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ARIZ

Arizona 6 at Oregon 34

ORE
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:17 · Kyle Ostendorp punt for 32 yds, downed at the Ariz 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Pregame prior+25.9Home team on offense+14.6Score differential+4.6Garbage-time factor+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:09: Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 53 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +3.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:56: Lucas Havrisik 23 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +1.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:07: Timeout ARIZONA, clock 00:07 — ORE win probability +1.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Lucas Havrisik 42 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +2.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:32: Justin Herbert pass complete to Spencer Webb for 24 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ARIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 11:04ARIZ 4th & 4 at ORE 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:40ORE 4th & 12 at ORE 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:58ARIZ 4th & 15 at ARIZ 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:54ARIZ 4th & 16 at ARIZ 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:42ORE 4th & 2 at ARIZ 2, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:10ARIZ 4th & 13 at ARIZ 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:56ARIZ 4th & 5 at ORE 5, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:55ORE 4th & 13 at ORE 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:06ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 23, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:51ORE 4th & 5 at ARIZ 40, up 15
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:17ARIZ 4th & 17 at ARIZ 9, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:46ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 35, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:40ORE 4th & 10 at ARIZ 29, up 22
    Close callWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:16ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 48, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:34ARIZ 4th & 5 at ORE 13, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:19ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 26, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:28ARIZ 4th & 16 at ARIZ 47, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 14:28ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:57ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:09ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:32ORE Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:02ORE Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2796% → 96%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.1%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+73
96.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 73 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:194% → 4%
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
96.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Paiton Fears) to the Ariz 13Similar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+9
96.0%
Grant Gunnell run for 9 yds to the Ariz 22 Grant Gunnell fumbled, forced by Troy Dye, recovered by ArizSimilar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
96.0%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+10
95.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 10 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
95.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 8 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+5
95.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.7%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
95.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 8 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 2
OPP 47
-2
95.7%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 49Similar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
95.6%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2096% → 95%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.6%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the Oregn 20Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
95.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 18Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
95.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
95.4%
Blake Maimone punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:375% → 5%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
95.3%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 3 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
95.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 49Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-9
95.2%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Austin Faoliu and Bryson Young for a loss of 9 yards to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
95.3%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 36 yds, downed at the Oregn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 5:5395% → 96%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-6
95.2%
Justin Herbert sacked by JB Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 18Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 16
OWN 18
+5
95.1%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+27
95.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
50
0
95.1%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 10
50
+16
95.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Josh Delgado for 16 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
95.0%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+7
94.9%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the Ariz 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
94.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Spencer Webb for 3 yds to the Ariz 17Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
94.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 4 yds to the Ariz 13Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+11
94.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 11 yds to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
94.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (1 Yards) to the Ariz 1Similar
Q1 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
94.7%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 3Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
94.6%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 2 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
Q1 1:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.5%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 1:505% → 5%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-7
95.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 7 yds to the Ariz 29 ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (Steven Bailey) to the Ariz 15Similar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 17
OWN 15
+8
95.1%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Steve Stephens) to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
95.1%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Tayvian CunninghamSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
95.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-5
95.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 19Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 14
OWN 19
-2
95.1%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Troy Dye for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 17Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 16
OWN 17
0
95.1%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7MISSED FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:0596% → 95%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
95.5%
Travis Dye run for 11 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
95.5%
Travis Dye run for 14 yds to the Ariz 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
95.5%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+11
95.4%
CJ Verdell run for 11 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
95.4%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
95.3%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 2Similar
Q2 11:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
95.1%
Camden Lewis 20 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 3:265% → 5%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
94.7%
Gary Brightwell run for 4 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
94.6%
Khalil Tate run for 4 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
94.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
94.5%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Gary BrightwellSimilar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
94.6%
Khalil Tate run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+21
94.7%
Khalil Tate run for 21 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
94.3%
Darrius Smith run for 2 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
94.2%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-5
94.4%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Paiton Fears) to the Ariz 43Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 13
OWN 43
0
94.5%
Khalil Tate run for no gain to the Ariz 43Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
94.6%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5695% → 98%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
94.6%
Justin Herbert sacked by Tony Fields II for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 12Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+11
94.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Bryan Addison for 11 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+13
94.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 13 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
94.6%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+7
94.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 7 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
97.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 53 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:133% → 5%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
96.9%
OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
96.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 13 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
96.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+12
96.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 12 yds to the Oregn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Drew DixonSimilar
Q2 3:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.8%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
97.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 3 yds to the Oregn 5Similar
Q2 2:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
95.1%
Lucas Havrisik 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5596% → 95%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
95.7%
CJ Verdell run for 12 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
95.7%
Justin Herbert sacked by Jace Whittaker for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+2
95.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 2 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
95.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Spencer WebbSimilar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+4
95.4%
Blake Maimone punt for 48 yds , Jamarye Joiner returns for 4 yds to the Ariz 38 OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12END OF HALF
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:355% → 6%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
95.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 15 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.1%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
95.3%
Khalil Tate run for no gain to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+21
95.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 21 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
94.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 3 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+42
94.2%
Lucas Havrisik 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:546% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
94.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Jamarye Joiner) to the Ariz 20Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
94.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tayvian CunninghamSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
94.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
94.7%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tayvian CunninghamSimilar
Q3 14:06
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
94.8%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1095% → 95%
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.2%
Travis Dye run for no gain to the Ariz 45Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
95.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 5 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
95.0%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
94.7%
Blake Maimone punt for 35 yds, downed at the Ariz 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 3:285% → 5%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
94.6%
Khalil Tate run for 6 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+3
94.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+2
94.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
94.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Brian Casteel for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 11Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+2
94.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 13Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 13
OWN 13
-4
94.6%
Khalil Tate run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 9Similar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 17
OWN 9
0
94.9%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 32 yds, downed at the Ariz 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 1:3896% → 98%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
95.6%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+4
95.6%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+9
95.4%
Travis Dye run for 9 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
98.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Spencer Webb for 24 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17FUMBLE
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:362% → 2%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
98.1%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+10
98.1%
Gary Brightwell run for 10 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
98.2%
Gary Brightwell run for 4 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
98.2%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+2
98.3%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+2
98.3%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 30 yds , Jevon Holland returns for 2 yds to the Oregn 37 Jevon Holland fumbled, recovered by Oregn Brady BreezeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18INT
12 plays · 34 yds · 4:5998% → 99%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
98.4%
Darrian Felix run for 11 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
98.5%
Darrian Felix run for 9 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-10
98.5%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Hanson) to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+3
98.7%
Justin Herbert run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 8
50
+5
98.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 5 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+5
98.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Nazar Bombata) to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.0%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+7
99.0%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.0%
Travis Dye run for no gain to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
99.1%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+42
98.9%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted Scottie Young Jr. return for 42 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:191% → 1%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for no gain to the Ariz 48Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
98.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-5
99.0%
Khalil Tate sacked by Kayvon Thibodeaux for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 4:0899% → 100%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
99.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darrian Felix for 4 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+5
99.1%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+4
99.2%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 6 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+33
99.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 33 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.3%
Travis Dye run for no gain to the Ariz 36Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
99.3%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+33
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 33 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:220% → 0%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 16 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 6 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+11
99.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 11 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
99.9%
Grant Gunnell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
99.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 1
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+15
99.9%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
99.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Steven Bailey) to the Oregn 23Similar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+11
99.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 11 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 4
OPP 12
-2
99.9%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Kayvon Thibodeaux for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 14Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+1
99.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Oregn 13Similar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+2
99.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 2 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:11100% → 100%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
99.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 5 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+6
99.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 6 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for no gain to the Oregn 22Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-1
99.9%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 21Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+5
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 5 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Blake Maimone punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
100.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Thomas Reid III for 12 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Thomas Reid IIISimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
100.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 11 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
100.0%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Brandon Dorlus for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 13
50
0
100.0%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 13
50
-3
100.0%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Popo Aumavae and Dru Mathis for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 47Similar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 16
OWN 47
+7
100.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Thomas Reid III for 7 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
100.0%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 3 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:09
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 53 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q3 7:32
Justin Herbert pass complete to Spencer Webb for 24 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
+3
FG · Q2 0:00
Lucas Havrisik 42 yd FG GOOD
-2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com