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NEV

Nevada 6 at Oregon 77

ORE
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLETDTDEnd of GameFG-1.5ORE 90.7%Brandon Talton 45 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 7 · Q2 10:38
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:38 · Brandon Talton 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Pregame prior+36.9Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−0.2Blowout margin+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Garbage-time factor+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:38: Brandon Talton 45 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +1.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 8:28: CJ Verdell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +1.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:13: Justin Herbert pass complete to Ryan Bay for 16 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +1.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:26: Justin Herbert pass complete to Brady Aiello for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +2.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:12: Justin Herbert pass complete to Bryan Addison for 24 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 7NEV made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00ORE 4th & 6 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:05NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:04ORE 4th & 6 at NEV 27, tied
    Close callWent for it · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:28NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:13NEV 4th & 7 at ORE 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:13ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:56NEV 4th & 1 at ORE 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%−0.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00NEV 4th & 11 at ORE 42, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    9.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:38NEV 4th & 8 at ORE 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:13NEV 4th & 17 at NEV 18, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:35NEV 4th & 22 at NEV 46, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 32, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:16NEV 4th & 21 at NEV 39, down 50
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:33ORE 4th & 5 at NEV 42, up 50
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00NEV 4th & 9 at ORE 47, down 57
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:13ORE 4th & 1 at NEV 44, up 57
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:13ORE 4th & 1 at NEV 31, up 57
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:58ORE 4th & 3 at NEV 21, up 57
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:58NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 40, down 64
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:02NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 33, down 71
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 3:56ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:28ORE Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:13ORE Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:26ORE Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:12ORE Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:12ORE Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:14ORE Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:16ORE Touchdown, up 49 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:58ORE Touchdown, up 63 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:02ORE Touchdown, up 70 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
95.9%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
95.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 15 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
95.9%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
50
0
95.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob BreelandSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
50
0
95.9%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
50
0
95.9%
Blake Maimone punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
95.5%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 7
0
95.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 8
OWN 7
0
95.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa Taua, broken up by Deommodore LenoirSimilar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 8
OWN 7
0
95.5%
Quinton Conaway punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
95.4%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 15
50
+19
95.3%
CJ Verdell run for 19 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
95.4%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-5
95.4%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 33Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+6
95.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Daewood Davis for 6 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
95.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 6
OPP 27
0
95.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
94.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah Cooks, broken up by Deommodore LenoirSimilar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
95.0%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
95.0%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
95.0%
Quinton Conaway punt for 56 yds , Haki Woods Jr. returns for no gain to the Oregn 12 Haki Woods Jr. fumbled, recovered by Nevad Ben PutmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5FG
8 plays · 5 yds · 3:105% → 6%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
94.6%
Romeo Doubs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 13Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+5
94.6%
Carson Strong run for 5 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+4
94.6%
OREGON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (4 Yards) to the Oregn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
94.6%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 9Similar
Q1 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
94.6%
Carson Strong run for 4 yds to the Oregn 5Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
94.6%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 7Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.6%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah Cooks, broken up by Thomas Graham Jr.Similar
Q1 6:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
93.7%
Brandon Talton 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:1794% → 94%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
93.7%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+6
93.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 6 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
93.8%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+2
93.6%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
93.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 66 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7FG
18 plays · 47 yds · 8:186% → 9%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to John Humphrey for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
93.6%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
93.6%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
93.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
93.4%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+5
93.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 5 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+2
93.5%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+1
93.6%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
92.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to John Humphrey for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 47
+3
92.4%
Kelton Moore run for 3 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 44
+2
92.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 2 yds Romeo Doubs fumbled, forced by Deommodore Lenoir, recovered by NevadSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 42
+12
92.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Dominic Christian for 12 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-6
92.0%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Oregn 26 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 16
OPP 36
+2
92.3%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+6
92.2%
Carson Strong run for 6 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
92.2%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Kaleb Fossum, broken up by Jevon HollandSimilar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+45
90.7%
Brandon Talton 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1091% → 93%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.0%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
91.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 1 yd to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+31
91.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 31 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
91.8%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+34
91.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Bryan Addison for 34 yds to the Nevad 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.4%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.9%
Kelton Moore run for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
92.7%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
92.9%
Carson Strong pass intercepted Sampson Niu return for no gain to the Nevad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD
2 plays · 35 yds · 0:2893% → 95%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
93.4%
CJ Verdell run for 19 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
95.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Ryan Bay for 16 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · -18 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.6%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-10
94.5%
STRONG, Carson pass incomplete to COOKS, Elijah, QB hurry by Cumberlander, PENALTY NEV holding 10 yards to the NEV19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+5
94.7%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-6
94.7%
Carson Strong sacked by Mase Funa for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 18Similar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 17
OWN 18
-11
94.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the Nevad 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2495% → 98%
Q2 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
