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UCD

UC Davis 13 at California 27

CAL
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadUCD aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreUCD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:03 · Dario Longhetto punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCDav 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior+32.1Home team on offense−1.8Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 0:40: Max O'Rourke 40 yd FG GOOD — UCD win probability +3.2 pts (now 23%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:13: Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 37 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +5.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FG · Q3 11:24: Max O'Rourke 32 yd FG GOOD — UCD win probability +5.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:01: Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +11.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:52: Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 26 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +6.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 8 of 8UCD made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 13:44CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:14UCD 4th & 1 at UCD 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:55UCD 4th & 16 at CAL 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:03CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:44UCD 4th & 1 at CAL 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−0.8
    30% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:40UCD 4th & 12 at CAL 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:57UCD 4th & 6 at CAL 44, up 10
    Close callPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    26.1%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:06UCD 4th & 4 at UCD 26, up 3
    Close callPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:16CAL 4th & 7 at UCD 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:16UCD 4th & 5 at UCD 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:43CAL 4th & 8 at UCD 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:24UCD 4th & 10 at CAL 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−7.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:24CAL 4th & 17 at CAL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−3.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:51UCD 4th & 9 at UCD 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−2.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:54UCD 4th & 19 at UCD 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−3.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:40UCD 4th & 7 at CAL 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:48CAL 4th & 14 at UCD 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−2.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:48UCD 4th & 10 at UCD 47, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:39CAL 4th & 1 at UCD 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%−1.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−1.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:38CAL 4th & 1 at UCD 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UCD made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:44UCD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:13CAL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:01CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:52CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCDDrive 2TD
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:1014% → 14%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
86.4%
UC DAVIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+8
86.4%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for 8 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+6
86.4%
Jake Maier pass complete to Carson Crawford for 6 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+8
86.4%
Carson Crawford pass complete to Matthew Hyman for 8 yds to the Cal 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
86.4%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (Tevin Paul) to the Cal 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.8%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for 2 yds for a TD, (Max O'Rourke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for no gain to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
85.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete, broken up by Connor AireySimilar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+5
85.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 5 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+9
85.9%
Dario Longhetto punt for 39 yds , Isaiah Thomas returns for 9 yds to the UCDav 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
85.1%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Jr. Ulonzo GilliamSimilar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
85.1%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for 5 yds to the UCDav 35Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+4
85.1%
Jake Maier pass complete to Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam for 4 yds to the UCDav 39Similar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
85.1%
Daniel Whelan punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
84.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 13 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
84.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
84.6%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
84.6%
Chase Garbers pass intercepted Devon King return for no gain to the UCDav 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
83.8%
Jake Maier pass complete to Tehran Thomas for 16 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
83.7%
Jake Maier pass complete to Wesley Preece for 8 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+4
83.6%
Tehran Thomas run for 4 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
83.7%
CRAWFORD, C. rush for 3 yards to the CAL34 (Deng, Kuony), PENALTY UCD holding (RICHARDSON, K.) 10 yards to the CAL47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 20
OPP 47
-5
83.7%
Jake Maier sacked by Luc Bequette for a loss of 5 yards to the UCDav 48Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 25
OWN 48
+2
83.9%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 23
50
+7
83.9%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for 7 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 16
OPP 43
0
84.0%
Daniel Whelan punt for 31 yds, downed at the Cal 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
81.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cal 13Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+5
81.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
81.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete, broken up by Roland OcanseySimilar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
81.3%
Dario Longhetto punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCDav 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 8FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 4:0420% → 23%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
80.5%
Jake Maier pass complete to Carson Crawford for a loss of 3 yards to the UCDav 32Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+12
80.8%
Jake Maier pass complete to Carson Crawford for 12 yds to the UCDav 44Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
80.3%
Jake Maier pass complete to Carson Crawford for 5 yds to the UCDav 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
80.1%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for 5 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
80.1%
Jake Maier pass complete to Carson Crawford for 4 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
80.1%
Jake Maier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+4
80.5%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for 4 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
80.1%
Jake Maier pass complete to Khris Vaughn for 17 yds to the Cal 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
80.0%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Matthew HymanSimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
