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COLO

Colorado 3 at Oregon 45

ORE
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2019 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:40 · Justin Herbert pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 9 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Pregame prior+42.0Home team on offense+1.0Score differential+0.2Blowout margin−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 2:46: James Stefanou 27 yd FG GOOD — COLO win probability +0.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 45%).
  2. FG · Q2 14:10: Camden Lewis 32 yd FG GOOD — ORE win probability +0.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:39: Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +1.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:20: Jaylon Redd run for 3 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:54: Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 13 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6COLO made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:37COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:40ORE 4th & 5 at COLO 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:40ORE 4th & 3 at COLO 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:46COLO 4th & 2 at ORE 9, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.5%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:10ORE 4th & 5 at COLO 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:10COLO 4th & 3 at COLO 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:08ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:24COLO 4th & 17 at COLO 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:15COLO 4th & 8 at ORE 41, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:07ORE 4th & 24 at ORE 18, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:26COLO 4th & 1 at ORE 12, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.8%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:29COLO 4th & 13 at ORE 16, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:29ORE 4th & 3 at COLO 21, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:18COLO 4th & 16 at COLO 13, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:37ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:39ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:20ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:54ORE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:40ORE Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:36ORE Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2394% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.9%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
93.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 7 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
93.9%
Herbert, Justin pass complete to Redd, Jaylon for 9 yards to the ORE46 (Abrams, Delrick;Onu, Mikial), PENALTY COLO holding 10 yards to the ORE47, 1ST DOWN ORE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-19
93.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 19 yards to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 29
OWN 28
+22
93.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 22 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
50
+17
93.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 17 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
93.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 24 yds to the Colo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
93.9%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Colo 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
93.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson III, broken up by Derrion RakestrawSimilar
Q1 11:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 7 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
93.4%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
93.4%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
93.4%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Beau BisharatSimilar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 6
OPP 0
0
93.4%
Kinney, Alex punt 49 yards to the ORE23, Holland, Jevon return to the ORE26 (Jackson, Jaylon), PENALTY ORE holding off-setting, PENALTY COLO holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+18
93.5%
Alex Kinney punt for 44 yds , Jevon Holland returns for 18 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
93.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 14 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
93.4%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
93.4%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
93.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Bryan AddisonSimilar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+9
93.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 9 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
93.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob Breeland, broken up by Akil JonesSimilar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
93.4%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+1
93.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 1 yd to the Colo 19Similar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 3
OPP 19
0
93.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to CJ VerdellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:477% → 9%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
92.8%
Alex Fontenot run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 17Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+4
92.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 4 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+11
92.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 11 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
92.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 5 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
92.6%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Alex FontenotSimilar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+6
92.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 6 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
92.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 15 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
92.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 10 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
92.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 15 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
92.4%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
92.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 4 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+4
91.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 4 yds to the Oregn 9Similar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+27
90.7%
James Stefanou 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 3:3691% → 91%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
91.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 22 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
91.4%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 6 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+4
91.5%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 4 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
91.5%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+22
91.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 22 yds to the Colo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
91.5%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 8 yds to the Colo 8Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+4
91.5%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 4 yds to the Colo 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
91.5%
OREGON Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Colo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
90.8%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Juwan Johnson, broken up by Delrick Abrams Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
90.8%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 5 yds to the Colo 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
90.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
91.2%
Camden Lewis 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.0%
Deion Smith run for 7 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
90.6%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr., broken up by Deommodore LenoirSimilar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
90.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Tony Brown, broken up by Isaac Slade-MatautiaSimilar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
91.1%
Alex Kinney punt for 40 yds, downed at the Oregn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
90.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darrian Felix for 4 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
91.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Darrian FelixSimilar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
90.8%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
90.5%
Blake Maimone punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Dimitri Stanley at the Colo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
90.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-5
90.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Alex Fontenot for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 18Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-5
90.9%
Steven Montez sacked by La'Mar Winston Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 13Similar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+6
91.1%
Alex Kinney punt for 48 yds , Jevon Holland returns for 6 yds to the Oregn 19 OREGON Penalty, Offensive holding (14 Yards) to the Oregn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:4290% → 93%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
90.4%
CJ Verdell run for 18 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
90.9%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+30
91.0%
CJ Verdell run for 30 yds to the Colo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
91.1%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+4
91.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Bryan Addison for 4 yds to the Colo 11Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+10
90.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 10 yds to the Colo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.3%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10INT
18 plays · 69 yds · 5:187% → 8%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
92.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 16 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
92.8%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
92.8%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+15
92.8%
Montez, Steven pass incomplete to Shenault, Lavis (Graham Jr., T.), PENALTY ORE pass interference 15 yards to the ORE45, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
92.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 15
50
+20
93.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 20 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
92.1%
Alex Fontenot run for no gain to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+15
