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ORE

Oregon 21 at Stanford 6

STAN
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:13 · Ryan Sanborn punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Pregame prior−20.5Home team on offense−10.4Score differential−4.5Garbage-time factor−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:13: Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 36 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +2.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:34: Justin Herbert pass complete to Bryan Addison for 16 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST down — ORE win probability +1.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:58: Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 16 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +4.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:40: Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 24 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +7.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 7:32: Jet Toner 38 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +1.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 8:43STAN 4th & 7 at ORE 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:01ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:48STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:36STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:25ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:10STAN 4th & 12 at STAN 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:13STAN 4th & 13 at ORE 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    20.2%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:02ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 45, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:07STAN 4th & 22 at STAN 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−3.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:24ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 49, up 11
    Close callPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:30STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:24ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:32STAN 4th & 16 at ORE 20, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:35ORE 4th & 2 at STAN 9, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%−0.6
    89% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−3.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:21STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 41, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:20ORE 4th & 19 at midfield, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00STAN 4th & 16 at STAN 14, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−<0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:13ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:58ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:40ORE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 6:1717% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
16.6%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (Henry Hattis) to the Stanf 20Similar
Q1 14:59
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
16.6%
Connor Wedington run for 10 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
17.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
17.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for 23 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
17.6%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+11
18.2%
Austin Jones run for 11 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
18.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 11
OPP 28
-2
18.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Jay Symonds for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+13
19.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 13 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
19.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
19.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
20.0%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
20.2%
Jet Toner 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3780% → 78%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
20.2%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+9
20.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 9 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-9
20.3%
Justin Herbert sacked by Jordan Fox for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 19
OWN 32
+2
21.2%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 17
OWN 34
+11
21.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 11 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
21.9%
Blake Maimone punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Michael Wilson at the Stanf 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1222% → 22%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
21.6%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
21.7%
Dorian Maddox run for 4 yds to the Stanf 16Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
21.8%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Tucker FiskSimilar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
21.8%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 39 yds , Jevon Holland returns for no gain to the Oregn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:3578% → 80%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
22.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 19 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
20.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 36 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3721% → 21%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
20.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
21.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the Stanf 37Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
21.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
20.8%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1179% → 77%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
21.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 6 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+7
21.0%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
20.8%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
21.1%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-6
21.0%
Justin Herbert sacked by Casey Toohill for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+6
22.6%
Blake Maimone punt for 57 yds , Michael Wilson returns for 6 yds to the Stanf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 4:5022% → 23%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
22.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Stanf 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
22.2%
Connor Wedington run for 3 yds to the Stanf 17Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+4
21.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Stanf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
22.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 9 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+5
24.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
23.6%
Costello, K.J. pass complete to Jones, Austin for loss of 3 yards to the STANFORD32, PENALTY STANFORD illegal block (St. Brown, Osiris) 15 yards to the STANFORD20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 25
OWN 20
+4
23.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 21
OWN 24
+9
23.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 9 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
23.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
23.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:1276% → 83%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
23.9%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+8
23.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Josh Delgado for 8 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
23.5%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+2
24.3%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+10
24.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Bryan Addison for 10 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
22.6%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
23.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Josh DelgadoSimilar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+24
23.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 24 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
22.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Bryan Addison for 16 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
17.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 16 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 4:2918% → 17%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
18.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Stanf 29Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+8
17.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 8 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+8
18.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for 8 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
18.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 4 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
19.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Jones for 4 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+8
19.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Tucker Fisk for 8 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
19.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cameron ScarlettSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
19.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cameron ScarlettSimilar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-3