80.0%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Carson CrawfordSimilar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 10
OPP 21
-2
80.2%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 23Similar
Q1 0:40
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
77.0%
Max O'Rourke 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9FUMBLE
7 plays · 47 yds · 0:3476% → 76%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
76.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+26
76.3%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 26 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
76.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 13 yds to the UCDav 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
76.9%
Marcel Dancy run for 4 yds to the Cal 40 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 16
50
0
76.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to McCallan CastlesSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
50
+11
76.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 11 yds Jordan Duncan fumbled, forced by Nas Anesi, recovered by UCDav Bryce RodgersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
74.9%
Jake Maier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
75.0%
THOMAS, Tehran rush for 5 yards to the UCD44 (Deng, Kuony), PENALTY UCD illegal shift 5 yards to the UCD34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+3
75.7%
Tehran Thomas run for 3 yds to the UCDav 37Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+15
75.8%
Jake Maier pass complete to Jared Harrell for 15 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
74.8%
Jake Maier pass complete to Khris Vaughn for 4 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
74.8%
Jake Maier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
75.0%
Jake Maier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:57
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
75.4%
Daniel Whelan punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 1:5373% → 79%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
72.7%
Chase Garbers run for 13 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
72.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
73.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete, broken up by Jordan FranklinSimilar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+30
72.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 30 yds to the UCDav 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
74.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCDav 37Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+37
79.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 37 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
77.2%
Jake Maier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
77.2%
Carson Crawford run for 6 yds to the UCDav 26Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
77.5%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam, broken up by Tevin PaulSimilar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+7
78.1%
Daniel Whelan punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 39 , Nikko Remigio returns for 7 yds to the Cal 33 UC DAVIS Penalty, illegal formation (Nas Anesi) to the Cal 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13FG
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:5278% → 79%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+31
77.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 31 yds to the UCDav 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
79.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
79.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCDav 27Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
78.4%
Chase Garbers run for no gain to the UCDav 27Similar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+44
79.0%
Greg Thomas 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.5%
Tehran Thomas run for no gain to the UCDav 25Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
76.6%
UC DAVIS Penalty, false start (Wesley Preece) to the UCDav 20Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
76.8%
Jake Maier pass complete to Tehran Thomas for 3 yds to the UCDav 23Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+16
77.3%
Jake Maier pass complete to Jared Harrell for 16 yds to the UCDav 39 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
75.5%
Jake Maier pass complete to Wesley Preece for 1 yd to the UCDav 40Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+7
75.7%
Tehran Thomas run for 7 yds to the UCDav 47Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-3
75.2%
Tehran Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCDav 44Similar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
76.7%
Daniel Whelan punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 3:2577% → 79%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
77.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+9
77.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hawkins for 9 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
77.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+8
77.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 8 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+6
77.9%
Chase Garbers run for 6 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
78.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 13 yds to the UCDav 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
79.0%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the UCDav 40Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+8
79.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 8 yds to the UCDav 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
79.8%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
79.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCDav 30Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
78.6%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+47
79.3%
Greg Thomas 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 16END OF HALF
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
79.7%
MAIER, Jake pass complete to PREECE, Wes for 12 yards to the UCD37 (Deng, Kuony;Davis, Ashtyn), PENALTY UCD ineligible downfield on pass (PETTEK, Connor) 5 yards to the UCD20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
79.9%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Jared HarrellSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
80.1%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for 5 yds to the UCDav 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 17FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:3623% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
77.5%
Jake Maier pass complete to Justin Kraft for 27 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
75.1%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for 5 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
74.9%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for 3 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+8
75.1%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for 8 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
74.3%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for 5 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+12
74.1%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for 12 yds to the Cal 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
74.1%
Justin Kraft run for no gain to the Cal 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
74.1%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for no gain to the Cal 15Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
75.4%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Khris Vaughn, broken up by Camryn BynumSimilar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
69.7%
Max O'Rourke 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
73.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
74.3%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
73.4%
Jeremiah Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+4
72.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 4 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-9
72.8%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd to the Cal 38 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Valentino Daltoso) to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 17
