Try the model
ORST

Oregon State 21 at California 17

CAL
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · California Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:51 · Daniel Rodriguez punt for 41 yds, downed at the Cal 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 192Pregame prior+0.8Home team on offense−25.5Garbage-time factor−11.2Score differential−5.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:33: Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 4 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +10.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:41: Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +17.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 0:32: Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 33 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +22.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:41: B.J. Baylor run for 13 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +40.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:07: Tyjon Lindsey run for 7 yds to the Cal 48 — ORST win probability +16.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 10 of 11ORST made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00ORST 4th & 18 at ORST 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:20CAL 4th & 2 at ORST 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    76.2%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:17ORST 4th & 20 at ORST 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:53CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00CAL 4th & 13 at CAL 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:17ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:51CAL 4th & 20 at ORST 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−2.1
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:26CAL 4th & 14 at ORST 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−1.7
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−3.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00CAL 4th & 1 at ORST 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.8%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00CAL 4th & 17 at ORST 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−1.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    46.8%−0.6
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:39ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:33ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−4.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:01CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 43, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:30ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 2, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−6.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00ORST 4th & 10 at CAL 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:26CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.9
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:36ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−4.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:00ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−4.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:00CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:34ORST 4th & 1 at CAL 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    74.5%−7.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−5.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:51ORST 4th & 15 at CAL 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:57CAL 4th & 12 at CAL 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.4%
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.3%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:35ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:33ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:41CAL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:32CAL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:41ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-8
74.0%
Jake Luton sacked by Zeandae Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 18
+5
74.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 5 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 23
0
74.0%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 23
-5
74.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Jesiah Irish) to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 18
0
74.0%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 47 yds, downed at the Cal 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
73.7%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
73.7%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 10 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
73.8%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 5
50
+7
73.8%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
73.9%
Devon Modster pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
73.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-1
73.8%
Marcel Dancy run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 13:20
4TH & 2
OPP 35
-2
73.8%
Marcel Dancy run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
72.8%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 13
OWN 34
0
73.0%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+13
73.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 13 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
72.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-5
72.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+3
72.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 11
OWN 46
-9
72.9%
Jake Luton sacked by Evan Weaver for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 20
OWN 37
0
73.2%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.2%
Devon Modster pass complete to Trevon Clark for 8 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-1
72.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
72.1%
Devon Modster run for no gain to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+9
71.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 44 yds , Jesiah Irish returns for 9 yds to the OrgSt 41 CALIFORNIA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5TD
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:3029% → 36%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
71.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 7 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+4
70.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
70.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+7
70.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 7 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
70.8%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
70.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+13
70.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 13 yds to the Cal 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
70.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
70.5%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+9
70.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 9 yds to the Cal 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
70.5%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
63.8%
Artavis Pierce 7 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Everett Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:3566% → 64%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.5%
Marcel Dancy run for no gain to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.5%
Devon Modster pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
64.9%
Devon Modster run for 12 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
66.1%
Devon Modster sacked by Doug Taumoelau for a loss of 7 yards to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+4
65.1%
Marcel Dancy run for 4 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 38
0
64.9%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Marcel DancySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
64.4%
Steven Coutts punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jesiah Irish at the OrgSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
63.3%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Artavis PierceSimilar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
63.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
64.1%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+11
64.5%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 43 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 11 yds to the Cal 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8MISSED FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:2964% → 61%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
63.9%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Trevon Clark, broken up by Isaiah DunnSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+22
63.8%
Devon Modster pass complete to Ricky Walker III for 22 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
65.3%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
65.4%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Ricky Walker IIISimilar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+26
65.1%
Devon Modster run for 26 yds to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
66.0%
Devon Modster pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-10
66.0%
Devon Modster sacked by Riley Sharp for a loss of 10 yards to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 20
OPP 22
0
64.1%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Christopher Brown Jr.Similar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 20
OPP 22
+39
60.7%
Greg Thomas 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 5:1839% → 57%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
61.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+6
60.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
60.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 21 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
59.3%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
59.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 9 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+6
59.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 6 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-8
59.1%
Jake Luton sacked by Evan Weaver for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 18
OPP 39
+7
59.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+12
55.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 12 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
54.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the Cal 19 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Noah Togiai) to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+10
54.7%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 10 yds to the Cal 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+16
53.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 16 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q2 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
43.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 4 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10FG
18 plays · 46 yds · 4:0045% → 45%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
44.9%
Marcel Dancy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
44.6%
Devon Modster pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+15
44.3%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jake Tonges for 15 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
46.7%
Marcel Dancy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 40Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+16
45.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
47.1%
Devon Modster pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
47.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+11
46.6%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jake Tonges for 11 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
47.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
47.6%
Modster, Devon pass incomplete to Clark, Trevon, PENALTY OSU holding (Dunn,Isaiah) 10 yards to the OSU23, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
47.7%
Devon Modster run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-5
