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MONT

Montana 3 at Oregon 35

ORE
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadMONT aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreMONT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:32 · CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Mont 18 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior+45.8Home team on offense+2.5Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.8Blowout margin−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:22: Dalton Sneed pass complete to Marcus Knight for 4 yds to the Mont 24 — MONT win probability +0.6 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MONT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:10: Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 18 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:03: Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:18: Brandon Purdy 25 yd FG GOOD — MONT win probability +1.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: MONT has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:18: Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Oregn 21 — ORE win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MONT made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 11:58MONT 4th & 10 at MONT 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:08ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:18MONT 4th & 11 at MONT 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:32ORE 4th & 1 at MONT 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00MONT 4th & 7 at ORE 37, down 14
    Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:29ORE 4th & 9 at MONT 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:22MONT 4th & 6 at MONT 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:30ORE 4th & 1 at MONT 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:54MONT 4th & 9 at ORE 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00MONT 4th & 1 at midfield, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:03MONT 4th & 9 at MONT 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:26ORE 4th & 4 at MONT 25, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:18MONT 4th & 6 at ORE 7, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:27MONT 4th & 3 at MONT 35, down 32
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:05ORE 4th & 3 at MONT 41, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:59MONT 4th & 10 at ORE 43, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:55ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 20, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:11MONT 4th & 18 at ORE 38, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:58ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:28ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:10ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:03ORE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:27ORE Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0299% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 7 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
99.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 12 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.0%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+18
99.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 18 yds to the Mont 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
99.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 10 yds to the Mont 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
99.0%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Breeland, Jacob, PENALTY UM pass interference 15 yards to the UM10, 1ST DOWN ORE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.0%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 3 yds to the Mont 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.0%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 2 yds to the Mont 5Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 5 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
98.8%
Jerry Louie-McGee run for 3 yds to the Mont 13Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+2
98.8%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Colin Bingham for 2 yds to the Mont 15Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+26
98.8%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Samuel Akem for 26 yds to the Mont 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.8%
Marcus Knight run for 5 yds to the Mont 46Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
98.8%
Nick Ostmo run for 2 yds to the Mont 48Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-7
98.8%
Dalton Sneed sacked by Mase Funa for a loss of 7 yards to the Mont 41Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+8
98.8%
Adam Wilson punt for 53 yds , Jevon Holland returns for 8 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
98.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 1 yd to the Oregn 15Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+3
98.5%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+4
98.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 4 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
98.5%
Blake Maimone punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jerry Louie-McGee at the Mont 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
98.3%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Samori ToureSimilar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
98.4%
Marcus Knight run for no gain to the Mont 33Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-1
98.4%
Dalton Sneed sacked by Troy Dye for a loss of 1 yard to the Mont 32Similar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
98.4%
Adam Wilson punt for 53 yds, downed at the Oregn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 4:0498% → 98%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
98.2%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 16Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+18
98.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Josh Delgado for 18 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+36
98.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 21 yds to the OREGON 45 for a 1ST down MONTANA Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) to the Mont 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
98.3%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Mont 24Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+2
98.3%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Mont 22Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+1
98.3%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Mont 21Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+3
98.2%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Mont 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
98.3%
Jaylon Redd run for 1 yd to the Mont 17Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
98.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 17 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONTDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 0:282% → 2%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
98.2%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Marcus Knight for 6 yds to the Mont 35Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+2
98.1%
Marcus Knight run for 2 yds to the Mont 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+10
98.1%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Colin Bingham for 10 yds to the Mont 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
98.1%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 48
0
98.0%
Dalton Sneed run for no gain to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+8
98.1%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Samuel Akem for 8 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.1%
Dalton Sneed run for no gain to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
98.1%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Samori Toure for 3 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
98.1%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Samuel Akem, broken up by Verone McKinley IIISimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
98.1%
Adam Wilson punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
14 plays · 52 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
98.0%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 9Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+11
98.0%
Justin Herbert run for 11 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
98.0%
Travis Dye run for 8 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
98.1%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
98.0%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
98.0%
Darrian Felix run for 1 yd to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+10
98.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Ryan Bay for 10 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
98.1%
Darrian Felix run for 6 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+8
98.1%
Darrian Felix run for 8 yds to the Mont 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
98.1%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Johnson III, J., PENALTY ORE pass interference 15 yards to the ORE41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 25
OWN 41
+4
98.1%
Darrian Felix run for 4 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 21
OWN 45
+12
98.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 12 yds to the Mont 43Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
98.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
98.0%
Blake Maimone punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
97.4%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Marcus Knight for 4 yds to the Mont 24Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
97.4%
Marcus Knight run for 4 yds to the Mont 28Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
97.4%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Matthew Rensvold for 1 yd to the Mont 29Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-5
97.5%
MONTANA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Mont 24Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
97.5%
Adam Wilson punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
97.4%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
97.5%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
97.4%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
97.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Daewood Davis for 9 yds to the Mont 45Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
97.4%
Darrian Felix run for no gain to the Mont 45Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
97.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Ryan BaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONTDrive 10MISSED FG
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:213% → 3%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
97.0%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Jerry Louie-McGee for 22 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
96.7%
Marcus Knight run for 1 yd to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
