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WASH

Washington 19 at Oregon State 7

ORST
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2019 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreWASH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:23 · Daniel Rodriguez punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Pregame prior−24.8Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:48: Salvon Ahmed run for 6 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +7.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 9:18: Peyton Henry 33 yd FG GOOD — WASH win probability +7.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:01: Jacob Eason pass intercepted for a TD Jaydon Grant return for 36 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +10.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:40: Richard Newton run for 6 yds to the Wash 42 — WASH win probability +4.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:34: Salvon Ahmed run for 60 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — WASH win probability +14.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 8 of 11WASH made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:23ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:52WASH 4th & 14 at WASH 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:04ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:54WASH 4th & 13 at ORST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00ORST 4th & 2 at WASH 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    31.0%−1.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:41WASH 4th & 7 at ORST 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:36ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 41, down 3
    Close callPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:11WASH 4th & 4 at WASH 20, up 3
    Close callPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:36ORST 4th & 11 at ORST 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:05WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.8%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:41ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 45, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:35WASH 4th & 1 at ORST 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.7%−2.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−2.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:18WASH 4th & 5 at ORST 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−6.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:52ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:39WASH 4th & 4 at ORST 45, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    71.7%−2.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:44ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:28ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 29, down 12
    Close callPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:26WASH 4th & 1 at ORST 44, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%−5.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−3.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:20ORST 4th & 17 at ORST 37, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:38WASH 4th & 6 at ORST 23, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−5.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:36ORST 4th & 11 at ORST 22, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:15WASH 4th & 1 at ORST 25, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WASH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 1:48WASH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:01ORST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:34WASH Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:3324% → 26%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
24.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 10 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-11
24.9%
Jake Luton sacked by Joe Tryon for a loss of 11 yards to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 21
OWN 24
+8
25.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+3
25.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 3 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
25.5%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1374% → 72%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
25.8%
Salvon Ahmed run for 5 yds to the Wash 26Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
26.0%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 4 yds to the Wash 30Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+10
26.3%
Richard Newton run for 10 yds to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
26.3%
WASHINGTON Penalty, False Start (Jacob Kizer) to the Wash 35Similar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 15
OWN 35
-1
26.8%
Richard Newton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 34Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+2
27.1%
Salvon Ahmed run for 2 yds to the Wash 36Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
27.3%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Andre BaccelliaSimilar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
27.6%
Joel Whitford punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jesiah Irish at the OrgSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3827% → 28%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
27.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
27.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 2 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
27.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for no gain to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+5
27.7%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 40 yds , Aaron Fuller returns for 5 yds to the Wash 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4FG
13 plays · 34 yds · 4:5572% → 70%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
28.0%
Salvon Ahmed run for 2 yds to the Wash 38Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+9
28.1%
Salvon Ahmed run for 9 yds to the Wash 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
28.0%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Andre BaccelliaSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
28.3%
Kamari Pleasant run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+7
28.6%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Cade Otton for 7 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
28.4%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Hunter BryantSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
28.6%
Salvon Ahmed run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+13
29.0%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 13 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
28.7%
Richard Newton run for no gain to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-3
28.7%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 7 yds to the OrgSt 20 WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 13
OPP 30
0
29.0%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Hunter BryantSimilar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 13
OPP 30
0
29.8%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Hunter BryantSimilar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+47
29.8%
Peyton Henry 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:3230% → 31%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
29.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 21 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
30.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 5 yds to the Wash 49Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
31.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the Wash 46Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
31.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 46
-2
30.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0471% → 70%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
28.8%
Salvon Ahmed run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 46Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+5
29.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 5 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
29.1%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Terrell BynumSimilar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
30.2%
Joel Whitford punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jesiah Irish at the OrgSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 24 yds · 3:3631% → 31%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
30.5%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Jermar JeffersonSimilar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+10
30.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 10 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
30.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+20
31.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
32.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 8
50
0
33.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Artavis PierceSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 8
50
+10
32.6%
Luton, Jake pass incomplete to Pierce, Artavis, PENALTY WASHINGTON holding (Williams, Cameron) 10 yards to the WASHINGTON40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGONST.Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
33.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the Wash 37Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-16
33.7%
Baylor, B.J. rush for no gain to the WASHINGTON37, PENALTY OREGONST illegal block 16 yards to the OREGONST47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 23
OWN 47
0
32.2%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 23
50
-13
31.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line OREGON ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-16 Yards) to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 36
OWN 34
+1
30.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 52 yds , Aaron Fuller returns for 1 yd to the Wash 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
31.4%
Jacob Eason pass intercepted Nahshon Wright return for no gain to the OrgSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5432% → 32%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
32.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+4
33.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
33.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
32.0%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1368% → 67%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
32.0%
Salvon Ahmed run for 4 yds to the Wash 18Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+2
31.3%
Salvon Ahmed run for 2 yds to the Wash 20Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
32.1%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Hunter BryantSimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
32.9%
