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ARIZ

Arizona 14 at USC 41

USC
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:04 · Matt Aragon punt for 53 yds, downed at the USC 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Home team on offense+12.9Pregame prior+14.5Score differential+4.5Garbage-time factor+2.2Blowout margin+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 8:02: Chase McGrath 31 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +0.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:23: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +2.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:07: Markese Stepp run for 12 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +9.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:28: Chase McGrath 38 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +3.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:29: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +2.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 8ARIZ made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00USC 4th & 1 at USC 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:15ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:44USC 4th & 14 at USC 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:02USC 4th & 2 at ARIZ 13, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.2%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:24ARIZ 4th & 5 at USC 38, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.8%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:24USC 4th & 4 at USC 44, up 3
    Close callPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00ARIZ 4th & 11 at ARIZ 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:10USC 4th & 14 at USC 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:13ARIZ 4th & 15 at USC 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:04ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00ARIZ 4th & 14 at ARIZ 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:28USC 4th & 1 at ARIZ 19, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%−1.6
    77% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−6.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:21ARIZ 4th & 14 at ARIZ 26, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:35USC 4th & 18 at USC 39, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:08ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 37, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:20ARIZ 4th & 13 at USC 32, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:12ARIZ 4th & 1 at USC 47, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:12ARIZ 4th & 3 at USC 18, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:25USC 4th & 1 at USC 41, up 34
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARIZ made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q1 0:23USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:07USC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:29USC Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:13USC Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:12ARIZ Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:20USC Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:28ARIZ Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
77.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 6 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
77.8%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
77.8%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+2
77.8%
Ben Griffiths punt for 51 yds , Stanley Berryhill III returns for 2 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
77.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Brian Casteel for 4 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
77.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
77.3%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
77.3%
Jamarye Joiner pass incomplete to Stanley Berryhill IIISimilar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
77.3%
Khalil Tate run for no gain to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-2
77.4%
Khalil Tate sacked by Juliano Falaniko and Kana'i Mauga for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+10
77.5%
Matt Aragon punt for 37 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for 10 yds to the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
76.9%
[NHSG], Slovis, Kedon pass complete to Pittman, Michael for 6 yards to the USC44 (Barrs, Kyon), PENALTY USC holding (Jackson, Austin) 10 yards to the USC28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 20
OWN 28
0
76.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+1
76.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 1 yd to the USC 29Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+5
76.6%
[NHSG], PENALTY ARIZ offside 5 yards to the USC34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
76.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 14
OWN 34
-3
76.5%
Ben Griffiths punt for 42 yds , Stanley Berryhill III returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 21 Stanley Berryhill III fumbled, recovered by USC Damon JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2277% → 77%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
77.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr., broken up by Lorenzo BurnsSimilar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
77.1%
Markese Stepp run for no gain to the Ariz 21Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+8
76.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 8 yds to the Ariz 13Similar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+31
76.8%
Chase McGrath 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:3823% → 24%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
76.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Boobie Curry for 10 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
76.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+12
76.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 12 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
76.2%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Boobie CurrySimilar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-3
76.2%
Khalil Tate sacked by John Houston Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 46Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+8
76.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 8 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+56
76.0%
Lucas Havrisik 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
76.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+1
76.7%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the USC 44Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
76.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. Brown, broken up by Jace WhittakerSimilar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
75.9%
Ben Griffiths punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jamarye Joiner at the Ariz 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
76.0%
Brian Casteel run for 7 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 3
OWN 25
-1
75.8%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+11
76.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Brian Casteel for 11 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
75.8%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 34 Michael Wiley fumbled, forced by Kana'i Mauga, recovered by USC John Houston Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:1977% → 80%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
76.7%
Markese Stepp run for 11 yds to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
76.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 5 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+4
76.7%
Markese Stepp run for 4 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+5
76.3%
Markese Stepp run for 5 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
76.7%
[NHSG], PENALTY ARIZ offside (Brown, JB) 5 yards to the ARIZ4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
76.7%
[NHSG], PENALTY USC delay of game (Slovis, Kedon) 5 yards to the ARIZ9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
79.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 0:1821% → 21%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
78.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 9 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+3
78.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-8
78.3%
Khalil Tate sacked by Marlon Tuipulotu and John Houston Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 25
+11
78.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 11 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+9
78.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Drew Dixon for 9 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
78.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
77.9%
Khalil Tate run for 4 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-7
77.8%
Khalil Tate sacked by Jay Tufele and Kana'i Mauga for a loss of 7 yards to the Ariz 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
79.1%
Matt Aragon punt for 37 yds, downed at the USC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
79.1%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+8
79.1%
Stephen Carr run for 8 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
79.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 11 yds to the USC 42 USC Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyler Vaughns) to the USC 32Similar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 9
OWN 32
0
79.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+1
79.1%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the USC 33Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-6
78.7%
Kedon Slovis sacked by JB Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 27Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
77.9%
Ben Griffiths punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
79.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
50
+11
78.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 11 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
78.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-7
78.3%
Khalil Tate sacked by Drake Jackson and Isaiah Pola-Mao for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 44Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 15
OPP 44
0
79.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Boobie Curry, broken up by Isaac Taylor-StuartSimilar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 15
OPP 44
0
80.2%
Matt Aragon punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tyler Vaughns at the USC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 5:0980% → 91%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
79.7%
Markese Stepp run for 6 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+1
79.8%
Markese Stepp run for 1 yd to the USC 20Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+30
79.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
50
+2
80.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 2 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
80.9%
Markese Stepp run for no gain to the Ariz 48Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+11
