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CAL

California 7 at Oregon 17

ORE
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:05 · Steven Coutts punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior+15.2Home team on offense+3.9Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 7:32: Camden Lewis 28 yd FG GOOD — ORE win probability +4.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:30: Travis Dye run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 31 — ORE win probability +5.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 1:38: Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +16.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:20: CALIFORNIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Cal 49 for a 1ST down — ORE win probability +6.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:14: Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +11.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 13:02CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:26ORE 4th & 1 at CAL 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    83.3%−0.8
    87% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−3.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:34CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 17, up 7
    Close callPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:17CAL 4th & 2 at ORE 15, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.4%−0.4
    83% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:26ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 29, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:45CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:15ORE 4th & 8 at CAL 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−4.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00CAL 4th & 17 at ORE 42, up 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.5%−1.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−1.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    33.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:16ORE 4th & 9 at ORE 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−2.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:08CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:32ORE 4th & 7 at CAL 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−11.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:01CAL 4th & 18 at CAL 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−5.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:43ORE 4th & 11 at CAL 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−2.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:39CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:05CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−2.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:44ORE 4th & 2 at CAL 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    77.4%−1.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−10.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:59CAL 4th & 10 at ORE 29, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.9%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−1.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:54ORE 4th & 12 at ORE 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:34CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:58CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 1:38ORE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:14ORE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:436% → 7%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.9%
Devon Modster pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
93.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 6 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
93.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 33Similar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
93.5%
Steven Coutts punt for 46 yds, downed at the Oregn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2INT
12 plays · 54 yds · 3:3893% → 93%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
93.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 11 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
93.3%
CJ Verdell run for 11 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
93.3%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 3
50
+2
93.3%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+4
93.2%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
93.1%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
93.1%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cal 39Similar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+19
92.8%
Travis Dye run for 19 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+4
92.9%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
92.8%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 4
OPP 10
-15
92.8%
OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 19
OPP 25
+31
92.7%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted Ashtyn Davis return for 31 yds to the Cal 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:058% → 10%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.4%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jeremiah HawkinsSimilar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
92.4%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (Matthew Cindric) to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+5
92.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+36
92.2%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 36 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
91.8%
OREGON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 5
OPP 22
0
91.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
91.5%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+22
90.5%
Devon Modster pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 22 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4FUMBLE
16 plays · 62 yds · 6:1691% → 87%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
90.8%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+10
90.6%
CJ Verdell run for 10 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
90.6%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
90.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 1
50
+3
90.3%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
90.1%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+10
89.9%
Travis Dye run for 10 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
89.9%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 33Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+7
89.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 7 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+6
88.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 6 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
88.7%
Justin Herbert run for 7 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+1
88.4%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Cal 12Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+1
88.0%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Cal 11Similar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
87.4%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Cal 9 Travis Dye fumbled, recovered by Cal Kuony DengSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2713% → 14%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
86.8%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+1
86.4%
DeShawn Collins run for 1 yd to the Cal 15Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+2
86.3%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 2 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 2
OWN 17
+43
86.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 48 yds, downed at the OREGON 35 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:1186% → 86%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
86.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 19 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
86.3%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Cal 38 Travis Dye fumbled, forced by Trey Turner III, recovered by CalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:3316% → 17%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
84.3%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jeremiah HawkinsSimilar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
84.3%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+24
84.5%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jake Tonges for 24 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
83.1%
Devon Modster pass complete to Trevon Clark for 15 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
83.3%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
83.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+8
82.6%
Devon Modster run for 8 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
82.8%
Greg Thomas 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3483% → 81%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
83.0%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 6 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-6
82.7%
Justin Herbert sacked by Zeandae Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
81.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 9 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
81.0%
Blake Maimone punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2519% → 21%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
80.6%
Devon Modster run for 3 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+3
78.8%
DeShawn Collins run for 3 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
78.6%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q2 6:45
4TH & 4
OWN 32
+53
79.0%
Steven Coutts punt for 43 yds, downed at the OREGON 25 OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Oregn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 2:1779% → 78%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
78.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 11 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
79.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
78.6%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 4 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+20
78.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
50
+21
79.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 21 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
80.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Brenden SchoolerSimilar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
79.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
78.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+45
77.6%
Camden Lewis 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11INT
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:0025% → 30%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
75.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 8 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+3
73.3%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
71.6%
Devon Modster run for 8 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+3