Joel Whitford punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jesiah Irish at the OrgSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0433% → 31%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
32.8%
Jake Luton sacked by Levi Onwuzurike and Edefuan Ulofoshio for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 18
OWN 28
0
32.0%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 18
OWN 28
+7
31.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
31.2%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:4168% → 79%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
31.6%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Hunter BryantSimilar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
32.0%
WASHINGTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wash 25Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+11
32.4%
Salvon Ahmed run for 11 yds to the Wash 36Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+3
31.6%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Cade Otton for 3 yds to the Wash 39Similar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+1
31.1%
Jacob Eason run for 1 yd to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+40
28.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 50 yds to the OREGONST 10 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
28.5%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Cade Otton for 9 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+3
28.4%
Richard Newton run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
28.4%
Richard Newton run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
21.2%
Salvon Ahmed run for 6 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13INT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:5722% → 23%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
22.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
22.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
23.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 3 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-7
23.7%
Jake Luton sacked by Joe Tryon and Levi Onwuzurike for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+10
21.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 10 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 4
OWN 45
+10
22.9%
Jake Luton pass intercepted Elijah Molden return for 10 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:3478% → 79%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
21.9%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Hunter BryantSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
21.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 9 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
21.0%
Jacob Eason run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
20.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 8 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+10
20.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 10 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
20.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+28
20.8%
Peyton Henry 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15FG
16 plays · 39 yds · 5:2278% → 83%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
22.3%
Salvon Ahmed run for no gain to the Wash 45Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
22.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 11 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
22.0%
Richard Newton run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 3
OPP 37
-3
21.4%
Richard Newton run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-5
21.8%
WASHINGTON Penalty, False Start (Jaxson Kirkland) to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+10
22.0%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 10 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
22.6%
Richard Newton run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
21.0%
Andre Baccellia run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
20.9%
Newton, Richard rush for no gain to the OREGONST21, PENALTY WASHINGTON holding 10 yards to the OREGONST31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 20
OPP 31
0
21.0%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Hunter BryantSimilar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 20
OPP 31
0
21.3%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Salvon AhmedSimilar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 20
OPP 31
-5
22.2%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Delay of Game (Jacob Eason) to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 25
OPP 36
+10
22.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Cade Otton for 10 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q3 9:23
4TH & 15
OPP 26
+10
23.7%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
16.7%
Peyton Henry 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1619% → 18%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
19.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
19.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
17.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+47
17.8%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the OREGONST 38 WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Wash 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17INT TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:4684% → 73%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
15.9%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Aaron FullerSimilar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
16.1%
Salvon Ahmed run for 7 yds to the Wash 35Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+36
26.6%
Jacob Eason pass intercepted for a TD Jaydon Grant return for 36 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:0174% → 74%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
26.2%
Richard Newton run for 6 yds to the Wash 42Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+7
25.3%
Richard Newton run for 7 yds to the Wash 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
24.9%
Richard Newton run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
24.8%
Salvon Ahmed run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
24.4%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Terrell BynumSimilar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
25.9%
Joel Whitford punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4430% → 28%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
29.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
29.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+1
28.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 1 yd to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
27.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20TD
1 play · 60 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
13.8%
Salvon Ahmed run for 60 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3717% → 16%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
16.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 6 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
17.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 0:58
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+1
16.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 1 yd to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
15.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:4787% → 88%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
13.0%
Richard Newton run for 8 yds to the Wash 40Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+7
12.1%
Salvon Ahmed run for 7 yds to the Wash 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
12.3%
Richard Newton run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 7
50
+4
12.0%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 4 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
12.3%
Richard Newton run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
11.6%
Richard Newton run for no gain to the OrgSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:4516% → 12%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
15.6%
Champ Flemings run for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+6
14.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 9
OWN 45
-8
14.2%
Jake Luton sacked by Edefuan Ulofoshio for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 17
OWN 37
+24
11.6%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 42 yds , Aaron Fuller returns for 24 yds to the Wash 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 24MISSED FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:2391% → 91%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
8.7%
Salvon Ahmed run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
8.0%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 15 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
7.7%
Richard Newton run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
7.6%
Richard Newton run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
7.6%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Terrell BynumSimilar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
8.9%
Peyton Henry 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:419% → 7%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
9.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+2
8.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 2 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+6
7.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 6 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 6
OWN 27
-5
7.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
7.4%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
14 plays · 41 yds · 5:2393% → 98%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
7.1%
Salvon Ahmed run for 7 yds to the Wash 41Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 3
OWN 41
-2
6.0%
Salvon Ahmed run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 39Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+12
6.0%
Salvon Ahmed run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
5.4%
Salvon Ahmed run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+12
4.8%
Salvon Ahmed run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
3.6%
Salvon Ahmed run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+4
3.6%
Salvon Ahmed run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+4
2.7%
Salvon Ahmed run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+3
2.9%
Salvon Ahmed run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
2.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 11
OPP 23
-2
2.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:34
Salvon Ahmed run for 60 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-14.1
TD · Q3 7:01
Jacob Eason pass intercepted for a TD Jaydon Grant return for 36 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
+10.4
TD · Q2 1:48
Salvon Ahmed run for 6 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)
-7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com