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ORST

Oregon State 10 at Oregon 24

ORE
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+2.7ORE 98.8%Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 20 yds fora TD (Camden Lewis KICK)AWAY 10 - HOME 24 · Q4 1:15
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:15 · Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 20 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Pregame prior+1.2Home team on offense+30.5Garbage-time factor+15.5Score differential+12.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.1Time remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:55: Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 28 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +2.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:03: Jermar Jefferson run for 19 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +10.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:03: Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Champ Flemings — ORST win probability +5.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:04: Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 48 — ORE win probability +8.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:15: Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 20 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 11ORST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00ORE 4th & 1 at ORST 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.3%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:26ORE 4th & 14 at ORST 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:26ORST 4th & 3 at ORE 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:00ORST 4th & 16 at ORE 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:47ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:50ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:55ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.7%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:14ORE 4th & 10 at ORST 35, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:35ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:40ORE 4th & 6 at ORST 37, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%−0.4
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:54ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:47ORE 4th & 10 at ORST 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 15:00ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 12:31ORE 4th & 4 at ORST 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    91.5%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    88.7%−3.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:11ORE 4th & 6 at ORST 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−4.4
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:23ORST 4th & 7 at ORE 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:16ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:03ORE 4th & 6 at ORST 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.8%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    88.8%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−7.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:03ORST 4th & 5 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.5%−0.8
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:29ORE 4th & 4 at ORST 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:55ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 11:03ORST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:15ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1FG
19 plays · 56 yds · 6:3493% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
92.6%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+13
92.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 13 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
92.6%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
92.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon Redd, broken up by Elu AydonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+8
92.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 8 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
92.6%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
50
+2
92.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 2 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+28
92.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Josh Delgado for 28 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
92.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for no gain to the OrgSt 20 OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive holding (5 Yards) to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
0
92.6%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for no gain to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 15
+3
92.6%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+1
92.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 1 yd to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
92.6%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
92.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
92.6%
Travis Dye run for no gain to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
92.6%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
92.6%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
91.0%
Camden Lewis 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 5:269% → 11%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
91.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+19
91.1%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 19 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
91.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+22
91.0%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Champ Flemings for 22 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
90.9%
Tristan Gebbia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
90.9%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 9 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-2
90.9%
B.J. Baylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+17
91.0%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 17 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
90.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 4
OPP 10
-15
89.3%
Jefferson, Jermar rush for 10 yards to the ORE0, clock 03:56, PENALTY OSU personal foul 15 yards to the ORE25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 19
OPP 25
+3
89.5%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 3 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 16
OPP 22
0
89.7%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 16
OPP 22
+40
89.1%
Everett Hayes 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
90.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 7 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
90.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-2
90.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
90.8%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
90.5%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
90.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
90.3%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
90.0%
Blake Maimone punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
89.9%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Trevon Bradford, broken up by Jevon HollandSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
90.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-5
90.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 22
+2
90.2%
Tristan Gebbia run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 24 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 24
+25
90.4%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 39 , Jevon Holland returns for 25 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:3290% → 93%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
90.4%
Travis Dye run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
92.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 28 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
91.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
91.5%
Tristan Gebbia run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
91.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
91.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+5
91.7%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 5 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
91.8%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Tyjon Lindsey, broken up by Troy DyeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
92.7%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-5
92.7%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+12
92.7%
CJ Verdell run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
92.8%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-1
92.7%
Justin Herbert sacked by Omar Speights for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
92.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 10:14
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
92.2%
Blake Maimone punt for 33 yds, downed at the OrgSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+23
92.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 23 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.7%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Kolby TaylorSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.7%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Noah Togiai for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
91.7%
Tristan Gebbia run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
91.8%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 48 yds , Jevon Holland returns for 1 yd to the Oregn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 42 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+38
91.9%
Travis Dye run for 38 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
92.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
92.3%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+2
92.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 2 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
91.8%
Blake Maimone punt for 32 yds, downed at the OrgSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:528% → 8%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
91.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+3
91.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+2
91.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 3
OWN 12
0
92.4%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the OrgSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
93.3%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
93.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
93.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 10
OPP 43
+8
92.7%
Blake Maimone punt for 38 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for 8 yds to the OrgSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:118% → 8%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
92.4%
Tristan Gebbia run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 5
OWN 18
-2
92.2%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+10
92.1%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 10 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
91.7%
Gebbia,Tristan pass complete to Stewart, I'Shawn for 9 yards to the OSU35, PENALTY OSU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the OSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+3
91.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.3%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
91.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
91.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
91.8%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Noah Togiai for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
92.3%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
92.4%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Noah Togiai, broken up by Kayvon ThibodeauxSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
92.5%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16MISSED FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 6:2093% → 94%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
92.7%
Travis Dye run for 12 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
92.8%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
93.1%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
93.1%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 8
50
+9
93.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 9 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
93.1%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+9
93.1%
CJ Verdell run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
93.1%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
93.1%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+2
92.8%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q3 12:31
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+11
92.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Ryan Bay for 11 yds to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
93.1%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
93.1%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
92.8%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
93.5%
Camden Lewis 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:488% → 7%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
92.3%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 18 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
91.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 14 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
91.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-1
91.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+7
91.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 7 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 2
OPP 40
-5
93.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
93.4%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
94.6%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+7
94.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 7 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
94.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Bryan Addison for 15 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
94.9%
Justin Herbert sacked by John McCartan for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+10
94.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 10 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
94.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Bryan Addison, broken up by Jaydon GrantSimilar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+6
94.4%
Blake Maimone punt for 45 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for 6 yds to the OrgSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 4:506% → 17%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
94.3%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 8 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+3
94.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
94.9%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+14
95.0%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 14 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
94.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 8 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+3
94.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
94.5%
Tristan Gebbia run for 15 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
94.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+10
93.8%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 10 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
93.8%
Tristan Gebbia run for 3 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+19
83.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 19 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20FUMBLE
10 plays · 70 yds · 0:0090% → 92%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
90.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 3 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
90.5%
Justin Herbert run for 6 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+8
90.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Ryan Bay for 8 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+24
91.6%
Justin Herbert run for 24 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
92.3%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
92.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+4
91.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 4 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 11:03
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+17
90.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Bryan Addison for 17 yds Bryan Addison fumbled, forced by Jaydon Grant, recovered by Oregn for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
92.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 7 yds Jaylon Redd fumbled, recovered by OrgStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.4%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
87.5%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 6 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+8
87.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 8 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
86.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+1
85.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+6
86.4%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
85.7%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
86.2%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Trevon Bradford, broken up by Mykael WrightSimilar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+5
86.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:03
4TH & 5
50
+4
86.8%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 4 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:3595% → 95%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
94.8%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+5
94.8%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-1
94.5%
Darrian Felix run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
94.9%
Blake Maimone punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
91.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Trevon Bradford, broken up by Isaac Slade-MatautiaSimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+10
91.7%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 10 yds Jermar Jefferson fumbled, forced by Thomas Graham Jr., recovered by Oregn Brady BreezeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 0:5296% → 99%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
96.1%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+6
96.1%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+20
98.8%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 20 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 52 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
98.6%
OREGON Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
98.5%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Noah Togiai for 17 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.4%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
98.5%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Noah Togiai for 9 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
98.3%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-7
98.1%
Tristan Gebbia sacked by Kayvon Thibodeaux for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 42Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 17
OPP 42
+14
98.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 14 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:03
Jermar Jefferson run for 19 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
-10.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:04
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 48
+8
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:03
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Champ Flemings
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com