70.5%
DeShawn Collins run for 3 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
69.8%
Devon Modster pass complete to Trevon Clark for 16 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
67.3%
DeShawn Collins run for no gain to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
66.7%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-7
66.5%
Devon Modster sacked by Kayvon Thibodeaux for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 42 Devon Modster fumbled, forced by Kayvon Thibodeaux, recovered by CalSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 17
OPP 42
+40
69.8%
Devon Modster pass intercepted Jevon Holland return for 40 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:2972% → 70%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
72.0%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 32Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
71.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q3 14:23
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
70.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q3 14:16
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
69.5%
Blake Maimone punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5231% → 31%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.9%
Devon Modster pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
67.7%
Devon Modster pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for no gain to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
68.3%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
69.5%
Steven Coutts punt for 53 yds, downed at the Oregn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14FG
13 plays · 72 yds · 5:2869% → 70%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
69.2%
Travis Dye run for 12 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
68.8%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+18
68.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 18 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
70.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Travis DyeSimilar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
69.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 5 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+10
69.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 10 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
70.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 11 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
69.7%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 4 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+6
69.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 6 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
68.4%
Jaylon Redd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 14Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+4
67.7%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 4 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
65.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob BreelandSimilar
Q3 7:32
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+28
70.2%
Camden Lewis 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0833% → 32%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
66.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the Cal 12Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 23
OWN 12
0
66.8%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+5
67.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
68.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 38 yds, downed at the Oregn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:0269% → 63%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
69.4%
Travis Dye run for 12 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
70.4%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
68.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob BreelandSimilar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 11
OPP 44
0
65.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
63.2%
Blake Maimone punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5139% → 40%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
61.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+4
60.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 1
OWN 19
-3
59.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 16Similar
Q3 2:39
4TH & 4
OWN 16
+24
60.4%
Steven Coutts punt for 38 yds , Jevon Holland returns for 24 yds to the Cal 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:5266% → 82%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
66.3%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+30
65.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 30 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.1%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2922% → 20%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
78.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (McKade Mettauer) to the Cal 15Similar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
78.4%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+1
78.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cal 16Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+5
79.3%
Devon Modster pass complete to Trevon Clark for 5 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
79.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:1779% → 81%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
79.4%
Justin Herbert run for 5 yds to the Oregn 46 Justin Herbert fumbled, forced by Luc Bequette, recovered by Oregn Dallas WarmackSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+18
79.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 18 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
82.8%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Travis DyeSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
82.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 8 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 2
OPP 28
0
82.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 2
OPP 28
0
80.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21INT
10 plays · 16 yds · 4:1723% → 27%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
77.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (McKade Mettauer) to the Cal 19Similar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+10
77.3%
Devon Modster run for 10 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
76.8%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Gus Cumberlander) to the Cal 34Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-5
74.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (McKade Mettauer) to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+11
76.4%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 11 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
74.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 39Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+7
74.6%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 7 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+9
71.0%
Devon Modster run for 9 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
69.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Tonges) to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+21
73.0%
Devon Modster pass intercepted Troy Dye return for 3 yds to the Oregn 48 OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (18 Yards) to the Oregn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:0679% → 93%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
79.3%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
81.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+26
78.8%
Justin Herbert run for 26 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
81.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (13 Yards) to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
81.7%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 11 yds to the Cal 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
81.6%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the Cal 1Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23MISSED FG
15 plays · 53 yds · 4:028% → 6%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
92.5%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
92.5%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+21
93.2%
Devon Modster run for 21 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
91.9%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-9
92.1%
Devon Modster sacked by Isaac Slade-Matautia for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 19
OWN 30
+20
93.8%
Devon Modster pass complete to Trevon Clark for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
50
0
91.3%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
50
+6
91.2%
Devon Modster pass complete to Trevon Clark for 6 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+15
91.6%
OREGON Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
90.2%
Devon Modster pass complete to Trevon Clark for 7 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 3
OPP 22
-7
90.2%
Devon Modster sacked by Popo Aumavae for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 29Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+5
91.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 5
OPP 24
-5
94.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 29Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
94.2%
Greg Thomas 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 1:0094% → 96%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
94.2%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 4 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
95.5%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 2 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-15
95.8%
OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (Dallas Warmack) to the Oregn 20Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 19
OWN 20
+7
95.5%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 12
OWN 27
+3
95.7%
Blake Maimone punt for 43 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 3 yds to the Cal 30 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Cal 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:113% → 3%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-6
97.0%
Devon Modster sacked by Kayvon Thibodeaux for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 17Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 16
OWN 17
0
97.2%
Devon Modster pass complete to Nikko Remigio for no gain to the Cal 17Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 16
OWN 17
+12
97.4%
Devon Modster pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 12 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
97.4%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:38
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+16.8
TD · Q4 7:14
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+11.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:20
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Cal 49 for a 1ST down
+6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com