80.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 11 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
81.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 7 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+16
81.1%
Stephen Carr run for 16 yds to the Ariz 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
81.1%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the Ariz 12Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
90.5%
Markese Stepp run for 12 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:5712% → 12%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
88.2%
USC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
87.7%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Drew DixonSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-10
88.0%
[NHSG], Tate, Khalil pass incomplete, PENALTY ARIZ holding (Laie, Donovan) 10 yards to the ARIZ28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 20
OWN 28
-3
88.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 23
OWN 25
+11
88.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 11 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
88.0%
Matt Aragon punt for 53 yds, downed at the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
88.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Brian CasteelSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 0
0
87.1%
[NHSG], Tate, Khalil rush for 4 yards to the ARIZ31 (Williams, Max), PENALTY ARIZ holding off-setting, PENALTY USC holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
88.9%
Khalil Tate sacked by Abdul-Malik McClain for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 21Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+2
89.1%
Matt Aragon punt for 35 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for 2 yds to the USC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FUMBLE
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
89.9%
Markese Stepp run for 9 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 1
OPP 45
-5
89.9%
[NHSG], Slovis, Kedon pass complete to St. Brown, Amon-Ra for 10 yards to the ARIZ35 (Whittaker, Jace), PENALTY USC ineligible downfield on pass (Richmond, Drew) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 6
50
-1
89.9%
Markese Stepp run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 49Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+17
89.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 17 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
89.9%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+14
89.9%
Markese Stepp run for 14 yds to the Ariz 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
89.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-5
89.9%
[NHSG], PENALTY USC false start (McKenzie, Jalen) 5 yards to the ARIZ22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+5
89.8%
Quincy Jountti run for 5 yds to the Ariz 17 Quincy Jountti fumbled, forced by Tony Fields II, recovered by Ariz Colin SchoolerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
90.6%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1993% → 96%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
92.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 2 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+7
92.8%
Kenan Christon run for 7 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
92.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+38
96.2%
Chase McGrath 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
95.8%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to J.J. Taylor for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 26Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
96.0%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 14
OWN 26
0
96.0%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Cedric Peterson, broken up by Hunter EcholsSimilar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 14
OWN 26
+7
96.0%
Matt Aragon punt for 34 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for 7 yds to the USC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
96.7%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the USC 47Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-15
96.7%
[NHSG], Slovis, Kedon pass incomplete to London, Drake, PENALTY USC pass interference (London, Drake) 15 yards to the USC32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 25
OWN 32
0
96.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr., broken up by Bobby WolfeSimilar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 25
OWN 32
+7
96.4%
Kenan Christon run for 7 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 18
OWN 39
0
96.2%
Ben Griffiths punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jamarye Joiner at the Ariz 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
96.3%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 18 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.1%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
96.1%
J.J. Taylor run for no gain to the Ariz 37Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
96.4%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to J.J. Taylor, broken up by Jay TufeleSimilar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
96.4%
Matt Aragon punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:1797% → 100%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+54
97.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 54 yds to the Ariz 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
97.1%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the Ariz 5Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22MISSED FG
12 plays · 36 yds · 4:010% → 0%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
99.7%
Nathan Tilford run for 1 yd to the Ariz 33Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+8
99.7%
Grant Gunnell run for 8 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
99.6%
Nathan Tilford run for 2 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
99.7%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Thomas Reid III for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 3
50
+21
99.6%
Nathan Tilford run for 21 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.6%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Nathan Tilford for 4 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-3
99.6%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
99.8%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Jamarye Joiner, broken up by Kaulana MakaulaSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+5
99.8%
[NHSG], PENALTY USC offside (Falaniko, Juliano) 5 yards to the USC23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 23
-9
99.8%
[NHSG], Gunnell, Grant pass complete to Peterson, Cedric for 9 yards to the USC14 (Hewett, Dorian), PENALTY ARIZ holding (Fears, Paiton) 9 yards to the USC32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 13
OPP 32
+50
99.8%
Lucas Havrisik 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.8%
Kedon Slovis run for 4 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+9
99.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 9 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
99.8%
Kenan Christon run for 55 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
99.8%
Nathan Tilford run for 9 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+5
99.8%
Nathan Tilford run for 5 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
99.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 56 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:52100% → 100%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the USC 28Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
99.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 13 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
99.8%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Trevon Mason for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 33Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+5
99.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+32
99.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 32 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.9%
Kenan Christon run for 30 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26DOWNS
14 plays · 50 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
99.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 12 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Michael Wiley for 2 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+1
99.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Michael Wiley for 1 yd to the Ariz 47Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+6
99.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Michael Wiley for 6 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+2
99.9%
Nathan Tilford run for 2 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
99.9%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Nick Figueroa for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+10
99.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 10 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+14
99.9%
Michael Wiley run for 14 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
99.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 7 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Stanley Berryhill IIISimilar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Jamarye JoinerSimilar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 3
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Jamarye JoinerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
99.9%
Quincy Jountti run for 5 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+9
99.9%
Matt Fink pass complete to Munir McClain for 9 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Quincy Jountti run for 2 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+6
100.0%
Matt Fink pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 6 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+1
100.0%
Quincy Jountti run for 1 yd to the USC 41Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+57
100.0%
Ben Griffiths punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARIZONA 4 ARIZONA Penalty, IB (Nazar Bombata) to the Ariz 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 28TD
7 plays · 98 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+21
100.0%
Nathan Tilford run for 21 yds to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
100.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Drew Dixon for 11 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
100.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 13 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
100.0%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Michael Wiley, broken up by Nick FigueroaSimilar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+18
100.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Michael Wiley for 18 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
100.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Boobie Curry for 8 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+27
100.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 27 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:07
Markese Stepp run for 12 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+9.4
FG · Q3 8:28
Chase McGrath 38 yd FG GOOD
+3.7
TD · Q1 0:23
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com