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CAL

California 24 at Stanford 20

STAN
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD-27.9STAN 44.1%Chase Garbers pass complete to NikkoRemigio for 18 yds for a TDAWAY 17 - HOME 17 · Q4 7:44
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:44 · Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 18 yds for a TD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Home team on offense−7.7Pregame prior+0.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:37: Greg Thomas 49 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +5.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:09: Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Sanborn KICK) — STAN win probability +18.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:44: Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 18 yds for a TD — CAL win probability +27.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 2:23: Ryan Sanborn 44 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +24.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:19: Chase Garbers run for 16 yds for a TD — CAL win probability +54.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 7CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:56CAL 4th & 12 at CAL 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:31STAN 4th & 4 at CAL 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    56.4%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 29, tied
    Close callWent for it · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:45STAN 4th & 12 at CAL 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:37CAL 4th & 8 at STAN 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:37STAN 4th & 5 at CAL 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    56.2%−1.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:11CAL 4th & 18 at STAN 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:55CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:03CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−2.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:10CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 8, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00CAL 4th & 21 at STAN 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−4.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%−2.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:33STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−2.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:23STAN 4th & 3 at CAL 26, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%−3.0
    64% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−26.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:19STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.6%−9.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 13:00STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:45CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:09STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:44CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:19CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 2:0057% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
57.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 9 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+7
57.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 7 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
57.2%
Osiris St. Brown run for 4 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+40
58.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Donald Stewart for 40 yds for a TD (Ryan Sanborn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
58.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 7 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+3
58.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
58.0%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
58.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-5
58.1%
Chase Garbers sacked by Casey Toohill for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 29Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
58.2%
Steven Coutts punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Michael Wilson at the Stanf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
59.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 14 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
59.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Scooter Harrington for 1 yd to the Stanf 40Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+14
59.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 14 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
59.6%
STANFORD Penalty, delay of game (Davis Mills) to the Stanf 49Similar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+6
59.4%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+5
59.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 5 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
59.5%
Davis Mills pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
59.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 30 yds, downed at the Cal 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 6:0239% → 45%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
60.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cal 11Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+19
60.7%
Chase Garbers run for 19 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
60.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 9 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+14
59.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 14 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
59.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+3
59.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 3 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+13
59.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 13 yds to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
59.3%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
59.4%
Nikko Remigio run for 8 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+2
59.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the Stanf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
59.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 5 yds to the Stanf 13Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+6
59.3%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 6 yds to the Stanf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
54.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:5958% → 59%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 5 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
58.2%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
57.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+43
56.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 43 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
59.9%
STANFORD Penalty, delay of game (Davis Mills) to the Cal 33Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+1
59.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 1 yd to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 32
-5
59.1%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 37
0
58.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Bradley Archer for no gain to the Cal 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 37
+7
58.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 7 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+48
58.6%
Ryan Sanborn 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:0840% → 45%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
59.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 15 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
58.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
58.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 6 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+15
58.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 15 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
57.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+3
57.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 3 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
57.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+49
55.4%
Greg Thomas 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
59.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+21
59.7%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 21 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
61.5%
Davis Mills run for 1 yd to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+4
61.5%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
61.3%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
60.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8MISSED FG
18 plays · 65 yds · 4:4644% → 45%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
56.0%
DeShawn Collins run for 3 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+10
56.0%
Chase Garbers run for 10 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
55.7%
DeShawn Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 24Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 13
OWN 24
0
56.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+39
56.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 39 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
53.0%
Chase Garbers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+3
54.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+14
52.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 14 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
50.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 7 yds to the Stanf 16Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+3
50.4%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the Stanf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
50.4%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-10
50.4%
Garbers, Chase pass complete to Duncan, Jordan for 11 yards to the STAN2, out-of-bounds, PENALTY CAL holding (Nisich, Erick) 10 yards to the STAN23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 20
OPP 23
+2
51.8%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 18
OPP 21
0
52.8%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 18
OPP 21
+38
55.0%
Greg Thomas 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jovan Swann N/A return for no gain to the Stanf 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9END OF HALF
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0858% → 58%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
57.7%
Davis Mills pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 11 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
57.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Nathaniel Peat for 6 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
54.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 21Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+9
54.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 9 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 30
-2
54.6%
Chase Garbers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
56.5%
Steven Coutts punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0059% → 60%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
58.5%
Davis Mills sacked by Cameron Goode for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+5
57.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 5 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+11
56.7%
Davis Mills run for 11 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
60.9%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Nathaniel Peat, broken up by Zeandae JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
59.7%
Davis Mills pass intercepted Daniel Scott return for no gain to the Cal 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
54.0%
Brown Jr., Chri rush for 7 yards to the CAL38 (Reid,G;Pryts,A), PENALTY CAL holding (Mettauer, McKad) 10 yards to the CAL21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+12
54.8%
Chase Garbers run for 12 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
53.8%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko Remigio, broken up by Curtis RobinsonSimilar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
55.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
56.5%
Steven Coutts punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Michael Wilson at the Stanf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13INT
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0058% → 62%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
58.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Jay Symonds for 8 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+1
60.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Stanf 37Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+4
59.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
60.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 19 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
61.8%
Davis Mills pass intercepted Jaylinn Hawkins return for no gain to the Cal 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0045% → 42%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
55.1%
DeShawn Collins run for 2 yds to the Cal 3Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+2
55.5%
DeShawn Collins run for 2 yds to the Cal 5Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+3
56.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 3 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 3
OWN 8
0
57.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15TD
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:5963% → 81%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
63.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+2
63.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+8
61.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 8 yds to the Cal 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
63.4%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+14
62.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 14 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Sanborn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:0327% → 24%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
72.9%
Chase Garbers run for 13 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
71.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 19 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
68.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+11
68.9%
Chase Garbers run for 11 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
68.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 40
-1
72.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 41
-5
73.1%
Chase Garbers sacked by Curtis Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 46
0
75.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko Remigio, broken up by Thomas BookerSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 21
OPP 46
0
76.4%
Ashtyn Davis punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Michael Wilson at the Stanf 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:5582% → 81%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
82.0%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the Stanf 16Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+4
81.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 4 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+15
80.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 15 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
83.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-2
83.7%
Davis Mills sacked by Cameron Goode for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
82.0%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Osiris St. BrownSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+15
81.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 38 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 15 yds to the 50 yard line CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Chigozie Anusiem) to the Cal 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18TD
6 plays · 84 yds · 3:4921% → 56%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
79.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 6 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+21
79.3%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Clark, Trevon, PENALTY STAN pass interference (Kelly,KB) 21 yards to the CAL37, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+40
77.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 40 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
72.0%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the Stanf 18Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
72.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Stanf 18Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+18
44.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 18 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 5:1757% → 86%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
56.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-2
60.4%
Davis Mills sacked by Jaylinn Hawkins for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+18
55.7%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 18 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
62.3%
Austin Jones run for 8 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+1
62.3%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+3
61.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
63.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
63.7%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+1
61.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+44
85.8%
Ryan Sanborn 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:0429% → 93%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
71.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 14 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
68.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 10 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
64.9%
Chase Garbers sacked by Jovan Swann for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+37
70.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 37 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
60.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
6.6%
Chase Garbers run for 16 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 6 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
24.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 3 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
23.9%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Osiris St. BrownSimilar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
21.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the Stanf 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:19
Chase Garbers run for 16 yds for a TD
-54.3
TD · Q4 7:44
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 18 yds for a TD
-27.9
FG · Q4 2:23
Ryan Sanborn 44 yd FG GOOD
+24.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com