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USC

USC 35 at Colorado 31

COLO
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2019 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:08 · Ben Griffiths punt for 49 yds , Dimitri Stanley returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Pregame prior−4.0Home team on offense+4.6Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score differential+1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:15: Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 71 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +14.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:15: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 21 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +17.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 9:16: Steven Montez run for 17 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +17.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:25: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 44 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +24.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 2:15: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +48.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 8 of 9USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 9:04COLO 4th & 5 at USC 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:36USC 4th & 15 at USC 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:51COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:43USC 4th & 1 at USC 19, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:32COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:54COLO 4th & 2 at USC 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    49.1%−2.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:03USC 4th & 9 at COLO 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−10.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:42COLO 4th & 18 at USC 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−1.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:04USC 4th & 4 at USC 47, down 10
    Close callPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:49COLO 4th & 23 at COLO 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−4.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:22COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−5.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:08USC 4th & 25 at USC 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−5.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:16COLO 4th & 9 at USC 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    66.2%−2.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:27COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.1%−7.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 14:01USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55COLO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:52COLO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:48USC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:15COLO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:15USC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:16COLO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:25USC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:15USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4877% → 77%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
22.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 27 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
23.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 11 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
22.9%
Amon-Ra St. Brown run for 37 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:5323% → 25%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.0%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+27
23.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for a loss of 10 yards lat. to K.D. Nixon for 12 yds USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 Yards) to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
23.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 11 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
23.4%
Tony Brown run for 8 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+5
23.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 5 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
23.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 9 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+4
24.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
24.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 9 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+2
24.3%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the USC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
24.5%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
24.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
24.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q1 9:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
25.2%
James Stefanou 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3INT
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:4375% → 75%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
24.9%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 15Similar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+8
25.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+13
25.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 13 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
25.2%
Kenan Christon run for 13 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
25.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 8 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
25.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+9
25.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 9 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
25.1%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted K.J. Trujillo return for 3 yds to the Colo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 6:1026% → 33%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
25.8%
Steven Montez run for 15 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
26.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 7 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+13
27.1%
Steven Montez run for 13 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
27.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
28.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 6 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+1
28.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
28.7%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
28.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 12 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
28.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 18 yds to the USC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
29.1%
Alex Fontenot run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 3Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
29.3%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 8Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
29.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 6 yds to the USC 2Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
29.2%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 7Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
32.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 7 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0568% → 66%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
32.0%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
32.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Erik KrommenhoekSimilar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-7
33.0%
Kedon Slovis sacked by K.J. Trujillo for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 19Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 15
OWN 19
+56
34.0%
Ben Griffiths punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Dimitri Stanley at the COLORADO 35 COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Colo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3133% → 34%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
32.6%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
33.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 11 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
34.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 9 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-10
35.0%
COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Colo 39Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
34.2%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+5
33.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 5 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
33.7%
Alex Kinney punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0165% → 64%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
34.8%
Kenan Christon run for 4 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+5
35.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 5 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 1
OWN 19
0
35.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
36.5%
Ben Griffiths punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Dimitri Stanley at the Colo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:4536% → 49%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
35.5%
Alex Fontenot run for 5 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
37.1%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
37.1%
Steven Montez run for 4 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
39.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 7 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+33
39.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 33 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
40.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 3 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+2
41.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
48.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 7 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0053% → 64%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
47.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 7 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
47.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 19 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
46.5%
Amon-Ra St. Brown run for 7 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+5
46.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
46.7%
Slovis, Kedon pass incomplete, PENALTY COLORADO roughing passer (Landman, Nate) 15 yards to the COLORADO17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
46.5%
Amon-Ra St. Brown run for 6 yds to the Colo 11Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 4
OPP 11
0
47.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+8
48.5%
Kedon Slovis run for 8 yds to the Colo 3 Kedon Slovis fumbled, forced by Mikial Onu, recovered by USCSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kenan Christon for 3 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 2:1241% → 41%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
40.8%
Alex Fontenot run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 24Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
41.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 12 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
