Try the model
USC

USC 41 at California 17

CAL
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · California Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+1.3CAL 38.0%Chase McGrath 41 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 7 · Q1 0:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:07 · Chase McGrath 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Home team on offense−1.3Score differential−1.0Pregame prior−12.9Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 12:05: DeShawn Collins run for 5 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +2.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:22: Greg Thomas 37 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +3.7 pts (now 43%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:43: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 33 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +12.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:11: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +9.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:29: Stephen Carr run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +6.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 8:11CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:21USC 4th & 21 at USC 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:40CAL 4th & 19 at CAL 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:07USC 4th & 18 at CAL 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.9
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:22CAL 4th & 9 at USC 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−4.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:15USC 4th & 11 at USC 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:17CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:11CAL 4th & 14 at CAL 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−1.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:20USC 4th & 6 at CAL 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−7.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 38, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:18USC 4th & 3 at USC 45, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:07CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:12USC 4th & 1 at USC 47, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:05CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:11USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:43USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:11USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:29USC Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:12USC Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:24CAL Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5533% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
33.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 10 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
33.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
33.4%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Clark, Trevon (Steele, Chris), PENALTY USC pass interference (Steele, Chris) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+18
33.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 18 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
33.4%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
33.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 11 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
33.4%
Chase Garbers run for 11 yds to the USC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
33.4%
Brown Jr., Chri rush for loss of 4 yards to the USC14 (Rector, Christi), PENALTY USC personal foul (Rector, Christi) 5 yards to the USC5, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
36.0%
DeShawn Collins run for 5 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5064% → 65%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+21
35.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 21 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
35.4%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the USC 49Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+7
35.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+23
35.3%
Kenan Christon run for 23 yds to the Cal 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
35.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 9 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 1
OPP 12
-5
35.2%
USC Penalty, false start (Jalen McKenzie) to the Cal 17Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-1
35.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 18Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+18
35.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 18 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Makai Polk, broken up by Chris SteeleSimilar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 5 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
36.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 4 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 8:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
35.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
36.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. Brown, broken up by Camryn BynumSimilar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
36.7%
Kenan Christon run for 4 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 6
OWN 32
-15
36.8%
USC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the USC 17Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 21
OWN 17
0
37.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 21
OWN 17
0
37.4%
Ben Griffiths punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
37.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Marcel DancySimilar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-9
37.4%
Chase Garbers sacked by Brandon Pili for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 19
OWN 30
0
36.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 19
OWN 30
+7
36.4%
Steven Coutts punt for 40 yds , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for 7 yds to the USC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 4:2563% → 62%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
37.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 3 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+8
36.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 8 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
36.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 1 yd to the USC 49Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-9
36.6%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Tevin Paul for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 40Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 18
OWN 40
+45
37.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 45 yds to the Cal 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
36.0%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 18Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 13
OPP 18
0
36.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 13
OPP 18
-5
36.8%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Luc Bequette and Kuony Deng for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 23Similar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 18
OPP 23
+41
38.0%
Chase McGrath 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 5:3937% → 43%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
37.4%
DeShawn Collins run for 8 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+3
38.5%
DeShawn Collins run for 3 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
37.6%
Chase Garbers sacked by Caleb Tremblay and Marlon Tuipulotu for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 31
0
37.3%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 31
+14
36.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 14 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
38.8%
DeShawn Collins run for 6 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+4
39.2%
Chase Garbers run for 4 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
39.2%
Devon Modster pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 11 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
39.7%
DeShawn Collins run for 5 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
39.8%
DeShawn Collins run for no gain to the USC 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+8
39.0%
Devon Modster pass complete to Makai Polk for 8 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
39.8%
DeShawn Collins run for 1 yd to the USC 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
39.8%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
39.0%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q2 9:22
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
42.7%
Greg Thomas 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
40.5%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 20Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 14
OWN 20
-8
40.8%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Aaron Maldonado for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 12Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 22
OWN 12
+11
41.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kenan Christon for 11 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 11
OWN 23
+19
42.2%
Ben Griffiths punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 42 , Ashtyn Davis returns for 19 yds to the Cal 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
44.7%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jake Tonges for 9 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 1
