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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreUTAH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Kyle Ostendorp punt for 53 yds , Demari Simpkins returns for 17 yds to the Utah 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:39: Brant Kuithe run for 3 yds for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK) — ARIZ win probability +1.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:50: Zack Moss run for 41 yds for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +3.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 11:41: Jaylen Dixon run for 12 yds to the ARIZONA 45 UTAH Penalty, Offensive holding (Samson Nacua) to the Utah 45 — UTAH win probability +2.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:08: Brant Kuithe run for 6 yds for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 3:52: Zack Moss run for 6 yds to the Utah 44 — UTAH win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 10UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 15:00ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snapGo for it7.9%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.0%average punt
- Q1 7:39ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 34, down 7Close callPunted · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00ARIZ 4th & 14 at UTAH 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snapGo for it9.7%−0.319% to convertField goal9.8%−0.325% to makePuntTheir call10.1%average punt
- Q2 12:22UTAH 4th & 1 at ARIZ 23, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.4%71% to convertField goal89.7%−0.770% to makePunt87.6%−2.7average punt
- Q2 5:52ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snapGo for it10.3%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.3%average punt
- Q2 0:01UTAH 4th & 1 at ARIZ 1, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.2%59% to convertField goal90.5%−1.794% to makePunt87.0%−5.2average punt
- Q3 12:50ARIZ 4th & 9 at UTAH 43, down 21Close callWent for it · 6.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.6%−<0.132% to convertField goal6.3%−0.328% to makePunt6.6%average punt
- Q3 8:02ARIZ 4th & 4 at UTAH 39, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%48% to convertField goal1.5%−0.136% to makePunt1.5%−0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 4, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q4 12:38ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 20, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 11:24UTAH 4th & 9 at ARIZ 46, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−<0.132% to convertField goal99.6%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q4 6:50ARIZ 4th & 2 at UTAH 46, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%57% to convertField goal0.1%−0.123% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:50ARIZ 4th & 7 at UTAH 7, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%28% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.191% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 7:39UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.7%97% to makeGo for two89.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:37UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.9%97% to makeGo for two89.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:50UTAH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.9%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:08UTAH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:47UTAH Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:50ARIZ Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARIZDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 0:006% → 6%
UTAHDrive 2TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5693% → 92%
Q1 13:35
2ND & 18
OWN 49
+9
6.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 9 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 9
OPP 42
-9
6.6%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Colin Schooler for a loss of 9 yards to the Utah 49Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 18
OWN 49
+15
6.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tony Fields II) to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 21
OPP 47
+29
6.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 29 yds to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:008% → 8%
UTAHDrive 4TD10 plays · 72 yds · 5:1292% → 93%
Q1 5:49
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+22
8.1%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 22 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
8.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 11 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
7.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 3 yds for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT11 plays · 30 yds · 0:308% → 8%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+20
8.3%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Boobie Curry for 20 yds to the Utah 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-5
8.5%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Bradlee Anae for a loss of 5 yards to the Utah 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
8.2%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Demari Simpkins at the Utah 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6DOWNS11 plays · 64 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
ARIZDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:009% → 9%
UTAHDrive 8DOWNS14 plays · 65 yds · 4:3791% → 92%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
8.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Derrick Vickers for 7 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+8
8.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 8 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
8.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 15 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
8.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 3 yds to the Ariz 7Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
7.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Solomon Enis for 6 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1091% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
8.7%
Zack Moss run for 7 yds to the Utah 32 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Utah 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
8.1%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 9 yds to the ARIZONA 44 UTAH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Utah 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+9
8.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 9 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
8.0%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Jaylen Dixon, broken up by Scottie Young Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10DOWNS7 plays · 32 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
5.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 21 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11TD9 plays · 57 yds · 3:3396% → 99%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
3.6%
Jaylen Dixon run for 12 yds to the ARIZONA 45 UTAH Penalty, Offensive holding (Samson Nacua) to the Utah 45Similar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+29
3.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 14 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (Myles Tapusoa) to the Ariz 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
3.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 4 yds to the Ariz 13Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-15
3.4%
Moss, Zack rush for 6 yards to the ARIZ7 (Pandy,A.), PENALTY UTAH personal foul 15 yards to the ARIZ28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 21
OPP 28
+27
3.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 27 yds to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12DOWNS11 plays · 39 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q3 8:02
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+8
2.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 8 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+15
2.2%
Tate,K. pass incomplete to Joiner,J., PENALTY UTAH roughing passer (Bernard,Francis) 15 yards to the UTAH45, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+2
2.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 2 yds to the Utah 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13INT6 plays · 39 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 3:52
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-10
0.7%
Moss, Zack rush for 27 yards to the ARIZ29 (Schooler,C.), PENALTY UTAH holding (Ford, Nick) 10 yards to the UTAH34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+18
0.8%
Jordan Wilmore run for 3 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
0.7%
Tyler Huntley pass intercepted Lorenzo Burns return for 3 yds to the Ariz 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:401% → 1%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 4
+39
0.8%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 53 yds , Demari Simpkins returns for 39 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15TD5 plays · 18 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q4 14:44
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+11
0.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 11 yds to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:38
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
0.2%
Matt Aragon punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Demari Simpkins at the Utah 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
0.3%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Derrick Vickers for 9 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD12 plays · 85 yds · 5:000% → 0%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
0.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 16 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+12
0.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 12 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 6
50
+4
0.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 4 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+31
0.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 31 yds to the Utah 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+4
0.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 4 yds to the Utah 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19END OF GAME5 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:50
Zack Moss run for 41 yds for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK)
-3.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 11:41
Jaylen Dixon run for 12 yds to the ARIZONA 45 UTAH Penalty, Offensive holding (Samson Nacua) to the Utah 45
-2.2
TD · Q3 8:08
Brant Kuithe run for 6 yds for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK)
-1.8