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CAL

California 28 at UCLA 18

UCLA
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:37 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:56: Chase Garbers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +7.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:38: Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +18.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:26: Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass to Delon Hurt for Two-Point Conversion) — UCLA win probability +28.0 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 14:53: Christopher Brown Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +17.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:57: Timeout CALIFORNIA, clock 09:57 — CAL win probability +9.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00UCLA 4th & 15 at UCLA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:58CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:26CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:06UCLA 4th & 5 at UCLA 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UCLA 4th & 7 at CAL 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    56.0%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:49UCLA 4th & 9 at CAL 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    45.6%−1.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:33UCLA 4th & 9 at CAL 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    42.8%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 47, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:15UCLA 4th & 3 at UCLA 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:57CAL 4th & 8 at UCLA 12, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.6%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    82.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−9.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:47UCLA 4th & 18 at UCLA 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:15CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:17UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 33, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:17UCLA 4th & 1 at CAL 2, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−7.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:26UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:04CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:56CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:38CAL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:26UCLA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    40.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:53CAL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
54.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 21 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
54.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-8
54.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Cameron Goode for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 41
0
54.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Devin Asiasi, broken up by Kuony DengSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 41
+3
54.7%
Wade Lees punt for 54 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 3 yds to the Cal 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
55.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 3 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
54.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon Clark, broken up by Darnay HolmesSimilar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
55.0%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
55.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 3:3555% → 59%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
55.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the UCLA 47Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+11
55.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 11 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
55.4%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 4
OPP 36
-11
55.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Brett Johnson for a loss of 11 yards to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 15
OPP 47
+20
55.1%
Joshua Kelley run for 20 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
55.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 8 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+19
58.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 19 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.8%
Chase Garbers run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
57.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 5 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
57.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Christopher Brown Jr., broken up by Keisean Lucier-SouthSimilar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
58.0%
Steven Coutts punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+21
58.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 21 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
59.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jaylen ErwinSimilar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
58.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 5 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
58.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Chase CotaSimilar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
58.2%
Wade Lees punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 2:3341% → 46%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
59.1%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+17
59.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 17 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
58.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
59.0%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+12
59.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 12 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
58.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
58.0%
Trevon Clark run for 3 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+44
54.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 44 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:0456% → 56%
Q1 3:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
55.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 16 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
56.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 3 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+14
56.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 14 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
57.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Lone Toailoa for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+6
56.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+7
55.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 7 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+6
56.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 6 yds to the Cal 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:5745% → 55%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
54.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 14 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
53.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+9
53.8%
Chase Garbers run for 9 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
53.4%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+28
53.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 28 yds to the UCLA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
52.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 5 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+4
52.8%
Marcel Dancy run for 4 yds to the UCLA 7Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+5
53.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
52.8%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCLA 1Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.9%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
47.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the UCLA 35Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+3
47.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+7
47.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 7 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
48.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 4 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
49.4%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+2
49.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
49.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
49.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd to the Cal 44Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
48.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kyle PhilipsSimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
47.2%
Wade Lees punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0056% → 57%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
44.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 11 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
44.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 7 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+2
43.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
43.4%
Chase Garbers run for 2 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
43.4%
Chase Garbers pass intercepted Darnay Holmes return for no gain to the UCLA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11FG
16 plays · 54 yds · 3:3344% → 52%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
44.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 9 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+3
46.2%
Demetric Felton run for 3 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
45.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
46.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Chase Cota, broken up by Chigozie AnusiemSimilar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+10
45.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 10 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
47.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
48.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
46.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kyle PhilipsSimilar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 4
OPP 35
-5
45.2%
Thmpsn-Robinson pass complete to Asiasi, Devin for 12 yards to the CAL23 (Hawkins, Jaylin), PENALTY UCLA illegal motion (Cota, Chase) 5 yards to the CAL40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 9