43.5%
Devon Modster sacked by Omar Speights for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 13
OPP 26
-1
37.7%
Devon Modster sacked by Riley Sharp for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+44
44.9%
Greg Thomas 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -12 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
44.1%
Pierce,Artavis rush for no gain to the OSU25, PENALTY OSU holding (Kipper,Brandon) 10 yards to the OSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-2
44.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
13 plays · 36 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
45.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 8 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
46.5%
Devon Modster pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 9 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
46.9%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 6 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
47.7%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+3
46.8%
Devon Modster run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
46.2%
Devon Modster run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
48.1%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
47.8%
Devon Modster run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
49.5%
Devon Modster sacked by Hamilcar Rashed Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 37
-2
47.3%
Devon Modster sacked by TEAM for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 39
0
46.1%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 17
OPP 39
0
44.3%
Steven Coutts punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jesiah Irish at the OrgSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
40.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 4
OWN 15
-5
39.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Noah Togiai) to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+5
40.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 4
OWN 15
0
40.6%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Kolby TaylorSimilar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 4
OWN 15
+54
41.4%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 42 yds CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Ricky Walker III) to the Cal 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 3:2638% → 59%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
38.0%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Christopher Brown Jr.Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
37.7%
Devon Modster run for 6 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+5
37.6%
Modster, Devon pass incomplete to Duncan, Jordan (Dunn,Isaiah), PENALTY OSU pass interference (Dunn,Isaiah) 5 yards to the CAL42, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
39.2%
Marcel Dancy run for 2 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
39.3%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+37
37.9%
Devon Modster run for 37 yds to the OrgSt 19 Devon Modster fumbled, forced by David Morris, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
42.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-3
42.2%
Devon Modster sacked by Riley Sharp for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+15
40.4%
Modster, Devon pass incomplete to Tonges, Jake (Moore,Jalen), PENALTY OSU pass interference (Moore,Jalen) 15 yards to the OSU2, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
42.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (1 Yards) to the OrgSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.3%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0050% → 47%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
49.6%
Jake Luton sacked by Cameron Goode and Zeandae Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 17
OWN 27
0
51.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Kolby TaylorSimilar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 17
OWN 27
+5
52.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 5 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q3 5:33
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
53.4%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0050% → 51%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
50.0%
Brown Jr., Chri rush for no gain to the CAL35 (Sharp,Riley), PENALTY OSU holding off-setting, PENALTY CAL holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
50.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Cal 35Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
50.5%
Devon Modster pass complete to Ricky Walker III for 8 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
52.9%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Christopher Brown Jr., broken up by Riley SharpSimilar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+6
50.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 55 yds , Jesiah Irish returns for 6 yds to the OrgSt 2 Jesiah Irish fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Jesiah IrishSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0055% → 52%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
45.2%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
45.6%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 10
OWN 2
0
47.0%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 10
OWN 2
+3
48.4%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 51 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 1:0552% → 74%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
50
+1
51.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+16
51.7%
Devon Modster pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 16 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
74.1%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 33 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:3231% → 31%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
66.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
67.6%
Champ Flemings run for 24 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
64.2%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
64.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
66.3%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah Hodgins, broken up by Ashtyn DavisSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
69.0%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
71.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cal 8Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+1
71.7%
Devon Modster run for 1 yd to the Cal 9Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+4
70.2%
Devon Modster run for 4 yds to the Cal 13 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 4
OWN 13
0
69.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 47 yds , Jesiah Irish returns for no gain to the OrgSt 40 Jesiah Irish fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Jesiah IrishSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 0:3633% → 28%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
67.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Artavis PierceSimilar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-18
68.3%
Jake Luton sacked by Cameron Goode for a loss of 18 yards to the OrgSt 22 OREGON ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Jake Luton) to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 28
OWN 22
+13
72.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q4 11:36
4TH & 15
OWN 35
+10
72.5%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 35 , Nikko Remigio returns for 10 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
67.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Artavis PierceSimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-18
68.1%
Jake Luton sacked by Cameron Goode for a loss of 18 yards to the OrgSt 22 OREGON ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Jake Luton) to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 28
OWN 22
+13
71.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 15
OWN 35
+10
72.3%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 35 , Nikko Remigio returns for 10 yds to the Cal 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
73.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
74.9%
Devon Modster run for 1 yd to the Cal 39Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
73.0%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
71.2%
Steven Coutts punt for 41 yds , Kolby Taylor returns for no gain to the OrgSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:5231% → 79%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
69.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+11
69.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 11 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
68.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 14 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
64.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+2
63.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+6
64.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
63.7%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
63.7%
Jake Luton pass incomplete, broken up by Camryn BynumSimilar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+20
66.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 20 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
61.5%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the Cal 19Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+6
61.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 6 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+13
20.8%
B.J. Baylor run for 13 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:0034% → 38%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
34.3%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 17 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
38.6%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
38.0%
Spencer Brasch pass intercepted Jaydon Grant return for 2 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25PUNT
12 plays · 6 yds · 2:1679% → 87%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
21.3%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 7 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
20.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
20.2%
B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the Cal 46Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
15.8%
Jake Luton run for 2 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
12.9%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+1
9.5%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the Cal 46Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+2
9.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 10
OPP 44
-5
11.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, delay of game (Jake Luton) to the Cal 49Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
12.8%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 41 yds, downed at the Cal 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
16.9%
Spencer Brasch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+15
16.4%
Brasch, Spencer pass incomplete to Duncan, Jordan (Wright,Nahshon), PENALTY OSU pass interference (Wright,Nahshon) 15 yards to the CAL23, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-9
18.1%
Spencer Brasch sacked by Hamilcar Rashed Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 14Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 19
OWN 14
0
17.3%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Jordan Duncan, broken up by Jaydon GrantSimilar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 19
OWN 14
+7
16.6%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 7 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 12
OWN 21
-10
15.9%
Spencer Brasch sacked by Hamilcar Rashed Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:41
B.J. Baylor run for 13 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)
-40.7
TD · Q3 0:32
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 33 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)
+22.4
TD · Q3 5:41
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)
+17.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com