Try the model
CSU

Colorado State 31 at Colorado 52

COLO
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2019 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+3.8COLO 99.4%Mustafa Johnson 9 Yd Fumble Return(James Stefanou Kick)AWAY 31 - HOME 52 · Q4 3:57
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:57 · Mustafa Johnson 9 Yd Fumble Return (James Stefanou Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior+2.7Home team on offense+31.5Score differential+22.4Garbage-time factor+8.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:35: Dante Wright 41 Yd Run (Max Poduska Kick) — CSU win probability +11.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:25: Laviska Shenault Jr. 25 Yd pass from Steven Montez (James Stefanou Kick) — COLO win probability +7.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:47: Alex Fontenot 7 Yd Run (James Stefanou Kick) — COLO win probability +6.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:00: Alex Fontenot 14 Yd Run (James Stefanou Kick) — COLO win probability +6.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:13: Cameron Butler 13 Yd pass from Collin Hill (Max Poduska Kick) — CSU win probability +9.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 6CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 5:42COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:13COLO 4th & 4 at CSU 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.8%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:35CSU 4th & 2 at COLO 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.8%−1.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q3 10:46COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  5. Q3 4:30CSU 4th & 9 at COLO 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 0:44COLO 4th & 2 at CSU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    83.1%−3.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q4 8:03CSU 4th & 14 at CSU 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  8. Q4 5:52COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 35, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:57CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:24CSU 4th & 8 at COLO 20, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:01COLO 4th & 3 at COLO 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:30CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:30COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:42CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:39CSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:37COLO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:35CSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:25COLO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:47COLO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:00COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:13CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:16COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:57COLO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2585% → 85%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
85.3%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 23Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
85.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 6 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
85.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (11 Yards) to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
85.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 32 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
84.9%
Alex Fontenot run for no gain to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
84.8%
Steven Montez run for 10 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
84.7%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+12
84.6%
Jaren Mangham run for 12 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
84.5%
Jaren Mangham run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 3Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
84.4%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the ColSt 1Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.2%
Jalen Harris 1 Yd pass from Steven Montez (James Stefanou Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:1815% → 17%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
84.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 6 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
84.6%
Jaylen Thomas run for 1 yd to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+31
84.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 31 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
84.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
84.1%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+39
82.4%
Dante Wright 39 Yd pass from Collin Hill (Max Poduska Kick)Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-15
82.8%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Marvin Kinsey Jr.) to the ColSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5183% → 82%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.9%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
82.8%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
82.4%
Steven Montez run for 1 yd to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
82.2%
Alex Kinney punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4INT
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:4218% → 20%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
82.2%
Jaylen Thomas run for 9 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+5
81.6%
Jaylen Thomas run for 5 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
81.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dante Wright for 11 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
80.9%
Jaylen Thomas run for 5 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+6
80.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Adam Prentice for 6 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
80.0%
Collin Hill pass intercepted, touchback. Mikial Onu return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:0482% → 82%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
81.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 10 yds to the Colo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
81.7%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
81.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+15
81.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Rashad Ajayi) to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
82.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jalen Harris for 23 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
82.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+3
82.3%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
81.8%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jaren ManghamSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+41
81.8%
James Stefanou 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 5:2118% → 27%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
81.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+9
81.5%
Dante Wright run for 9 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
81.2%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
81.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 10 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
80.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+22
80.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Trey McBride for 22 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
79.3%
Dante Wright run for 9 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+14
79.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 14 yds to the Colo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
78.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the Colo 21Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+13
77.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Trey McBride for 13 yds to the Colo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
73.1%
Warren Jackson 8 Yd pass from Collin Hill (Max Poduska Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5175% → 82%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
75.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 8 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
75.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 15 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
75.4%
Alex Fontenot run for 11 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+38
75.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 38 yds to the ColSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
76.2%
Alex Fontenot run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 5Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
81.7%
Jaren Mangham 5 Yd Run (James Stefanou Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4921% → 34%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
79.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
77.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 8 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
77.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dante Wright for 11 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
76.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
76.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the Colo 45Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+4
77.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Cameron Butler for 4 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+41
66.5%
Dante Wright 41 Yd Run (Max Poduska Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:0170% → 81%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
69.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Dimitri StanleySimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+27
68.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Brady Russell for 27 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
72.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Brady Russell for 17 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
73.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+25
80.9%