96.7%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Samuel AkemSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
96.9%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Samori Toure, broken up by Isaac Slade-MatautiaSimilar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+50
96.9%
Brandon Purdy 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 0:4497% → 99%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
97.2%
Justin Herbert run for 7 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+10
97.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
50
0
97.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
50
+17
97.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Josh Delgado for 17 yds to the Mont 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
97.4%
MONTANA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Mont 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 18 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.7%
Marcus Knight run for 4 yds to the Mont 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONTDrive 13INT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
98.7%
Marcus Knight run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mont 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+7
98.7%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Samuel Akem for 7 yds to the Mont 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+14
98.7%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Samuel Akem for 14 yds to the Mont 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.6%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Jerry Louie-McGee, broken up by Verone McKinley IIISimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
98.7%
Dalton Sneed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
50
+1
98.6%
Marcus Knight run for 1 yd to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.6%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Jerry Louie-McGeeSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
98.6%
Dalton Sneed pass intercepted Mykael Wright return for no gain to the Oregn 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+9
98.7%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Samuel Akem for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:5299% → 100%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
99.0%
Travis Dye run for 14 yds to the Mont 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
99.0%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the Mont 35Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+13
99.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 13 yds to the Mont 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
99.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Bryan Addison for 4 yds to the Mont 18Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+4
99.0%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Mont 14Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+8
99.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 8 yds to the Mont 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.0%
Darrian Felix run for 5 yds to the Mont 1Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Dalton Sneed run for 1 yd to the Mont 26Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Samuel AkemSimilar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Marcus Knight for no gain to the Mont 26Similar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Adam Wilson punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+23
99.8%
Travis Dye run for 23 yds to the Mont 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
99.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 6 yds to the Mont 25Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
99.8%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson III, broken up by Josh SandrySimilar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
99.8%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Travis DyeSimilar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 4
OPP 25
0
99.8%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Hunter KampmoyerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONTDrive 17FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 5:480% → 1%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Jerry Louie-McGee for 4 yds to the Mont 29Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.8%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Marcus Knight for 1 yd to the Mont 30Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+30
99.8%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Jerry Louie-McGee for 30 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Nick Ostmo run for no gain to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+16
99.8%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Samori Toure for 16 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.8%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Samuel AkemSimilar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+13
99.8%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Jerry Louie-McGee for 13 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-4
99.8%
Dalton Sneed sacked by Drayton Carlberg for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 15Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 14
OPP 15
0
99.8%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Jerry Louie-McGee for no gain to the Oregn 15Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+11
99.8%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Jerry Louie-McGee for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 7 lat. to Marcus Knight for 11 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q3 0:18
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
98.7%
Brandon Purdy 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 2:51100% → 100%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
99.5%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+9
99.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 9 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Daewood Davis for 2 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+15
99.5%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Johnson III, J., PENALTY UM pass interference 15 yards to the ORE47, 1ST DOWN ORE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
99.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 9 yds to the Mont 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+15
99.6%
Travis Dye run for 15 yds to the Mont 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
99.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darrian Felix for 19 yds to the Mont 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Josh Delgado for no gain to the Mont 10Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 10 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Marcus Knight run for 2 yds to the Mont 30Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Marcus Knight run for 2 yds to the Mont 32Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+3
99.9%
Dalton Sneed run for 3 yds to the Mont 35Similar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Adam Wilson punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Daewood Davis for 19 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
99.9%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+18
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Spencer Webb for 18 yds to the Mont 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
99.9%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 12
50
+9
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Ryan Bay for 9 yds to the Mont 41Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Travis DyeSimilar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Josh DelgadoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Camron Humphrey pass incomplete to Marcus Knight, broken up by Kayvon ThibodeauxSimilar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Camron Humphrey pass incomplete to Samuel AkemSimilar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-5
99.9%
MONTANA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Mont 36Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+21
99.9%
Camron Humphrey pass complete to Samuel Akem for 21 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Camron Humphrey pass incomplete to Samori Toure, broken up by Mykael WrightSimilar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Camron Humphrey pass incomplete to Jerry Louie-McGeeSimilar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Camron Humphrey pass incomplete to Mitch Roberts, broken up by DJ JamesSimilar
Q4 7:59
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Adam Wilson punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Josh Delgado at the Oregn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Darrian FelixSimilar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
99.9%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Spencer Webb, broken up by Michael McGinnisSimilar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Blake Maimone punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jerry Louie-McGee at the Mont 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONTDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
99.9%
Camron Humphrey pass complete to Samori Toure for 7 yds to the Mont 48Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+6
99.9%
Camron Humphrey pass complete to Gabe Sulser for 6 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Camron Humphrey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Camron Humphrey pass incomplete to Samori ToureSimilar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+16
99.9%
Camron Humphrey pass complete to Mitch Roberts for 16 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Camron Humphrey pass incomplete to Samuel AkemSimilar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Camron Humphrey pass incomplete to Samuel Akem, broken up by Mykael WrightSimilar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-8
99.9%
Camron Humphrey sacked by Sione Kava and MJ Cunningham for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 18
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Adam Wilson punt for 27 yds, downed at the Oregn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 82 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
99.9%
Sean Dollars run for 5 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+1
99.9%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the Oregn 17Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+63
99.9%
Sean Dollars run for 63 yds to the Mont 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
99.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Sean Dollars for a loss of 3 yards to the Mont 23Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+6
99.9%
Darrian Felix run for 6 yds to the Mont 17Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+10
99.9%
Darrian Felix run for 10 yds to the Mont 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:10
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 18 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+1.5
FG · Q3 0:18
Brandon Purdy 25 yd FG GOOD
-1.1
TD · Q3 9:03
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com