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ORST

Oregon State 48 at UCLA 31

UCLA
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:18 · Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 7 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Home team on offense−16.2Score differential−7.2Garbage-time factor−6.0Pregame prior+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:07: Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair PAT MISSED) — ORST win probability +13.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:13: Joshua Kelley 0 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick) — UCLA win probability +7.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:30: Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 53 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +13.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:18: Demetric Felton run for 75 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +13.3 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:17: Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 22 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +20.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:17UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:52UCLA 4th & 5 at UCLA 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:02ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 46, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:56ORST 4th & 1 at UCLA 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.5%−2.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−9.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:07UCLA 4th & 4 at ORST 41, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%−1.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:40UCLA 4th & 7 at ORST 19, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:40ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−2.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:13ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 33, up 10
    Close callPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:57UCLA 4th & 4 at ORST 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.2%−1.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:18ORST 4th & 6 at UCLA 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    69.1%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−7.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00UCLA 4th & 1 at ORST 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    13.6%−3.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−12.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:04ORST 4th & 1 at UCLA 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.1%−2.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−7.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:42UCLA 4th & 10 at ORST 14, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ORST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:17ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:11ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:59ORST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:56UCLA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:07ORST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:13UCLA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:30ORST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:18UCLA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:17ORST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:39UCLA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%−0.6
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:42ORST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4340% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
60.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 12 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
60.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 8 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
60.1%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah Hodgins, broken up by Rayshad WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+45
60.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 45 yds to the UCLA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
60.1%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 4Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
58.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 4 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.1%
Demetric Felton run for 3 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
59.2%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Chase Cota, broken up by Isaiah DunnSimilar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
59.1%
Austin Burton pass complete to Chase Cota for 6 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
59.1%
Joshua Kelley run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:4742% → 45%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
58.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 12 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
58.1%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the UCLA 17Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
58.1%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Kolby TaylorSimilar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+12
58.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 12 yds to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
55.5%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5TD
1 play · 27 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
50.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 27 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
51.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 8 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+3
51.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
51.4%
Austin Burton sacked by Avery Roberts for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 19Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+7
51.3%
Kyle Philips run for 7 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q1 8:52
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+3
51.3%
Austin Burton run for 3 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
51.3%
Wade Lees punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
47.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 15 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
47.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-2
47.2%
Jake Luton sacked by Leni Toailoa for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+4
47.5%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 46 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
47.8%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 7:4345% → 46%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+21
44.6%
Demetric Felton run for 21 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
45.2%
Demetric Felton run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 33Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+12
44.6%
Austin Burton pass complete to Demetric Felton for 12 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
45.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
45.7%
Demetric Felton run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+14
46.0%
Austin Burton run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 32 Austin Burton fumbled, recovered by UCLA Austin Burton for a 1ST down , return for 14 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
41.0%
Austin Burton pass complete to Demetric Felton for 9 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 23
-2
41.1%
Austin Burton run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+7
40.9%
Austin Burton run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
41.1%
Austin Burton pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 4 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+2
41.1%
Austin Burton pass complete to Kyle Philips for 2 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+5
40.8%
Austin Burton pass complete to Chase Cota for 5 yds to the OrgSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
45.8%
Austin Burton pass complete to Kyle Philips for 7 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4958% → 72%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.5%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+53
42.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 53 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
41.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Kolby TaylorSimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
41.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+4
41.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
42.2%
Jake Luton run for 2 yds to the UCLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
41.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds to the UCLA 5Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 4
OPP 5
0
41.4%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the UCLA 5Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
27.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 5:2733% → 33%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
32.8%
Austin Burton run for 8 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
33.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
33.6%
Austin Burton run for 9 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
34.4%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+4
34.6%
Austin Burton pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 4 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
34.6%
Austin Burton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
34.4%
Austin Burton pass complete to Kyle Philips for 6 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
34.5%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Demetric FeltonSimilar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+19
34.1%
Austin Burton pass complete to Demetric Felton for 19 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
35.3%
Demetric Felton run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
35.3%
Austin Burton pass complete to Demetric Felton for no gain to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