92.1%
Montez, Steven pass incomplete to Nixon, K.D., PENALTY ORE pass interference 15 yards to the ORE15, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
92.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 5 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
92.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+5
92.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 5 yds to the Oregn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
92.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Oregn 1Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
91.7%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 6Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
91.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jalen Harris for 5 yds to the Oregn 1Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
92.1%
Montez, Steven pass incomplete to Russell, Brady, QB hurry by Woods Jr., Haki, PENALTY COLO holding 10 yards to the ORE11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
92.3%
Steven Montez pass intercepted, touchback. Verone McKinley III return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 1:0794% → 98%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
93.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson III, broken up by Mark PerrySimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+15
93.5%
COLORADO Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
93.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 9 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+39
94.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 39 yds to the Colo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
94.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+14
94.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 14 yds to the Colo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
94.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Hunter Kampmoyer, broken up by Mikial OnuSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.6%
Jaylon Redd run for 3 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
96.8%
Dimitri Stanley run for 4 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
96.7%
Steven Montez pass intercepted Bryson Young return for no gain to the Colo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:2398% → 100%
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
97.7%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+23
97.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 23 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
97.7%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Colo 13Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
97.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Hunter KampmoyerSimilar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+13
99.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 13 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
99.4%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 15Similar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+9
99.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 9 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-5
99.4%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 19Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+3
99.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+24
99.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 24 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+53
99.4%
Steven Montez pass intercepted Verone McKinley III return for 53 yds to the Colo 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:04100% → 100%
Q3 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.6%
COLORADO Penalty, personal foul (4 Yards) to the Colo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.6%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 3 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17INT
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:250% → 0%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
99.6%
Montez, Steven pass incomplete to Nixon, K.D., QB hurry by Cunningham, MJ, PENALTY COLO holding 10 yards to the COLO17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+14
99.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 14 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
99.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 11 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
99.5%
Montez, Steven pass incomplete to Shenault, Lavis, PENALTY ORE pass interference 15 yards to the ORE43, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
99.6%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jaylon JacksonSimilar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
99.7%
Steven Montez pass intercepted, touchback. Nick Pickett return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.7%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
99.7%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
99.7%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Schooler, B., PENALTY ORE holding 10 yards to the ORE22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+8
99.7%
CJ Verdell run for 8 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
99.7%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 12
OWN 30
-12
99.7%
Justin Herbert sacked by Terrance Lang for a loss of 12 yards to the Oregn 18 OREGON Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the Oregn 18Similar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 24
OWN 18
+9
99.7%
Blake Maimone punt for 49 yds , Dimitri Stanley returns for 9 yds to the Colo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 43 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
99.8%
Steven Montez run for 3 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
99.8%
Deion Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
99.8%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Dimitri StanleySimilar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+14
99.8%
Steven Montez run for 14 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
99.7%
Deion Smith run for 9 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
99.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-5
99.7%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 24Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+18
99.7%
Deion Smith run for 18 yds to the Oregn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
99.7%
COLORADO Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
99.7%
Deion Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 23Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+8
99.7%
Deion Smith run for 8 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+3
99.7%
Deion Smith run for 3 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 1
OPP 12
-3
99.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:17100% → 100%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+70
99.8%
CJ Verdell run for 70 yds to the Colo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
99.8%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 7 yds to the Colo 8Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+6
99.8%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 6 yds to the Colo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
99.8%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
99.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 4 yds to the Colo 1Similar
Q4 14:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21MISSED FG
18 plays · 59 yds · 8:070% → 0%
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q4 14:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
99.9%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 22Similar
Q4 14:36
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
99.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 9 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q4 14:36
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
99.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Brady Russell for 8 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
99.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 8 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q4 14:36
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 4 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
99.9%
Montez, Steven pass incomplete to Arias, Daniel, PENALTY ORE pass interference 15 yards to the ORE34, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
99.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 14:36
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+3
99.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 14:36
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+5
99.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
99.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q4 14:36
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+5
99.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
99.9%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 18Similar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 15
OPP 18
-1
99.9%
Jaren Mangham run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 14:36
2ND & 16
OPP 19
0
99.9%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:36
3RD & 16
OPP 19
+3
99.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 3 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+33
100.0%
James Stefanou 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 61 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+47
99.9%
Travis Dye run for 47 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
100.0%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 33Similar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+14
100.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Daewood Davis for 14 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 1
OPP 19
-2
100.0%
Darrian Felix run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 21Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
100.0%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Daewood Davis OREGON Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+2
99.9%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Colo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
100.0%
Joe Davis run for 4 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-4
100.0%
Joe Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 19Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-1
100.0%
Tyler Lytle sacked by Nate Heaukulani for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 18Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 11
OWN 18
-5
100.0%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 13Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 16
OWN 13
+32
100.0%
Alex Kinney punt for 47 yds COLORADO Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Colo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
100.0%
Darrian Felix run for 2 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+8
100.0%
Darrian Felix run for 8 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:20
Jaylon Redd run for 3 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+3
TD · Q2 7:39
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q3 12:54
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 13 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+1.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com