OWN 28
0
71.5%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 17
OWN 28
+22
71.0%
Dario Longhetto punt for 54 yds , Jaylin White returns for 22 yds to the UCDav 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0033% → 30%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
67.1%
Jake Maier pass complete to Carson Crawford for 4 yds to the UCDav 44Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-9
66.3%
Jake Maier sacked by Cameron Goode for a loss of 9 yards to the UCDav 35Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+6
70.5%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for 6 yds to the UCDav 41Similar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+28
70.3%
Daniel Whelan punt for 54 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 28 yds to the Cal 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:4971% → 88%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
71.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 11 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
73.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 43Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+2
72.2%
Marcel Dancy run for 2 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+7
71.1%
Chase Garbers run for 7 yds to the UCDav 48Similar
Q3 6:50
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+15
72.0%
UC DAVIS Penalty, personal foul (Eric Flowers) to the UCDav 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
75.2%
Marcel Dancy run for 5 yds to the UCDav 28Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+21
75.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 21 yds to the UCDav 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
75.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCDav 5Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
87.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
82.8%
Jake Maier run for a loss of 10 yards to the UCDav 15 Jake Maier fumbled,Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+1
83.2%
Tehran Thomas run for 1 yd to the UCDav 16Similar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+7
84.5%
Daniel Whelan punt for 58 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 7 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
84.0%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Justin Kraft, broken up by Chigozie AnusiemSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:3987% → 96%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
86.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 14 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
88.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCDav 49Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
88.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to McCallan CastlesSimilar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+12
87.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 12 yds to the UCDav 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
88.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 8 yds to the UCDav 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+1
90.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCDav 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+2
89.8%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCDav 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
96.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 26 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
94.3%
Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam run for 14 yds to the UCDav 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
94.0%
Jake Maier pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · -13 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
96.0%
Ricky Walker III run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCDav 38Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+4
95.8%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCDav 34Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+6
95.8%
Chase Garbers run for a loss of 12 yards to the Cal 48 Chase Garbers fumbled, forced by Nick Eaton, recovered by UCDav Nas Anesi , return for 6 yds to the Cal 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:036% → 5%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
94.5%
Jake Maier pass complete to Justin Kraft for 11 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
94.5%
Jake Maier pass complete to Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam for 3 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
93.8%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Carson Crawford, broken up by Traveon BeckSimilar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
94.5%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Jr. Ulonzo Gilliam, broken up by Kuony DengSimilar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
94.7%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Wesley Preece, broken up by Jaylinn HawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26MISSED FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:5296% → 97%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
96.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 4 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+26
96.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 26 yds to the UCDav 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
96.5%
Marcel Dancy run for 13 yds to the UCDav 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
96.6%
Dancy, Marcel rush for 2 yards to the UCD21 (OCANSEY, Roland), PENALTY CAL holding (Curhan, Jake) 10 yards to the UCD33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+4
96.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCDav 29Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 16
OPP 29
+2
96.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCDav 27Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 14
OPP 27
0
96.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+44
96.6%
Greg Thomas 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
96.0%
Jake Maier pass complete to Justin Kraft for 20 yds to the UCDav 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
95.7%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Jared HarrellSimilar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
95.7%
Troy Spencer run for no gain to the UCDav 47Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
95.9%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Jared Harrell, broken up by Elijah HicksSimilar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
96.2%
Daniel Whelan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 28DOWNS
13 plays · 52 yds · 3:4897% → 99%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
97.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 11 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
97.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+19
97.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 19 yds to the UCDav 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
98.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCDav 47Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+8
98.1%
Marcel Dancy run for 8 yds to the UCDav 39Similar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
98.1%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the UCDav 39Similar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+1
97.8%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCDav 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
98.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the UCDav 45 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Cal Chase GarbersSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+2
98.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCDav 43Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+14
98.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 14 yds to the UCDav 29Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
98.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the UCDav 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:01
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)
+11.4
TD · Q4 13:52
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 26 yds for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)
+6.1
FG · Q3 11:24
Max O'Rourke 32 yd FG GOOD
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com