OPP 40
+13
43.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 13 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
48.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Joshua Kelley, broken up by Cameron GoodeSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-10
48.1%
Thmpsn-Robinson pass incomplete to Felton, D (Beck, Traveon), PENALTY UCLA holding (Murray, C) 10 yards to the CAL37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 20
OPP 37
+21
45.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 21 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
48.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 3 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
48.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+31
52.0%
JJ Molson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
46.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 10 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
45.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon Clark, broken up by Darnay HolmesSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
45.8%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 8 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
45.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
47.0%
Steven Coutts punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+18
48.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 18 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
48.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the UCLA 31Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-4
48.6%
Joshua Kelley run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+10
46.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 10 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
47.4%
Wade Lees punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 5:5654% → 76%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
46.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 16Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+29
47.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 29 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
44.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 5
50
+10
43.6%
DeShawn Collins run for 10 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
43.5%
DeShawn Collins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+17
43.5%
Chase Garbers run for 17 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
42.1%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Remigio, Nikko, PENALTY UCLA holding (Kaufusi, S) 11 yards to the UCLA9, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
42.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for no gain to the UCLA 9Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
42.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCLA 7Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
43.5%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Polk, Makai, PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Williams, R) 5 yards to the UCLA2, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
42.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCLA 1Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:0428% → 56%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
27.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 4 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
28.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
27.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jaylen Erwin, broken up by Elijah HicksSimilar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+15
26.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kuony Deng) to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
29.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kyle PhilipsSimilar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+39
27.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 39 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
30.6%
Kelley, Joshua rush for 1 yard to the CAL18 (Bequette, Luc), PENALTY CAL offside defense (Bequette, Luc) 5 yards to the CAL14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 5
OPP 14
0
30.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Demetric FeltonSimilar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+8
30.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 8 yds to the Cal 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
30.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 5 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass to Delon Hurt for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3355% → 78%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.8%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+20
44.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 20 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
41.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+38
41.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 38 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
39.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCLA 10Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
22.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
26.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
25.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted Ashtyn Davis return for no gain to the Cal 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 4:0576% → 86%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
23.7%
DeShawn Collins run for 12 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
23.3%
DeShawn Collins run for 5 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
22.6%
DeShawn Collins run for no gain to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+21
23.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 21 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
22.6%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-3
22.6%
Nikko Remigio run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 17Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+5
23.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 5 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q4 9:57
4TH & 8
OPP 12
0
14.1%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon Clark, broken up by Stephan BlaylockSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
16.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 9 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+3
17.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
17.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Cameron Goode for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 22Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+23
16.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 8 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, roughing passer (Aaron Maldonado) to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
18.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Delon HurtSimilar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
18.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kyle Philips, broken up by Traveon BeckSimilar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-8
17.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Aaron Maldonado for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 37Similar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 18
OWN 37
0
15.7%
Wade Lees punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 2:1888% → 91%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
12.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 18Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+10
12.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 10 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
12.2%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 25
OWN 16
+5
9.8%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 20
OWN 21
+1
9.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cal 22Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 19
OWN 22
+13
9.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 13 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
8.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21DOWNS
16 plays · 70 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
7.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by TEAM for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 17 Dorian Thompson-Robinson fumbled, recovered by UCLA Christaphany Murray , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+14
7.3%
Austin Burton pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 14 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
7.6%
Austin Burton pass complete to Demetric Felton for 2 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
7.1%
Demetric Felton run for 4 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
8.1%
Austin Burton run for 5 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+7
8.8%
Austin Burton pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 7 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
8.9%
Austin Burton pass incomplete, broken up by Kuony DengSimilar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
8.6%
Austin Burton run for 3 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+8
9.0%
Austin Burton pass complete to Kyle Philips for 8 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
9.5%
Austin Burton pass complete to Kyle Philips for 8 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+11
11.7%
Austin Burton pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 11 yds to the Cal 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
11.7%
Austin Burton pass complete to Demetric Felton for 10 yds to the Cal 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
11.7%
Austin Burton pass complete to Delon Hurt for 5 yds to the Cal 6Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+3
11.7%
Austin Burton run for 3 yds to the Cal 3Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+1
9.7%
Demetric Felton run for 1 yd to the Cal 2Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 1
OPP 2
-3
8.7%
Demetric Felton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:26
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass to Delon Hurt for Two-Point Conversion)
+28
TD · Q3 5:38
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)
-18.1
TD · Q4 14:53
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)
-17.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com