34.9%
Austin Burton pass incomplete, broken up by Hamilcar Rashed Jr.Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+37
32.7%
JJ Molson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
25.7%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
25.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 3 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
26.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+15
26.6%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 62 yds , Kyle Philips returns for 15 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12END OF HALF
10 plays · 22 yds · 0:4630% → 29%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
30.0%
Austin Burton pass complete to Demetric Felton for 3 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+6
29.9%
Austin Burton pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 6 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
31.0%
Austin Burton pass complete to Demetric Felton for 2 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
31.2%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Devin Asiasi, broken up by Avery RobertsSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+17
30.4%
Austin Burton pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 17 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
31.1%
Austin Burton pass complete to Demetric Felton for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 13
OPP 47
-3
29.3%
Austin Burton sacked by Shemar Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:4728% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
28.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
28.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
29.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
29.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
29.8%
Austin Burton run for 2 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+8
30.0%
Austin Burton pass complete to Kyle Philips for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
30.4%
Felton, D rush for 5 yards to the OSU45 (McCartan,John), PENALTY OSU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the OSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 45
0
31.2%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Demetric FeltonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+8
31.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
30.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+30
31.8%
Austin Burton pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 30 yds to the OrgSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
32.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, (1 Yards) to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q3 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
39.4%
Joshua Kelley 0 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
35.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
35.7%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
36.6%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.9%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the UCLA 25Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
33.8%
Joshua Kelley run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 23Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+18
32.4%
Austin Burton pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 18 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
35.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
37.0%
Austin Burton run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+5
36.9%
Austin Burton run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
36.7%
Demetric Felton run for no gain to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 8:57
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
34.7%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Demetric FeltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 0:4472% → 85%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
28.0%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
28.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 8 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+53
14.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 53 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
28.9%
Demetric Felton run for 75 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0171% → 91%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.0%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
29.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 24 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
26.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+14
26.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 14 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
25.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 5 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+1
25.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 4
OPP 27
-2
26.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 29Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+7
29.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 7 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
9.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 22 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 6:3813% → 21%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.4%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Jaylen ErwinSimilar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
13.3%
Demetric Felton run for 2 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
13.1%
Austin Burton run for 10 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
14.1%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
14.5%
Austin Burton pass complete to Kyle Philips for 5 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+2
14.8%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
14.8%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the UCLA 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+13
14.8%
Austin Burton pass complete to Demetric Felton for 13 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
15.4%
Austin Burton pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 6 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+1
17.0%
Demetric Felton run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+6
16.1%
Austin Burton pass complete to Chase Cota for 6 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
17.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+3
17.0%
Demetric Felton run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 17
0
16.2%
Demetric Felton run for no gain to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+4
16.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
17.0%
Burton, Austin pass incomplete (Rashed,H.), PENALTY OSU roughing passer (Taumoelau,Doug) 7 yards to the OSU6, 1ST DOWN UCLA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
17.0%
Austin Burton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
20.8%
Austin Burton run for 6 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 6:5784% → 99%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
16.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 17 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
14.8%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+3
15.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 3 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+9
15.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 9 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
14.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+6
14.0%
Jake Luton run for 6 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
14.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+5
8.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
8.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the UCLA 24Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+8
8.0%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 8 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
8.5%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the UCLA 16Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
6.4%
Jake Luton run for 2 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
5.8%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the UCLA 14Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
5.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 19Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+19
1.2%
Jake Luton run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 61 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.9%
Austin Burton pass complete to Demetric Felton for no gain to the UCLA 25Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
0.9%
Austin Burton pass complete to Kyle Philips for 23 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
1.0%
Austin Burton sacked by Hamilcar Rashed Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 42Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+8
1.0%
Austin Burton pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 8
50
+20
1.0%
Austin Burton pass complete to Kyle Philips for 20 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
1.2%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Kyle PhilipsSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+16
1.2%
Austin Burton run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
1.2%
Austin Burton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
1.2%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Devin AsiasiSimilar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
1.1%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Kyle Philips, broken up by Jaydon GrantSimilar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 10
OPP 14
0
1.1%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Devin AsiasiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:17
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 22 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
-20
TD · Q2 7:07
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair PAT MISSED)
-13.8
TD · Q3 4:30
Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 53 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
-13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com