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STAN

Stanford 31 at Oregon State 28

ORST
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:11 · Cameron Scarlett run for 45 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Home team on offense−21.1Score differential−10.4Garbage-time factor−5.5Pregame prior−3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 12:23: Artavis Pierce run for 43 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +19.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:31: Colby Parkinson pass complete to Davis Mills for 8 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +13.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:05: B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +19.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:55: Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +40.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:01: Jet Toner 39 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +37.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 8:46STAN 4th & 12 at ORST 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:05ORST 4th & 7 at STAN 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.2%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00ORST 4th & 11 at ORST 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:35STAN 4th & 19 at ORST 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−1.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:30ORST 4th & 8 at STAN 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−6.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:54ORST 4th & 9 at STAN 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:11STAN 4th & 1 at midfield, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.0%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00STAN 4th & 13 at STAN 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−2.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:06STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:01STAN 4th & 17 at ORST 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−20.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−31.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4STAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:37STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:24STAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:14STAN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:21ORST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:23ORST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:31STAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−1.0
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:05ORST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−1.6
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:55ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1MISSED FG
13 plays · 40 yds · 6:1460% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
40.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
40.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 13 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
40.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
40.5%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Osiris St. BrownSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
40.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
40.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+16
40.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 16 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
40.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-10
40.5%
Davis Mills sacked by Hamilcar Rashed Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 17
OPP 40
+5
42.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 5 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 8:46
4TH & 12
OPP 35
+53
42.6%
Jet Toner 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:4143% → 44%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
42.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 5 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
43.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+8
43.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 8 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
43.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 9 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+4
43.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
43.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-2
43.7%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 32Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
43.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
44.3%
Jordan Choukair 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 3:2857% → 62%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
43.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 11 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
42.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+3
42.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+12
42.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 12 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
42.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 14 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
38.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 26 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3240% → 39%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
39.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 20
OWN 16
-3
39.6%
Jake Luton sacked by Jovan Swann for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 23
OWN 13
+3
39.5%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 16
+9
38.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 9 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+27
38.7%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 41 yds , Michael Wilson returns for 27 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
37.8%
STANFORD Penalty, illegal block (Drew Dalman) to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+7
38.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 7 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+8
38.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 8 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-9
37.9%
Davis Mills sacked by Hamilcar Rashed Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 14:35
4TH & 14
OPP 43
-5
39.4%
STANFORD Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 14:35
4TH & 19
OPP 48
0
39.5%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 45 yds, downed at the OrgSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 77 yds · 5:2339% → 39%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+25
39.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 25 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
39.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 24 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
41.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 11 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
41.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 2
OPP 29
-2
42.4%
Jake Luton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 31Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+9
41.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 9 yds to the Stanf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
42.4%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 5 yds to the Stanf 17Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+2
42.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the Stanf 15Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 3
OPP 15
-5
41.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Jake Luton) to the Stanf 20Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
41.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Kolby TaylorSimilar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+38
38.8%
Jordan Choukair 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Obi EbohSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:0663% → 78%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
37.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Stanf 21Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-3
37.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 18Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+18
37.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 18 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
36.1%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Nathaniel PeatSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
36.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+39
37.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 39 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+22
34.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 22 yds to the OrgSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
34.5%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
34.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
22.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 3 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8END OF HALF
14 plays · 29 yds · 1:1525% → 23%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
24.5%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Tyjon Lindsey, broken up by Jordan FoxSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+11
24.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 11 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
25.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
24.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
50
-5
26.3%
Jake Luton sacked by Thomas Booker for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+20