18.7%
K.J. Costello sacked by Gus Cumberlander for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
17.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:1383% → 83%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
17.5%
CJ Verdell run for 9 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 1
OWN 15
0
17.3%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+6
17.4%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:5882% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob BreelandSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
18.3%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 26Similar
Q3 14:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+16
18.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 16 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
17.2%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-8
17.2%
Justin Herbert sacked by Casey Toohill for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 15
OWN 37
+8
18.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Spencer Webb for 8 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
17.8%
Blake Maimone punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Michael Wilson at the Stanf 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 4:5518% → 16%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
17.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Stanf 13Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+2
17.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 15Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+11
16.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 11 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
17.3%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (Walter Rouse) to the Stanf 21Similar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 15
OWN 21
-5
16.9%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 16Similar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 20
OWN 16
0
16.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for no gain to the Stanf 16Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 20
OWN 16
-8
16.8%
K.J. Costello sacked by Drayton Carlberg for a loss of 8 yards to the Stanf 8Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 28
OWN 8
+6
15.9%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the Stanf 14Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 22
OWN 14
0
15.7%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 57 yds, downed at the Oregn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4383% → 84%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
16.6%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+4
16.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Spencer Webb for 4 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+6
16.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 6 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
15.4%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
15.3%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
15.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Spencer WebbSimilar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
16.3%
Blake Maimone punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Michael Wilson at the Stanf 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:5416% → 14%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
15.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Stanf 9Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+15
15.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 15 yds to the Stanf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
16.3%
Dorian Maddox run for 3 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-10
16.5%
Costello, K.J. pass complete to Parkinson, Colby for 15 yards to the STANFORD42, PENALTY STANFORD holding (Dalman, Drew) 10 yards to the STANFORD17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 17
OWN 17
+3
15.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 3 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+3
14.7%
K.J. Costello run for 3 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
13.8%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3686% → 86%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
14.0%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-2
13.8%
Justin Herbert sacked by Thomas Schaffer for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 36 Justin Herbert fumbled, forced by Thomas Schaffer, recovered by Oregn Penei Sewell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+3
15.1%
Justin Herbert run for 3 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+3
14.2%
Blake Maimone punt for 54 yds , Michael Wilson returns for 3 yds to the Stanf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:4314% → 14%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
14.4%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
14.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the Stanf 10 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+18
13.6%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted Jevon Holland return for 3 yds to the Stanf 13 OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (La'Mar Winston Jr.) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 2:0188% → 97%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
50
-2
12.4%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+13
12.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Bryan Addison for 13 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
11.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Bryan Addison for 3 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+12
10.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 12 yds to the Stanf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
3.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 24 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:004% → 6%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
4.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 25 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
4.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+14
5.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 14 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
4.9%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Brycen TremayneSimilar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-3
4.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 17Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 13
OPP 17
-3
4.3%
K.J. Costello sacked by La'Mar Winston Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 20Similar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 16
OPP 20
+38
6.1%
Jet Toner 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19MISSED FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 1:5196% → 97%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
50
+4
4.4%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+11
4.1%
CJ Verdell run for 11 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
3.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 18 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
3.4%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Stanf 15Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+6
3.3%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Stanf 9Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 2
OPP 9
0
3.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob BreelandSimilar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+27
3.5%
Camden Lewis 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:142% → 1%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
1.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 16 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
1.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 5 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
1.3%
K.J. Costello run for no gain to the Stanf 41Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
1.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
1.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Connor WedingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 3:0197% → 99%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-15
2.8%
Verdell, CJ rush for no gain to the STANFORD41, PENALTY OREGON personal foul (Johnson III, Johnny) 15 yards to the OREGON44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 25
OWN 44
+1
2.4%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 24
OWN 45
+3
2.2%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 21
OWN 48
+2
2.2%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 19
50
0
1.5%
Blake Maimone punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:201% → 1%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
0.9%
K.J. Costello sacked by Kayvon Thibodeaux for a loss of 6 yards to the Stanf 14Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+5
0.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 5 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-5
0.8%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 14Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
0.9%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 16
OWN 14
-6
0.9%
K.J. Costello sacked by Andrew Faoliu for a loss of 6 yards to the Stanf 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:40
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 24 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
-7.2
TD · Q2 5:58
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 16 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
-4.8
TD · Q1 4:13
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 36 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
-2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com