OPP 49
-4
45.5%
Devon Modster run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 47 Devon Modster fumbled, recovered by Cal Devon ModsterSimilar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
44.4%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Collin MooreSimilar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
42.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 5:0659% → 71%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
40.6%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
40.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 4 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+1
40.0%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
40.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 1
OWN 40
0
38.7%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the USC 40Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+12
39.0%
Stephen Carr run for 12 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
38.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete, broken up by Evan WeaverSimilar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+17
38.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 17 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
37.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 1 yd to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+2
37.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 2 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 7
OPP 28
-5
38.5%
USC Penalty, false start (Stephen Carr) to the Cal 33Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+33
28.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 33 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
34.6%
Devon Modster sacked by Drake Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:4970% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
29.7%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
29.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Josh Falo for no gain to the USC 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+18
30.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 18 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+50
28.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 50 yds to the Cal 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
27.3%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 8Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
17.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
20.0%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 9 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
20.6%
DeShawn Collins run for 7 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
21.5%
Devon Modster sacked by Talanoa Hufanga for a loss of 7 yards to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+3
19.8%
Devon Modster pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 3 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
19.6%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 14
OWN 37
+13
19.5%
Steven Coutts punt for 39 yds , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for 13 yds to the USC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:0684% → 87%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+45
15.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 45 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
14.9%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-8
14.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 8 yds to the Cal 6 USC Penalty, Offensive holding (Drake London) to the Cal 22Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+8
15.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 8 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
13.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q3 7:20
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
13.2%
Chase McGrath 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15INT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
14.5%
DeShawn Collins run for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
15.1%
DeShawn Collins run for 4 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
15.1%
Devon Modster pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 7 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
15.9%
DeShawn Collins run for 2 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
15.8%
Devon Modster run for 2 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
16.0%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+32
15.8%
Devon Modster pass intercepted Greg Johnson return for 32 yds to the Cal 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:3591% → 98%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
9.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 14 yds to the Cal 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
9.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 6 yds to the Cal 3Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
9.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
9.3%
Slovis, Kedon pass incomplete to Pittman, Michae (Hicks, Elijah), PENALTY CAL pass interference (Hicks, Elijah) 1 yards to the CAL2, 1ST DOWN USC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.5%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17INT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
4.1%
Devon Modster run for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
4.1%
Devon Modster run for 2 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
4.2%
USC Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
4.2%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 7 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-5
4.3%
Modster, Devon pass incomplete to Young, Monroe, PENALTY CAL ineligible downfield on pass (Saffell, Michae) 5 yards to the CAL41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+24
4.2%
Devon Modster pass intercepted Isaiah Pola-Mao return for 24 yds to the Cal 35 Isaiah Pola-Mao fumbled, forced by DeShawn Collins, recovered by Cal McKade Mettauer USC Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:063% → 3%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
3.1%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
3.0%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to DeShawn CollinsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+8
3.0%
Devon Modster run for 8 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 43
-5
3.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Matthew Cindric) to the Cal 38Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
3.0%
Steven Coutts punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 3:2798% → 100%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
2.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 22 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
2.0%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+32
2.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 32 yds to the Cal 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
1.9%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+5
1.9%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the Cal 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Josh Falo for 5 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:480% → 2%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
0.3%
DeShawn Collins run for 16 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
0.3%
Modster, Devon pass incomplete to Walker III, Ric, PENALTY USC pass interference (Taylor-Stuart,) 9 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
50
+2
0.3%
DeShawn Collins run for 2 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+14
0.3%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jake Tonges for 14 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
2.1%
DeShawn Collins run for 34 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:0599% → 99%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
0.9%
Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+2
0.9%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+2
0.9%
Matt Fink run for 2 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
0.6%
Ben Griffiths punt for 53 yds, downed at the Cal 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
1.0%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 9 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 1
OWN 11
+3
1.1%
DeShawn Collins run for 3 yds to the Cal 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
1.1%
Devon Modster sacked by Nick Figueroa for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 12Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+14
1.1%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 14 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
1.1%
Devon Modster pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
1.1%
Devon Modster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
1.1%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
1.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
0.4%
Matt Fink run for 1 yd to the USC 39Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+3
0.4%
Quincy Jountti run for 3 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+5
0.4%
Quincy Jountti run for 5 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+6
0.5%
Quincy Jountti run for 6 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:43
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 33 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)
-12
TD · Q3 12:11
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)
-9.9
TD · Q3 2:29
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com