95.3%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the Nevad 6Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
95.3%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Johnson III, J., PENALTY NEV pass interference 4 yards to the NEV2, 1ST DOWN ORE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.3%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the Nevad 1Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brady Aiello for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 1:513% → 3%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.4%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
97.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 15 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
97.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Kelton Moore for 23 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
97.2%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-1
97.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 43Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 11
OPP 43
-6
97.3%
Carson Strong sacked by DJ Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 49Similar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 17
OPP 49
-5
97.4%
NEVADA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 22
OWN 46
0
97.5%
Quinton Conaway punt for 31 yds, downed at the Oregn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 1:2398% → 99%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
98.1%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+17
98.2%
Travis Dye run for 17 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.3%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+19
98.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Josh Delgado for 19 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
98.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Daewood Davis for 11 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
99.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Bryan Addison for 24 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
99.6%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.3%
NEVADA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
99.4%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 8 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Ben Putman for 4 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.2%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Dominic ChristianSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 0
0
98.6%
CONAWAY, Q. punt 41 yards to the ORE27, Holland, Jevon return to the ORE37 (GODLEY, Jayce;THOMAS, Karson), PENALTY NEV illegal formation off-setting, PENALTY ORE holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.3%
Quinton Conaway punt for 43 yds, downed at the Oregn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:16100% → 100%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.5%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 20Similar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
99.5%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 21Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+6
99.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 6 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
99.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 11 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
99.5%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+10
99.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 10 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
99.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 9 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
99.5%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
99.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 23 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Daewood Davis for 16 yds for a TD, (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
99.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Reagan Roberson for 4 yds Reagan Roberson fumbled, forced by Sampson Niu, recovered by Oregn Drayton CarlbergSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
99.7%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 5 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+6
99.7%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 6 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.7%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for no gain to the Nevad 11Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.8%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 11 yds for a TD, (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+38
99.8%
Carson Strong pass intercepted Steve Stephens return for 38 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q3 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
99.8%
Darrian Felix run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 7Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.8%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Josh DelgadoSimilar
Q3 7:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Ben Putman for 14 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
99.8%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
50
+4
99.8%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-5
99.8%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-3
99.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 46Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 14
OWN 46
-7
99.9%
Carson Strong sacked by Andrew Faoliu for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 21
OWN 39
+8
99.9%
Quinton Conaway punt for 37 yds , Jevon Holland returns for 8 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
99.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Darrian Felix for 21 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
99.8%
Shough, Tyler pass incomplete to Dollars, Sean (SEKONA, Hausia), PENALTY ORE holding 10 yards to the ORE43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 20
OWN 43
-2
99.8%
Tyler Shough sacked by Dom Peterson for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 22
OWN 41
+13
99.8%
Tyler Shough run for 13 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+4
99.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Spencer Webb for 4 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
99.8%
Adam Stack punt for 35 yds, downed at the Nevad 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24FUMBLE TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
99.9%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds Kelton Moore fumbled, forced by DJ Johnson, recovered by Oregn Brady Breeze , return for 11 yds, (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
99.9%
Kelton Moore run for 11 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
Hamish McClure pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 5 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
99.9%
Roger Neal run for 2 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+5
99.9%
Roger Neal run for 5 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 5 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-8
99.9%
Hamish McClure sacked by Mase Funa for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 47Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Quinton Conaway punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 6:15100% → 100%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Josh Delgado for 15 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Darrian Felix run for 6 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
Darrian Felix run for 6 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Darrian Felix run for 2 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+6
99.9%
Darrian Felix run for 6 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
99.9%
Darrian Felix run for 1 yd to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 13:13
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
Sean Dollars run for 4 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
99.9%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
99.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Sean Dollars for 4 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+2
99.9%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 13:13
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+3
99.9%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
99.9%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+6
99.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 6 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for no gain to the Nevad 27Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+6
99.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Daewood Davis for 6 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Hunter Kampmoyer for 21 yds for a TD, (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
100.0%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 22Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
100.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
100.0%
Hamish McClure pass complete to Dominic Christian for 10 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
100.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for no gain to the Nevad 36Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
100.0%
Hamish McClure pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 5 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-1
100.0%
Hamish McClure sacked by Keyon Ware-Hudson for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Quinton Conaway punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 28TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:04100% → 100%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
Darrian Felix run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 24Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
100.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Tevin Jeannis for 14 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
100.0%
Darrian Felix run for 62 yds for a TD, (Adam Stack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
100.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 6 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
100.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Quinton Conaway punt for 55 yds, downed at the Oregn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:26
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brady Aiello for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+2.7
TD · Q2 7:13
Justin Herbert pass complete to Ryan Bay for 16 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q2 8:28
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com