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UNT

North Texas 17 at California 23

CAL
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:52 · Alvin Kenworthy punt for 37 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 32 yds to the NoTex 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Pregame prior+25.7Home team on offense+2.9Score differential+1.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Time remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:31: Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 36 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +3.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:36: Ethan Mooney 24 yd FG GOOD — UNT win probability +4.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:05: Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 68 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +7.3 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:44: Greg Thomas 34 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +5.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:59: Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 18 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +13.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 11UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 8:45CAL 4th & 3 at UNT 15, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.4%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:45UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:58CAL 4th & 11 at UNT 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:52UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 28, down 13
    Close callPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UNT 4th & 19 at CAL 36, down 20
    Close callPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:55CAL 4th & 1 at midfield, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.3%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:55CAL 4th & 4 at UNT 41, up 20
    Close callPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.6%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:36UNT 4th & 6 at CAL 7, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:23CAL 4th & 4 at UNT 36, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.2%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%
    42% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:05CAL 4th & 4 at UNT 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    82.9%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:44CAL 4th & 4 at UNT 17, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.7%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−5.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:54CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 46, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:04UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 31, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.3%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:54UNT 4th & 12 at UNT 45, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:13CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 21, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−1.0
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:38UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 46, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:13CAL 4th & 8 at UNT 40, up 13
    Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:59UNT 4th & 7 at CAL 18, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−2.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:43CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:36UNT 4th & 15 at UNT 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.5%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:25CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:31CAL Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:05UNT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:59UNT Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.1 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3580% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.3%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
80.3%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+34
80.3%
Chase Garbers run for 19 yds to the CALIFORNIA 49 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
80.3%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Remigio, Nikko, PENALTY UNT pass interference (MUHAMMAD, K.) 15 yards to the UNT19, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
80.3%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+1
80.3%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd to the NoTex 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+14
80.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 14 yds to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for no gain to the NoTex 20Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
80.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 6 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-4
80.2%
Mason Fine sacked by Jaylinn Hawkins for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 22 Mason Fine fumbled, recovered by Cal Brett Johnson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2381% → 80%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
80.6%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Polk, Makai, PENALTY CAL ineligible downfield on pass (Curhan, Jake) 5 yards to the UNT27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+14
80.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 14 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 1
OPP 13
0
80.6%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 1
OPP 13
-2
80.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 15Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
80.3%
Greg Thomas 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
80.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 19Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+8
80.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 8 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
80.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
80.4%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:2680% → 83%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
80.3%
Chase Garbers run for 8 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+15
80.6%
Marcel Dancy run for no gain to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (LaDarius Hamilton) to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
80.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 17 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
80.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
80.7%
Marcel Dancy run for 3 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 7
OPP 23
-4
80.5%
Chase Garbers sacked by Mike Linehan for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 27Similar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+44
83.1%
Greg Thomas 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
81.9%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+2
81.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Tre Siggers for 2 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
81.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Tre SiggersSimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+32
82.1%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 37 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 32 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:0584% → 87%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
84.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 38Similar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+12
83.9%
Chase Garbers run for 12 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-10
84.0%
Brown Jr., Chri rush for loss of 4 yards to the UNT30 (ROBINSON, T.), PENALTY CAL holding (Mello, Brandon) 10 yards to the UNT36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 13
OPP 36
0
83.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+36
87.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 36 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 39 yds · 2:3112% → 11%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.6%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
87.4%
Tre Siggers run for 16 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
87.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 7 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+5
87.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 5 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
87.1%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+15
87.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (Camryn Bynum) to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
86.8%
SIGGERS, Tre rush for no gain to the CAL27, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UNT holding (HAIR-GRIFFIN, D) 10 yards to the CAL37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+1
87.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 36
0
88.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jyaire ShorterSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 36
-5
89.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 24
OPP 41
+5
89.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 5 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 19
OPP 36
0
89.1%
Mason Fine punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
17 plays · 51 yds · 5:0489% → 91%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
88.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cal 9Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+10
88.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 10 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
89.0%
Marcel Dancy run for 6 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
89.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Marcel DancySimilar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+6
88.8%
Chase Garbers run for 6 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
89.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
89.0%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+11
88.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 11 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
89.5%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
89.3%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 7 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
89.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 1
50
+3
91.0%
Nikko Remigio run for 3 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
91.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
91.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete, broken up by Taylor RobinsonSimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+1
91.3%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd to the NoTex 41Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+19
91.1%
Dario Longhetto punt for 20 yds , Nick Harvey returns for 19 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 5:169% → 14%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
91.3%
Mason Fine sacked by Cameron Goode for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 34Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+8
91.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Deion Hair-Griffin for 8 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+10