42.3%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
41.9%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+5
42.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 5 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-4
42.5%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the Colo 41Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
41.2%
Alex Kinney punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:2558% → 57%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
42.5%
Kenan Christon run for 7 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 3
OWN 22
0
41.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+24
43.5%
Kenan Christon run for 24 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3843% → 58%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 4 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
57.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 71 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5444% → 60%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
55.9%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 23Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
58.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+22
59.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 22 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+26
56.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 26 yds to the Colo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
39.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 21 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 2:4646% → 66%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
46.4%
Alex Fontenot run for 5 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
48.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Brady Russell for 6 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
49.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 13 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
50.4%
USC Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the USC 37Similar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 5
OPP 37
0
50.5%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+3
50.9%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 2
OPP 34
0
50.8%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+17
49.0%
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 17 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
66.4%
Steven Montez run for 17 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:1337% → 34%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
63.0%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 20Similar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
63.5%
Slovis, Kedon pass incomplete to Pittman Jr., Michael, PENALTY COLORADO pass interference 15 yards to the USC35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
62.3%
Kenan Christon run for 4 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
61.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
50
+16
61.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 16 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
59.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 11 yds to the Colo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
59.7%
Kenan Christon run for 7 yds to the Colo 16Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 3
OPP 16
-6
60.2%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 22Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
63.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
65.8%
Chase McGrath 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 4:1668% → 72%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
67.9%
COLORADO Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Colo 17Similar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+9
67.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 9 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+19
68.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 19 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
72.3%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+17
72.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 17 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
74.0%
COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 44Similar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+5
73.5%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+2
73.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 2 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 13
OPP 37
0
74.2%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 13
OPP 37
-5
72.2%
COLORADO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USC 42Similar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 18
OPP 42
0
72.2%
Alex Kinney punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:3227% → 25%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
72.8%
Kedon Slovis run for 3 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
73.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+17
73.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 17 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
71.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
72.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 6 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q3 0:12
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
73.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
75.3%
Ben Griffiths punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:1177% → 77%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+27
76.6%
Blake Stenstrom run for 27 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
78.1%
K.D. Nixon run for 4 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-10
78.8%
COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Colo 31Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+5
76.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 5 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 11
OWN 36
-12
78.0%
Steven Montez sacked by Caleb Tremblay for a loss of 12 yards to the Colo 24Similar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 23
OWN 24
-2
77.3%
Alex Kinney punt for 40 yds , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:1823% → 47%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
76.8%
Kenan Christon run for 4 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+7
75.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 7 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
76.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
76.7%
Kenan Christon run for 11 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
52.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 44 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5663% → 61%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.6%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
62.1%
Alex Fontenot run for no gain to the Colo 25Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
61.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. NixonSimilar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.6%
Alex Kinney punt for 60 yds , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for 4 yds to the USC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:5240% → 35%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
60.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 11 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
58.3%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-15
58.2%
USC Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the USC 17Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 23
OWN 17
-2
61.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kenan Christon for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 15Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 25
OWN 15
0
63.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 25
OWN 15
+49
64.6%
Ben Griffiths punt for 49 yds , Dimitri Stanley returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 1:4267% → 69%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
66.8%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
68.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. NixonSimilar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+19
66.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 19 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
71.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
72.3%
Steven Montez run for 6 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
73.2%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 4
OPP 38
-5
71.1%
COLORADO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USC 43Similar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
69.1%
Alex Kinney punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 3:5237% → 89%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
62.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 10 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
63.0%
Kenan Christon run for 7 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
60.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
63.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Kenan ChristonSimilar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+14
65.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 14 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
59.3%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Jamar Montgomery for a loss of 10 yards to the USC 31 Kedon Slovis fumbled, recovered by USC Kenan ChristonSimilar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 20
OWN 31
+19
64.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 19 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 1
50
+1
56.9%
Quincy Jountti run for 1 yd to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
57.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 9 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+4
56.0%
Quincy Jountti run for 4 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
59.7%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 37Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+37
11.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:4124% → 23%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
24.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 12 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
24.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 6 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
27.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. NixonSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
25.3%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+3
22.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 3 yds to the Colo 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25END OF HALF
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:5393% → 94%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
7.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 14
50
-4
7.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 46Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 18
OWN 46
-5
6.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:15
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
-48.3
TD · Q4 11:25
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 44 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
-24
TD · Q3 9:16
Steven Montez run for 17 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)
+17.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com