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ORE

Oregon 56 at USC 24

USC
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Darrian Felix run for 11 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:36: Jaylon Redd run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +10.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:16: Kedon Slovis pass intercepted for a TD Brady Breeze return for 32 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +12.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:20: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 13 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +10.6 pts (now 41%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:08: Alex Stadthaus kickoff for 65 yds , Mykael Wright return for 100 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +15.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:39: Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 15 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +12.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:48ORE 4th & 17 at ORE 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:45USC 4th & 6 at USC 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:00USC 4th & 6 at ORE 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:19ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  5. Q3 8:40USC 4th & 9 at ORE 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:09USC 4th & 14 at ORE 42, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:55USC 4th & 4 at ORE 41, down 32
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ORE made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 9:15USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:11ORE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:36ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:16ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:20USC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:08ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:39ORE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:14ORE Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:55ORE Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:50ORE Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:11USC Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
18 plays · 77 yds · 5:1538% → 43%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
38.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 7 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+4
38.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 4 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
38.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 6 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
38.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 3 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+4
38.9%
Kenan Christon run for 4 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
39.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
39.2%
Quincy Jountti run for 2 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+13
39.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 13 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
39.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+1
40.1%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+1
40.2%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
40.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
40.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+15
40.2%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
40.8%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
40.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
42.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1758% → 56%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
42.2%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 11
OWN 29
-6
43.0%
Justin Herbert sacked by Kana'i Mauga for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 17
OWN 23
0
43.4%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 17
OWN 23
+5
43.7%
Blake Maimone punt for 51 yds , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for 5 yds to the USC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4544% → 45%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
43.6%
Kenan Christon run for 6 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+2
44.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 2 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-5
44.4%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 34Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+11
44.1%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (11 Yards) to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
45.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 7 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
45.9%
Amon-Ra St. Brown run for 2 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-5
45.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
45.3%
Ben Griffiths punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:4655% → 54%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
45.5%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+5
46.0%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+14
46.5%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted Isaiah Pola-Mao return for 14 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4947% → 48%
Q1 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
47.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
47.6%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
47.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
47.8%
Chase McGrath 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:2053% → 50%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
47.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Mycah Pittman for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
48.1%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+17
48.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 17 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
47.6%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-10
48.3%
Justin Herbert sacked by Jay Tufele for a loss of 10 yards to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 19
OWN 30
+13
49.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Spencer Webb for 13 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 0:19
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
49.8%
Blake Maimone punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7INT
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:4950% → 52%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
49.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
49.6%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+19
49.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 19 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
51.0%
OREGON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the USC 42Similar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 5
OWN 42
0
51.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+7
51.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 7 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
52.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
52.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 6 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+40
52.3%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted Verone McKinley III return for 25 yds to the Oregn 20 OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 1:5649% → 55%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
51.5%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+15
51.3%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
51.2%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
50.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 14 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
50.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 3 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-1
50.9%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 10Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
44.7%
Justin Herbert run for 10 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9FUMBLE
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:2247% → 52%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
46.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 17 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
48.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kenan Christon for 5 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+9
49.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 9 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
49.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
50.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+27
50.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 4 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Double Personal Foul on Austin Faoliu) to the Oregn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
52.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 9Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
52.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 6 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
51.7%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Drayton Carlberg for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 8 Kedon Slovis fumbled, recovered by Oregn , return for 3 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 2:5450% → 65%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
49.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 7 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+9
49.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Hunter Kampmoyer for 9 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
49.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 19 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
47.5%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
47.0%
Travis Dye run for 9 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+5
45.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 5 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
45.8%
USC Penalty, Roughing Passer (14 Yards) to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
45.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for no gain to the USC 10 lat. to CJ Verdell for 4 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+9
46.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 9 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
46.0%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 2Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
35.5%
Jaylon Redd run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0940% → 28%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
40.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+32
28.2%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted for a TD Brady Breeze return for 32 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 1:2028% → 41%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
28.3%
Kedon Slovis sacked by DJ Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 22Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+8
27.4%
Kenan Christon run for 8 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+8
27.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 8 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+34
30.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 19 yds to the OREGON 43 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
31.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
31.5%
Kedon Slovis run for 2 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+13
29.7%
OREGON Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (13 Yards) to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
31.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
30.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
41.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 13 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0229% → 30%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
50
+5
28.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
29.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:5872% → 88%
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
28.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darrian Felix for 3 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
27.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 2 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+42
26.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darrian Felix for 27 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
26.0%
Travis Dye run for no gain to the USC 33Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+16
25.5%
Travis Dye run for 16 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
24.9%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+15
12.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 15 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16INT
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:4315% → 15%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
15.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 10 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
15.6%
Kenan Christon run for 8 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-6
16.5%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 41Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+19
15.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 19 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
16.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
16.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 1 yd to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
15.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 9
OPP 39
+45
15.2%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted Deommodore Lenoir return for 45 yds to the USC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:5989% → 98%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
11.2%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
10.5%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+9
10.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 9 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
10.0%
Travis Dye run for 9 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+2
10.0%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
1.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 11 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:002% → 1%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
1.8%
Dominic Davis run for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
1.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 11 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
1.6%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
1.8%
Dominic Davis run for 4 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-2
1.8%
Quincy Jountti run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 36Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-6
1.6%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Kayvon Thibodeaux for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 14
OPP 42
0
1.4%
Ben Griffiths punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 3:5599% → 99%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
1.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Spencer Webb for 6 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+6
1.3%
Darrian Felix run for 6 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
1.2%
Darrian Felix run for 3 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+14
1.1%
Justin Herbert run for 14 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
1.1%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
1.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 4 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+10
0.9%
Travis Dye run for 10 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
0.9%
Travis Dye run for 8 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+37
0.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 37 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:521% → 0%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
0.5%
Kenan Christon run for 16 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.5%
Kedon Slovis run for no gain to the USC 41 Kedon Slovis fumbled, recovered by USC Kedon Slovis Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+12
0.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 12 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
0.4%
Kenan Christon run for 6 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
0.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
0.4%
Ben Griffiths punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 4:52100% → 100%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
0.5%
Darrian Felix run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 5Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 14
OWN 5
+6
0.5%
Darrian Felix run for 6 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+3
0.4%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (3 Yards) to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
0.4%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 15Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+29
0.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Josh Delgado for 14 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
0.3%
Travis Dye run for 11 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
0.2%
Darrian Felix run for 4 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+6
0.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Daewood Davis for 6 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
0.2%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
0.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 35 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:190% → 0%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.2%
Kenan Christon run for 7 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
0.1%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+14
0.1%
Kenan Christon run for 14 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
0.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 7 yds to the OREGON 45 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
0.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 5 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+5
0.1%
Quincy Jountti run for 5 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
0.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kyle Ford for 20 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:44100% → 100%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.1%
Darrian Felix run for 8 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
0.1%
Darrian Felix run for 1 yd to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
0.1%
Darrian Felix run for 5 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
0.1%
Darrian Felix run for 3 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+11
0.1%
Darrian Felix run for 11 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:08
Alex Stadthaus kickoff for 65 yds , Mykael Wright return for 100 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
-15.2
TD · Q3 11:39
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 15 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q2 2:16
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted for a TD Brady Breeze return for 32 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
-12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com