2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreCOLO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:31 · Oscar Draguicevich III punt for 62 yds, downed at the Colo 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:53: Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 22 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:22: Max Borghi run for 47 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:05: Blake Mazza 20 yd FG GOOD — WSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:06: Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +7.2 pts (now 12%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:16: Brandon Arconado 44 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick) — WSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7COLO made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 10:53COLO 4th & 3 at WSU 31, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 19.4% before the snapGo for it19.4%52% to convertField goalTheir call19.3%−0.154% to makePunt19.3%−0.2average punt
- Q1 2:15COLO 4th & 7 at WSU 7, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.4% before the snapGo for it16.0%−0.228% to convertField goalTheir call16.2%91% to makePunt13.6%−2.6average punt
- Q2 12:22COLO 4th & 17 at WSU 35, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.3% before the snapGo for it11.9%−0.815% to convertField goalTheir call12.7%45% to makePunt12.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 12:22WSU 4th & 2 at COLO 45, up 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.8%57% to convertField goal86.3%−1.525% to makePunt87.0%−0.8average punt
- Q2 5:22WSU 4th & 2 at WSU 28, up 18Close callPunted · 88.6% before the snapGo for it88.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.2%−0.6average punt
- Q2 3:55COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 37, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snapGo for it10.1%−0.534% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.6%average punt
- Q2 0:05WSU 4th & 3 at COLO 3, up 18Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snapGo for it90.5%44% to convertField goalTheir call89.1%−1.393% to makePunt84.4%−6.1average punt
- Q3 15:00WSU 4th & 2 at WSU 45, up 21Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it95.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.7%−0.4average punt
- Q3 10:11COLO 4th & 12 at WSU 42, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.1%−0.324% to convertField goal4.0%−0.330% to makePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q3 8:46WSU 4th & 15 at WSU 7, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it95.3%−1.015% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.3%average punt
- Q3 2:16COLO 4th & 15 at COLO 16, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it1.6%−1.016% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q4 11:26COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 23, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 7:28WSU 4th & 8 at COLO 19, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%77% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 7:28COLO 4th & 13 at COLO 22, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:31WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 21, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 4:38COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 42, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5COLO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 8:42WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.3%97% to makeGo for two81.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:53WSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.4%97% to makeGo for two83.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:22WSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.6%97% to makeGo for two87.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:06COLO Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.4%97% to makeGo for two7.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:16WSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:31WSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCOLODrive 1MISSED FG11 plays · 39 yds · 4:0722% → 23%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
77.8%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr., broken up by Daniel IsomSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+13
77.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 13 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
77.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+4
77.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Brady Russell for 4 yds to the WshSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2TD8 plays · 69 yds · 2:1177% → 78%
Q1 10:53
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+13
76.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Rodrick Fisher for 13 yds to the WshSt 47 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+30
77.3%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 30 yds to the Colo 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.3%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
WSUDrive 4TD4 plays · 26 yds · 0:5579% → 81%
COLODrive 5FG12 plays · 68 yds · 4:3820% → 21%
Q1 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
80.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 4 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+9
79.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 9 yds to the WshSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+29
79.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 29 yds to the WshSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
79.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Brady Russell for 3 yds to the WshSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6TD6 plays · 73 yds · 1:4979% → 85%
COLODrive 7MISSED FG10 plays · 39 yds · 2:5416% → 14%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
84.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 9 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
83.9%
Alex Fontenot run for 5 yds to the WshSt 43 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Daniel Isom) to the WshSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-7
83.5%
Steven Montez sacked by Karson Block for a loss of 7 yards to the WshSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8DOWNS7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
85.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 2 yds to the WshSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9INT8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
WSUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
87.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 8 yds to the WshSt 28Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
87.7%
Anthony Gordon pass incomplete to Easop Winston Jr., broken up by Nate LandmanSimilar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
86.9%
Oscar Draguicevich III punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
WSUDrive 12FG13 plays · 76 yds · 2:5889% → 94%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
88.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 8 yds to the WshSt 43Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+9
88.4%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 9 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
88.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 8 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
88.6%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 12 yds to the Colo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
94.6%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 12 yds to the WshSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
94.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 8 yds to the WshSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
94.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for no gain to the WshSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+7
94.4%
Oscar Draguicevich III punt for 42 yds , Dimitri Stanley returns for 7 yds to the WASHST 48 COLORADO Penalty, targeting (10 Yards) to the Colo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15PUNT10 plays · 48 yds · 2:506% → 5%
WSUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1696% → 97%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
96.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for no gain to the WshSt 12Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
96.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 4 yds to the WshSt 16Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 6
OWN 16
-9
97.2%
Anthony Gordon sacked by Alex Tchangam and Terrance Lang for a loss of 9 yards to the WshSt 7 Anthony Gordon fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 15
OWN 7
0
96.9%
Oscar Draguicevich III punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dimitri Stanley at the Colo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17TD8 plays · 51 yds · 2:534% → 12%
WSUDrive 18TD8 plays · 81 yds · 2:4291% → 99%
Q3 4:58
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+4
91.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 4 yds to the WshSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
91.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 9 yds to the WshSt 39Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-4
91.6%
Max Borghi run for 6 yds to the WshSt 45 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Easop Winston Jr.) to the WshSt 35Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+17
91.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 17 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+44
98.5%
Brandon Arconado 44 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
97.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Alex Fontenot for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 20Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 11
OWN 20
-10
97.6%
Fontenot, Alex rush for no gain to the COLO20 (Woods, Jahad), PENALTY COLO holding (Lynott, Tim) 10 yards to the COLO10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 21
OWN 10
+6
97.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 6 yds to the Colo 16Similar
Q3 2:16
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
97.6%
Alex Kinney punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20TD9 plays · 65 yds · 4:0599% → 100%
Q3 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
98.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 9 yds to the WshSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 8 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
99.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 17 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
99.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 11 yds to the Colo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
99.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 12 yds to the Colo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
WSUDrive 22INT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
99.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for a loss of 7 yards to the WshSt 31Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+23
99.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 23 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
99.9%
Borghi, Max rush for 5 yards to the COLO41 (Allen, Jash), PENALTY WSU holding (Watson, Josh) 10 yards to the WSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 20
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Anthony Gordon pass intercepted Derrion Rakestraw return for no gain to the Colo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
WSUDrive 24FG4 plays · 2 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
99.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 2 yds to the Colo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 26PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:31
4TH & 5
OWN 26
-5
99.9%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, false start (Marcus Strong) to the WshSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 27PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
99.9%
Blake Stenstrom pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 12 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+23
99.9%
Alex Kinney punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WASHST 20 COLORADO Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the WshSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 28END OF GAME3 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:06
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)
-7.2
TD · Q3 2:16
Brandon Arconado 44 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)
+6.7
FG · Q2 0:05
Blake Mazza 20 yd FG GOOD
+6.5