis run for no gain to the Stanf 28Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+14
59.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 14 yds to the Stanf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
59.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds to the Stanf 6Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+1
59.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the Stanf 5Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+3
59.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the Stanf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
59.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 5Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
60.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q1 10:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
59.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q1 10:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
60.0%
Chase McGrath 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2TD
8 plays · 35 yds · 4:1141% → 44%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
59.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 36Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+11
59.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 11 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
59.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the USC 24Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+11
59.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 11 yds to the USC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
59.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 7 yds to the USC 6 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Wilson) to the USC 16Similar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 13
OPP 16
+1
59.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the USC 15Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+15
56.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 15 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:2357% → 57%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
57.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+20
57.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 20 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
58.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 3 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-1
58.3%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 47Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
57.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
56.8%
Ben Griffiths punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Michael Wilson at the Stanf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:1343% → 51%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
57.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 9 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+16
56.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (15 Yards) to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
55.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 13 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
55.5%
Connor Wedington run for 17 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
54.8%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Osiris St. BrownSimilar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+21
54.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 21 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
54.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the USC 3Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
49.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5551% → 55%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
49.1%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+7
49.0%
Dorian Maddox run for 7 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 3
OPP 14
0
48.8%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q2 13:47
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+32
44.7%
Jet Toner 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1746% → 54%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
46.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Munir McClain for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
46.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
46.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Devon Williams for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
50
+11
45.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 11 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
53.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 39 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:2849% → 54%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+44
51.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for 44 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
48.7%
Davis Mills pass complete to Dorian Maddox for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 34Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+17
48.5%
Dorian Maddox run for 2 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Kana'i Mauga) to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
47.8%
Mills, Davis pass incomplete to Wedington, Connor, PENALTY USC pass interference (Williams, Devon) 9 yards to the USC8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q2 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
47.5%
Scarlett, Cameron rush for loss of 5 yards to the USC13, PENALTY STANFORD holding 10 yards to the USC18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
0
47.5%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q2 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
-1
47.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 19Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
0
46.8%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Cameron ScarlettSimilar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+37
46.1%
Jet Toner 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0345% → 58%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
45.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
44.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
44.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 6 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+29
45.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 29 yds to the Stanf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
46.9%
Kedon Slovis run for 4 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+25
57.9%
Stephen Carr run for 25 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3047% → 47%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
53.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+10
52.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 10 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
52.1%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
52.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
51.5%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+14
53.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 46 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for 14 yds to the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 1:4953% → 67%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
53.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Munir McClain for 6 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+8
55.1%
Kedon Slovis run for 8 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
55.2%
Slovis, Kedon pass incomplete to McClain, Munir, PENALTY USC holding (Richmond, Drew) 10 yards to the USC34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+31
52.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 31 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
57.6%
Kedon Slovis run for 3 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+5
57.6%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (Michael Williams) to the Stanf 27Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+5
57.6%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (Andres Fox) to the Stanf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
57.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 16 yds to the Stanf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
57.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 7Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
67.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11END OF HALF
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:3037% → 34%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
62.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 13 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
60.7%
Mills, Davis rush for 2 yards to the STANFORD42, PENALTY STANFORD holding (Hattis, Henry) 10 yards to the STANFORD30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+10
64.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 10 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+14
66.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 14 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12MISSED FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 7:0336% → 33%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
63.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 22Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
64.1%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+16
65.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 16 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
62.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Nathaniel Peat for 11 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
60.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 9 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 1
OPP 42
-3
59.7%
Davis Mills sacked by Connor Murphy for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 45Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
60.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Scooter Harrington for 5 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
61.9%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
62.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for 6 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+16
62.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 16 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
60.6%
Davis Mills sacked by Jay Tufele for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 22Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 14
OPP 22
0
62.4%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+1
64.7%
Davis Mills run for 1 yd to the USC 21Similar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+39
66.9%
Jet Toner 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2068% → 66%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
68.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 5 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
68.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Josh FaloSimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 5
OWN 26
-4
67.1%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Casey Toohill for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 22Similar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 9
OWN 22
+15
65.8%
Ben Griffiths punt for 51 yds , Michael Wilson returns for 15 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14MISSED FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:1036% → 35%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
64.2%
Dorian Maddox run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 41Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
65.2%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+25
66.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 25 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
60.5%
Dorian Maddox run for 2 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
60.5%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+3
62.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 3 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
64.6%
Jet Toner 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Austin JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:3770% → 86%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
69.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
69.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+21
68.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 21 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
73.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+1
73.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+31
74.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 31 yds to the Stanf 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2216% → 18%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.3%
Mills, Davis pass incomplete to Maddox, Dorian, PENALTY USC pass interference (Gaoteote IV, Palaie) 4 yards to the STANFORD29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
83.9%
Dorian Maddox run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+13
84.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 13 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
82.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-15
82.2%
Davis Mills pass intercepted Greg Johnson return for no gain to the Stanf 43 STANFORD Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Colby Parkinson) to the Stanf 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 3:0288% → 97%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
87.9%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
88.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 4 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
87.7%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the Stanf 30Similar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+12
87.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 12 yds to the Stanf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
88.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 3 yds to the Stanf 15Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+9
90.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 9 yds to the Stanf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:584% → 4%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.3%
Davis Mills run for 4 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
96.2%
Davis Mills run for 3 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
96.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Houston Heimuli for 2 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
96.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the Stanf 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 2:1998% → 100%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
97.5%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+14
97.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 14 yds to the Stanf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
97.8%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 16Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+16
99.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:360% → 0%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
99.6%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+23
99.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 8 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (C.J. Pollard) to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
99.6%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 44Similar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+4
99.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 4 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-8
99.7%
Davis Mills sacked by Hunter Echols and Caleb Tremblay for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 48Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 19
OPP 48
+11
99.7%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 11 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
99.7%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 18 yds · 2:25100% → 100%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
99.8%
Markese Stepp run for 20 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
99.9%
Markese Stepp run for 7 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 3
OPP 30
-4
99.9%
Markese Stepp run for 6 yds to the Stanf 30 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Jackson) to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-5
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:44
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+11.8
TD · Q2 4:54
Stephen Carr run for 25 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+11
TD · Q2 0:31
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com