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ORST

Oregon State 56 at Arizona 38

ARIZ
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Kyle Ostendorp punt for 51 yds , Jesiah Irish returns for 11 yds to the OrgSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Home team on offense−14.0Score differential−7.3Pregame prior+6.0Garbage-time factor−4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:31: Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +10.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:04: Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 23 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +13.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:33: Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +14.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:42: Grant Gunnell pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 35 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ARIZ win probability +10.4 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:58: Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 25 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +11.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:22ARIZ 4th & 1 at ORST 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:18ARIZ 4th & 5 at ORST 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:18ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:33ARIZ 4th & 6 at ORST 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:07ARIZ 4th & 27 at ARIZ 48, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 25, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:42ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−3.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:53ARIZ 4th & 2 at ORST 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    22.5%−1.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−8.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:20ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 45, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−2.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:16ARIZ 4th & 6 at ORST 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−6.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ORST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:28ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:04ORST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:03ARIZ Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    60.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:02ORST Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:41ARIZ Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:31ORST Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:04ORST Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:33ORST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 8:42ARIZ Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 3:20ARIZ Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:58ORST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 4:11ARIZ Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:15ORST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3238% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
62.3%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+23
62.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 23 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
62.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+10
62.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
62.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 3 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+6
62.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
62.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
60.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 21 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2FG
16 plays · 70 yds · 5:0461% → 61%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
60.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 18 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
61.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+7
61.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
61.3%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+18
61.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Brian Casteel for 18 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
61.4%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+5
61.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+3
61.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
61.4%
Gary Brightwell run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+9
61.4%
Gary Brightwell run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
61.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
61.4%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+8
61.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 8 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
61.3%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
60.7%
Lucas Havrisik 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
60.6%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+14
60.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 45 yds , Jamarye Joiner returns for 14 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:4761% → 61%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
60.8%
Darrius Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+9
60.0%
Khalil Tate run for 9 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+41
60.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 41 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
61.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
61.6%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+1
61.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 1 yd to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
61.3%
Lucas Havrisik 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2940% → 48%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
59.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
59.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 9 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
59.1%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
59.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
50
+18
59.1%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 18 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+27
57.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 27 yds to the Ariz 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
57.7%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
57.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0153% → 62%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.3%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
53.6%
Gunnell, G. pass incomplete to Peterson, C., PENALTY OSU pass interference (Moore,Jalen) 15 yards to the ARIZ45, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
54.5%
Gary Brightwell run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+10
55.3%
Gunnell, G. pass incomplete to Peterson, C., PENALTY OSU holding (Taumoelau,Doug) 10 yards to the OSU38, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
62.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Gary Brightwell for 38 yds for a TD Gunnell, G. pass attempt to Johnson, J. good, PENALTY OSU holding off-setting, PENALTY ARIZ ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, NO PLAY. (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0141% → 51%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
59.1%
Luton,Jake pass incomplete to Bradford,T., PENALTY ARIZ holding (Wolfe, B.) 10 yards to the OSU37, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
58.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+4
57.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
57.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 5 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+6
57.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+39
57.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 39 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
57.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 5Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
49.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2150% → 62%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
50.3%
Gunnell, G. pass incomplete, PENALTY OSU roughing passer (Sandberg,Simon) 16 yards to the ARIZ45, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
51.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
51.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 49Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+21
50.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 6 yds to the ARIZONA 45 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Omar Speights) to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
53.0%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Hamilcar Rashed Jr. and Omar Speights for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+24
52.2%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 13 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, roughing passer (Avery Roberts) to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
53.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 7 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, face mask (4 yards) (Hamilcar Rashed Jr.) to the OrgSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
53.1%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
62.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1044% → 58%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 11 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
55.5%
Jake Luton sacked by Finton Connolly and Tony Fields II for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+4
56.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+43
55.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jesiah Irish for 43 yds to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
53.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 14 yds to the Ariz 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
42.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 15 yds · 1:1945% → 42%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
45.4%
Khalil Tate run for 13 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
46.7%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Darrius SmithSimilar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
46.2%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Jamarye JoinerSimilar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+19
45.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 19 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-11
48.9%
Khalil Tate sacked by Hamilcar Rashed Jr. and John McCartan for a loss of 11 yards to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 21