91.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 10 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
90.8%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
90.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jyaire ShorterSimilar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+8
90.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 8 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
90.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+4
90.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
90.3%
Mason Fine run for 7 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+7
90.3%
Tre Siggers run for 7 yds to the Cal 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
90.3%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
90.3%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
90.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
86.2%
Ethan Mooney 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:0390% → 90%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
90.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah HawkinsSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
90.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko Remigio, broken up by Makyle SandersSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+6
89.8%
Marcel Dancy run for 6 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 4
OPP 36
-5
89.8%
Chase Garbers sacked by KD Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
87.6%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5511% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.3%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
89.3%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+68
82.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 68 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 5:2183% → 89%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
83.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 22Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+11
82.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 11 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
82.8%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Remigio, Nikko (ROBINSON, T.), PENALTY UNT pass interference (ROBINSON, T.) 15 yards to the CAL48, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
84.1%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Gavin Reinwald, broken up by Taylor RobinsonSimilar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
83.9%
Chase Garbers run for 13 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
84.2%
Marcel Dancy run for 3 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
84.2%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
83.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Gavin Reinwald, broken up by Tyreke DavisSimilar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+10
82.8%
Chase Garbers run for 10 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
84.3%
Marcel Dancy run for 4 yds to the NoTex 19Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+3
84.3%
Marcel Dancy run for 3 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 3
OPP 16
-1
83.7%
Chase Garbers sacked by Dion Novil for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 17Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+34
88.8%
Greg Thomas 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15INT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 26Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
88.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Deion Hair-GriffinSimilar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+23
88.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Deion Hair-Griffin for 23 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
86.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 5 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+7
86.6%
Tre Siggers run for 7 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
86.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Deion Hair-Griffin, broken up by Camryn BynumSimilar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-1
86.7%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+5
87.2%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Traveon Beck return for 5 yds to the Cal 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
91.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+1
90.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 1 yd to the Cal 42Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+9
90.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 9 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-5
90.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 6
OWN 46
+2
90.0%
Dario Longhetto punt for 49 yds , Jaelon Darden returns for 2 yds to the NoTex 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17PUNT
13 plays · 38 yds · 4:1011% → 7%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
89.5%
Tre Siggers run for 15 yds to the NoTex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
89.3%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 21Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+7
89.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 7 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+3
88.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+2
89.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
88.6%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
88.7%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+9
88.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 9 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
87.8%
Mason Fine run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
50
0
89.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Deion Hair-GriffinSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 7
50
-5
91.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
92.9%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
94.3%
Alex Netherda run for 3 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-2
94.4%
Chase Garbers sacked by Joe Ozougwu for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 16Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+5
94.0%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+2
93.7%
Dario Longhetto punt for 51 yds , Jaelon Darden returns for 2 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
93.4%
Jaelon Darden run for 8 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+7
93.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 7 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
93.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jyaire Shorter, broken up by Chigozie AnusiemSimilar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
93.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 46Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
93.5%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:38
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
93.9%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
13 plays · 45 yds · 4:3195% → 97%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
95.1%
Marcel Dancy run for 3 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
95.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete, broken up by Dion NovilSimilar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+12
95.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 12 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
95.3%
Garbers, Chase rush for 9 yards to the CAL39 (WOOD, Kevin), PENALTY CAL holding (Saffell, Michae) 10 yards to the CAL20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+2
95.0%
Marcel Dancy run for 2 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 18
OWN 22
-6
95.0%
Chase Garbers sacked by LaDarius Hamilton for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 16Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 24
OWN 16
+27
94.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 27 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
95.6%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Clark, Trevon (JOHNSON, Cam), PENALTY UNT pass interference (JOHNSON, Cam) 15 yards to the UNT42, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
95.6%
Alex Netherda run for 4 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
95.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Gavin ReinwaldSimilar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 6
OPP 38
-2
95.5%
Marcel Dancy run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 40Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
96.8%
Chase Garbers punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:074% → 18%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
96.1%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 18Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+5
96.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Deion Hair-Griffin for 5 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
96.3%
FINE, Mason pass incomplete to OGUNMAKIN, A. (Turner, Trey II), PENALTY CAL pass interference (Turner, Trey II) 15 yards to the UNT38, 1ST DOWN UNT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+25
95.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 25 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
95.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+16
95.6%
Tre Siggers run for 16 yds to the Cal 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
94.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jyaire Shorter, broken up by Braxten CroteauSimilar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
95.0%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+3
95.6%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+18
82.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 18 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:1692% → 93%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.2%
Marcel Dancy run for no gain to the Cal 20Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
93.4%
Chase Garbers sacked by Tyreke Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 18Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+7
93.5%
Chase Garbers run for 7 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
92.7%
Dario Longhetto punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaelon Darden at the NoTex 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:1511% → 8%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
89.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Manase Mose) to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
90.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Deion Hair-Griffin, broken up by Ashtyn DavisSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
90.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for no gain to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
91.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Deion Hair-GriffinSimilar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
91.9%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 12
OPP 32
-2
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 14
OPP 34
-2
95.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:59
Mason Fine pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 18 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q3 14:05
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 68 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
-7.3
FG · Q3 8:44
Greg Thomas 34 yd FG GOOD
+5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com