25.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 20 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
27.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 4 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
27.1%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+6
26.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 6 yds to the Stanf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
27.1%
Jake Luton sacked by Thomas Booker for a loss of 15 yards to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 25
OPP 40
-5
23.4%
Jake Luton sacked by Gabe Reid for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
24.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 15 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
24.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
24.4%
Jake Luton run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
25.7%
STANFORD Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
50
0
26.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Kolby TaylorSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
50
+1
26.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the Stanf 49Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
25.8%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Kolby TaylorSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
24.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:4879% → 97%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
21.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 5 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
21.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 1 yd to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
21.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
21.3%
Davis Mills pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
21.4%
Mills,D pass incomplete to Fehoko,S (Hayes,Kaleb), PENALTY OSU pass interference (Hayes,Kaleb) 10 yards to the STAN41, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
20.1%
Nathaniel Peat run for 5 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
20.0%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Osiris St. Brown, broken up by Isaiah DunnSimilar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+4
16.7%
Davis Mills run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 1
50
+45
17.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 45 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
16.0%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
16.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 3 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:537% → 18%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
7.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
7.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 13 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
7.7%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
7.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+7
7.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 7 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
8.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+18
8.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 18 yds to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
9.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+4
9.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+8
8.7%
Jack Colletto run for 8 yds to the Stanf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
18.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 11 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:1489% → 89%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
11.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-5
11.4%
Mills,D pass complete to Wilson,M for 13 yards to the STAN45 (Dunn,Isaiah), PENALTY STAN ineligible downfield on pass (Hattis,H) 5 yards to the STAN27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 13
OWN 27
0
11.5%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Connor WedingtonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 27
0
10.9%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Colby Parkinson, broken up by Omar SpeightsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
11.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 68 yds, downed at the OrgSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13TD
10 plays · 95 yds · 2:2114% → 35%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
13.5%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Kolby Taylor, broken up by Jonathan McGillSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
13.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+5
13.2%
Luton,Jake pass complete to Pierce,Artavis for 9 yards to the OSU14, out-of-bounds (Robinson,C), PENALTY STAN offside defense (Reid,G) 5 yards to the OSU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+16
13.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 16 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
14.3%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah Hodgins, broken up by Paulson AdeboSimilar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
14.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 7 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+5
15.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 5 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
15.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 19 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
35.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 43 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 2:4775% → 97%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
25.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+36
24.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 36 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
21.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+2
21.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
17.3%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi Fehoko, broken up by Isaiah DunnSimilar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+15
20.4%
Toner,J field goal attempt from 46 GOOD, clock 09:44, PENALTY OSU personal foul 15 yards to the OSU14, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
16.4%
Mills,D pass incomplete to Wilson,M (Dunn,Isaiah), PENALTY OSU roughing passer (McCartan,John) 6 yards to the OSU8, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
3.4%
Colby Parkinson pass complete to Davis Mills for 8 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2610% → 32%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
9.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 15 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
10.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 11 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
11.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 17 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+27
13.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 27 yds to the Stanf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
13.3%
Pierce,Artavis rush for 3 yards to the STAN2, out-of-bounds (Eboh,O), PENALTY STAN offside defense (Williams,M) 3 yards to the STAN2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
13.0%
Jack Colletto run for 1 yd to the Stanf 1Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:4981% → 90%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
18.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 29Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+3
9.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+7
10.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for 7 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
9.6%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tyjon Lindsey at the OrgSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 2:3421% → 69%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
21.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+17
20.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 17 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
24.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 1
50
-7
26.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OREGONST 47 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Noah Togiai) to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
23.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 1
50
+4
26.0%
Jake Luton run for 4 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
26.6%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
25.5%
Artavis Pierce run for 9 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+36
27.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 36 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.5%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18FG
10 plays · 29 yds · 1:4457% → 93%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
50
+18
42.7%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 18 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
38.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+16
38.0%
Davis Mills run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
37.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 15
OPP 19
-2
39.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 17
OPP 21
0
44.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 17
OPP 21
+39
6.7%
Jet Toner 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:55
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
+40.8
FG · Q4 0:01
Jet Toner 39 yd FG GOOD
-37.3
TD · Q4 12:23
Artavis Pierce run for 43 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
+19.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com