OPP 46
-10
44.6%
Khalil Tate sacked by Hamilcar Rashed Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the Ariz 44Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 31
OWN 44
+4
41.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 4 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 27
OWN 48
0
41.9%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jesiah Irish at the OrgSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 0:5457% → 76%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+25
42.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 25 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
41.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 8 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+12
39.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 12 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
39.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 20 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
37.4%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
37.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+23
24.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 23 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
31.5%
Khalil Tate run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
31.3%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to J.J. TaylorSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+1
30.8%
Khalil Tate run for 1 yd to the Ariz 25Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+11
30.8%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 51 yds , Jesiah Irish returns for 11 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:1673% → 90%
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
26.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
26.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+18
26.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 18 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
25.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 12 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
24.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 17 yds to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
24.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Ariz 5Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
10.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5113% → 24%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
12.8%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 3 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+18
13.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 18 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
13.7%
OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Jojo Forest) to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
14.1%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to J.J. TaylorSimilar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
14.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+35
24.3%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 35 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.0%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-11
21.2%
Jake Luton sacked by Myles Tapusoa for a loss of 11 yards to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q3 8:42
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+10
22.0%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 45 yds , Jamarye Joiner returns for 10 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:3322% → 32%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
22.3%
Gary Brightwell run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 5
50
+7
22.4%
Gary Brightwell run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
22.9%
Gary Brightwell run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+29
23.2%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 29 yds to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
23.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jamarye Joiner) to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
23.7%
Grant Gunnell run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+1
23.7%
Gary Brightwell run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 2
OPP 17
0
23.3%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+3
23.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 3 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
23.7%
Gary Brightwell run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
32.1%
Gary Brightwell run for 10 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+16
26.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
25.1%
Jake Luton sacked by Anthony Pandy for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+7
26.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 7 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-10
25.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Gus Lavaka) to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 18
OWN 39
+6
26.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to B.J. Baylor for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 3:20
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
27.8%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 54 yds, downed at the Ariz 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19MISSED FG
13 plays · 78 yds · 3:5223% → 20%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
23.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
22.8%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Jalen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+28
21.7%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 28 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
24.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 11 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
25.4%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 3 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
25.6%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Drew Dixon for 6 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
26.9%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
27.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 22 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
29.4%
Grant Gunnell run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
29.4%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Drew DixonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
27.5%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Boobie Curry for no gain to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
20.0%
Lucas Havrisik 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:1884% → 97%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
16.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+11
16.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 11 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
15.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+2
15.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+15
15.1%
Luton,Jake pass incomplete to Lindsey,Tyjon, PENALTY ARIZ roughing passer (Schooler, C.) 15 yards to the ARIZ46, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
14.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 11 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
14.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 40Similar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+15
14.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (Tony Fields II) to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
3.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 25 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:475% → 12%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
4.8%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
5.1%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 30Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
4.8%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 15 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
5.2%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Jalen Johnson, broken up by Omar SpeightsSimilar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
5.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
5.5%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 15 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
6.1%
Grant Gunnell run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 3
OPP 21
0
6.1%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Brian CasteelSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+13
5.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 17 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, face mask (9 yards) (Omar Speights) to the OrgSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
6.1%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Drew Dixon, broken up by Isaiah DunnSimilar
Q4 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
6.1%
Grant Gunnell run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:5692% → 99%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
7.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 9 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+10
7.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
7.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Tyjon Lindsey) to the Ariz 24Similar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+24
1.4%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 24 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23END OF GAME
10 plays · 28 yds · 1:372% → 2%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.1%
Grant Gunnell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
2.1%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to J.J. TaylorSimilar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+18
2.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 18 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
2.2%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+14
2.2%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 14 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
2.4%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Michael Wiley for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 12
OPP 43
-4
1.5%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Hamilcar Rashed Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 16
OPP 47
0
1.5%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:33
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
-14.3
TD · Q2 0:04
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 23 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
-13.3
TD · Q4 7:58
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 25 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com