Laviska Shenault Jr. 25 Yd pass from Steven Montez (James Stefanou Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
80.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27 Marvin Kinsey Jr. fumbled, recovered by Colo Jalen SamiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:4380% → 87%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
80.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+19
80.1%
Steven Montez run for 19 yds to the ColSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
86.5%
Alex Fontenot 7 Yd Run (James Stefanou Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13INT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:4215% → 15%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.3%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Marvin Kinsey Jr.Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
85.4%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Adam PrenticeSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
86.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 14 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
84.6%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
84.8%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
85.0%
Collin Hill pass intercepted Mikial Onu return for no gain to the Colo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0987% → 85%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
86.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Alex FontenotSimilar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
86.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
86.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to K.D. NixonSimilar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+13
85.2%
Alex Kinney punt for 48 yds , Dante Wright returns for 13 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 6:0015% → 20%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
85.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to EJ Scott for 11 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
85.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
84.7%
Christian Hunter run for 3 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+14
84.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Adam Prentice for 14 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
83.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 11 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
83.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Nikko Hall for 9 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+2
82.7%
Christian Hunter run for 2 yds to the Colo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
82.6%
Christian Hunter run for 5 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-15
82.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 15 yards to the Colo 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ColStSimilar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 20
OPP 35
+11
85.2%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dante Wright for 11 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
80.3%
Max Poduska 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:0884% → 95%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
84.1%
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 7 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+2
85.5%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+8
84.7%
Steven Montez run for 8 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
86.5%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the Colo 49Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
86.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 7 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+1
87.4%
Steven Montez run for 1 yd to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+5
86.4%
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+24
88.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 24 yds to the ColSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
95.0%
Alex Fontenot 14 Yd Run (James Stefanou Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:477% → 19%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
92.6%
COLORADO Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Mekhi Blackmon) to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+29
91.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 29 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
90.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
91.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 11 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
90.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 6 yds to the Colo 14Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+1
90.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the Colo 13Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+13
80.8%
Cameron Butler 13 Yd pass from Collin Hill (Max Poduska Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5788% → 96%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
87.7%
COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jamar Montgomery) to the Colo 15Similar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
87.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 5 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+19
87.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 19 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
89.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Laviska Shenault Jr.Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+16
88.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 16 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
89.8%
Laviska Shenault Jr. run for 23 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
96.1%
Alex Fontenot 22 Yd Run (James Stefanou Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:026% → 6%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 6 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
93.0%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Ty McCullouchSimilar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-10
93.4%
Collin Hill sacked by Terrance Lang for a loss of 10 yards to the ColSt 21Similar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+6
94.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 59 yds , K.D. Nixon returns for 6 yds to the Colo 27 COLORADO Penalty, Illegal Block (13 Yards) to the Colo 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:5196% → 97%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
95.8%
Alex Fontenot run for 13 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
96.0%
Alex Fontenot run for no gain to the Colo 26Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
96.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 9 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
96.7%
Alex Fontenot run for no gain to the Colo 35Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+6
96.6%
Alex Kinney punt for 63 yds , Dante Wright returns for 6 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21FUMBLE RETURN TD
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:595% → 1%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
94.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Nikko Hall for 9 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 1
OWN 17
0
94.0%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Nikko HallSimilar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 1
OWN 17
-5
94.5%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Nikko Hall) to the ColSt 12Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+4
94.7%
Jaylen Thomas run for 4 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 2
OWN 16
-9
99.4%
Mustafa Johnson 9 Yd Fumble Return (James Stefanou Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:271% → 1%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.4%
Collin Hill run for 10 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
99.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 17 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.4%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+15
99.4%
Collin Hill run for 15 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
99.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 9 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+2
99.3%
Jaylen Thomas run for 2 yds to the Colo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+2
99.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 2 yds to the Colo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:5999% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.2%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Nikko HallSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
99.3%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Nikko HallSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+2
99.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 2 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
99.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+3
99.8%
Deion Smith run for 3 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+1
99.8%
Deion Smith run for 1 yd to the Colo 25Similar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Alex Kinney punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+4
99.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Trey McBride for 4 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
99.4%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Marvin Kinsey Jr.Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+13
99.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Trey McBride for 13 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
99.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Warren Jackson for 9 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 39
0
99.4%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to EJ ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:35
Dante Wright 41 Yd Run (Max Poduska Kick)
-11
TD · Q4 12:13
Cameron Butler 13 Yd pass from Collin Hill (Max Poduska Kick)
-9.9
TD · Q2 0:25
Laviska Shenault Jr. 25 Yd pass from Steven Montez (James Stefanou Kick)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com