2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreCAL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:26 · TJ Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q1 8:35: Zack Moss run for no gain to the Utah 1 — CAL win probability +1.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q2 12:48: Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 40 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +1.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:50: Jason Shelley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +4.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 3:38: Jordan Wilmore run for 4 yds to the Utah 28 — UTAH win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:20: Jason Shelley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 1 yd for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 15:00UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 34, tiedClose callPunted · 91.0% before the snapGo for it91.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 13:00CAL 4th & 7 at UTAH 41, tiedClose callPunted · 9.6% before the snapGo for it9.6%37% to convertField goal9.5%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call9.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:50CAL 4th & 11 at CAL 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snapGo for it10.3%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.4%average punt
- Q2 12:48CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snapGo for it9.1%−0.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.4%average punt
- Q2 3:46CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 34, down 21Close callPunted · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 0:55UTAH 4th & 1 at CAL 19, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.8%71% to convertField goal96.4%−0.477% to makePunt94.3%−2.5average punt
- Q3 15:00CAL 4th & 30 at CAL 21, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it0.8%−1.06% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q3 9:26CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 28, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 8:22UTAH 4th & 11 at CAL 47, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q3 4:35CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 23, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00UTAH 4th & 1 at CAL 45, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%70% to convertField goal99.6%−0.225% to makePunt99.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 15:00UTAH 4th & 11 at CAL 44, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.127% to convertField goal99.8%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 11:24CAL 4th & 11 at CAL 5, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:44UTAH 4th & 3 at CAL 14, up 35Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%51% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−<0.184% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 4:44CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 35, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 4:50UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.2%97% to makeGo for two89.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:48UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:50UTAH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:20UTAH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:26UTAH Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTAHDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT10 plays · 27 yds · 0:008% → 8%
UTAHDrive 3TD8 plays · 99 yds · 3:4591% → 92%
CALDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.3%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Ashtyn Davis, broken up by Julian BlackmonSimilar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
91.4%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Jordan Duncan, broken up by Tareke LewisSimilar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+8
91.4%
Steven Coutts punt for 51 yds , Demari Simpkins returns for 8 yds to the Utah 45 UTAH Penalty, personal foul (10 Yards) to the Utah 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5TD11 plays · 90 yds · 4:3291% → 93%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
90.7%
Huntley, Tyler pass complete to Thedford,Hunter for 12 yards to the UTAH22 (Davis, Ashtyn;Weaver, Evan), PENALTY UTAH ineligible downfield on pass (Kuithe, Brant) 5 yards to the UTAH5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+40
92.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 40 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
UTAHDrive 7TD13 plays · 72 yds · 6:2692% → 97%
Q2 11:16
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
92.1%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Bryan Thompson, broken up by Traveon BeckSimilar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+11
91.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 11 yds to the Utah 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
92.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 9 yds to the Utah 49Similar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
92.6%
Demari Simpkins run for 4 yds to the Cal 34 Demari Simpkins fumbled, forced by Evan Weaver,Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+8
92.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 8 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+8
92.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 8 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
92.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 11 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 1:044% → 4%
UTAHDrive 9TD13 plays · 76 yds · 3:1897% → 99%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
97.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 13 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+15
97.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Derrick Vickers for 15 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
97.3%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Demari Simpkins, broken up by Elijah HicksSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
97.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 7 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.2%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 1 yd for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT8 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.9%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Collin Moore for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
98.7%
Brasch, Spencer pass intercepted by Bernard,Francis at the CAL28, Bernard,Francis return to the CAL28, PENALTY UTAH holding (Lloyd, Devin) 10 yards to the CAL41, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
98.8%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Jordan Duncan UTAH Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-8
98.8%
Spencer Brasch sacked by Josh Nurse for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 15 Spencer Brasch fumbled, recovered by Cal Spencer Brasch , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 36
OWN 15
+6
98.9%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Ben Skinner for 6 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 30
OWN 21
0
98.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12TD4 plays · 50 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
99.7%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Ali'i Niumatalolo for 10 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+10
99.7%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 10 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 5
OPP 41
-6
99.7%
Jason Shelley sacked by Elijah Hicks for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:35
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+5
99.8%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 5 yds to the Cal 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
99.8%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 9 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
99.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Demari Simpkins at the Utah 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16PUNT10 plays · 21 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:24
4TH & 11
OWN 5
0
99.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Demari Simpkins at the Cal 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18MISSED FG8 plays · 33 yds · 5:05100% → 100%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
99.9%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 15 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Robby Rowell pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 5 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.9%
DeShawn Collins run for 14 yds to the Cal 45 CALIFORNIA Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 6
OWN 35
-8
99.9%
Robby Rowell sacked by Maxs Tupai for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+8
100.0%
Robby Rowell pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 8 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 4:44
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Demari Simpkins at the Utah 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:50
Jason Shelley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q2 12:48
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 40 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q2 0:20
Jason Shelley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 1 yd for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
+1.7