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WASH

Washington 51 at Arizona 27

ARIZ
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreWASH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:07 · Matt Aragon punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wash 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+52.5+26.30−26.3−52.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Home team on offense−23.5Pregame prior−3.4Score differential−11.7Garbage-time factor−8.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:31: K. Tate pass,to J. Joiner for 40 yds for a TD, (L. Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +9.0 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 1:06: J. Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (L. Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +12.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:40: Jacob Eason pass complete to Jack Westover for 3 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +11.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:41: Salvon Ahmed run for 4 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +16.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:07: Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 22 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +13.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 10WASH made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:17WASH 4th & 1 at ARIZ 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.0%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:37ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:43WASH 4th & 5 at ARIZ 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:43ARIZ 4th & 11 at ARIZ 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:04WASH 4th & 5 at WASH 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:35WASH 4th & 8 at ARIZ 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00ARIZ 4th & 15 at ARIZ 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:59ARIZ 4th & 2 at WASH 32, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.5%−1.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:59WASH 4th & 11 at ARIZ 32, up 3
    Close callPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:36WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00WASH 4th & 1 at ARIZ 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    46.7%−3.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−2.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:40ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:49WASH 4th & 9 at WASH 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−3.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:46ARIZ 4th & 13 at WASH 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−7.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:07ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:59WASH 4th & 1 at ARIZ 11, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%−0.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:25ARIZ 4th & 1 at WASH 25, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:12ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 25, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q2 8:55WASH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:31ARIZ Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:06ARIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:40WASH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:41WASH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:07WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:54WASH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:25ARIZ Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:12WASH Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
34.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 16 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
34.4%
Khalil Tate run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 44
-9
34.4%
Khalil Tate sacked by Joe Tryon for a loss of 9 yards to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 35
+13
34.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 13 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
34.4%
TEAM punt blocked by Levi Onwuzurike blocked by Levi OnwuzurikeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
35.2%
Salvon Ahmed run for 2 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+6
35.2%
Chico McClatcher run for 6 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
35.2%
Salvon Ahmed run for 1 yd to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
35.3%
Salvon Ahmed run for no gain to the Ariz 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
36.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-3
36.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+5
36.0%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
36.2%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+2
36.0%
Matt Aragon punt for 41 yds , Aaron Fuller returns for 2 yds to the Wash 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:3663% → 63%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+44
36.6%
Sean McGrew run for 44 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
36.0%
Sean McGrew run for 2 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+6
36.0%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 6 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+5
36.1%
Salvon Ahmed run for 5 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
36.0%
Salvon Ahmed run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+5
36.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Ariz 15Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
36.0%
Jacob Eason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+5
36.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 5 yds to the Ariz 10Similar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
36.9%
Peyton Henry 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.8%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
36.8%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
36.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 13 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
37.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Brian Casteel for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 36Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+1
36.9%
Khalil Tate run for 1 yd to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
36.5%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+13
36.3%
Matt Aragon punt for 38 yds , Aaron Fuller returns for 13 yds to the Wash 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
37.0%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Sean McGrew for a loss of 4 yards to the Wash 34Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+5
37.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Wash 39Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+4
37.0%
Sean McGrew run for 4 yds to the Wash 43Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
37.1%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Aaron Fuller, broken up by Lorenzo BurnsSimilar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 5
OWN 43
-10
37.8%
Joel Whitford punt for 39 yds , Thomas Reid III returns for a loss of 10 yards to the Ariz 8 Thomas Reid III fumbled, recovered by Wash Kyler GordonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 7FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4764% → 64%
Q1 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
36.2%
Salvon Ahmed run for 4 yds to the Ariz 4Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
36.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Chico McClatcher for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 5Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
36.6%
Salvon Ahmed run for 2 yds to the Ariz 3Similar
Q1 2:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
37.3%
WASHINGTON Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 8Similar
Q1 0:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
35.6%
Peyton Henry 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:3537% → 36%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
36.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 20
OWN 25
-5
36.3%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 20
+10
36.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 10 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
35.8%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+3
35.5%
Matt Aragon punt for 33 yds , Aaron Fuller returns for 3 yds to the Wash 40 Aaron Fuller fumbled, recovered by Ariz Xavier BellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1538% → 40%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
38.1%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
38.0%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd to the Wash 39Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+7
37.7%
Michael Wiley run for 7 yds to the Wash 32Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+50
39.7%
Lucas Havrisik 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 43 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
38.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 17 yds to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
37.1%
Salvon Ahmed run for 5 yds to the Wash 47Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+22
37.1%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 22 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
36.4%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+9
37.2%
Salvon Ahmed run for 9 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
36.4%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Salvon AhmedSimilar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 11
OPP 32
0
37.2%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Aaron Fuller, broken up by Lorenzo BurnsSimilar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 11
OPP 32
0
38.5%
Jacob Eason punt for 32 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -15 yds · 1:0439% → 31%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
39.1%
Nathan Tilford run for 3 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
39.1%
Nathan Tilford run for 2 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-5
30.5%
Brandon Wellington 5 Yd Fumble Return (Peyton Henry Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2431% → 42%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
31.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
31.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
31.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 37Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
31.3%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+15
30.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 15 yds to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
32.6%
Khalil Tate run for 8 yds to the Wash 40Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 2
OPP 40
0
32.7%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the Wash 40Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+40
41.7%
K. Tate pass,to J. Joiner for 40 yds for a TD, (L. Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:5562% → 59%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.5%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Puka NacuaSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
38.6%
WASHINGTON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Wash 20Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-11
38.8%
Jacob Eason sacked by Jalen Harris for a loss of 11 yards to the Wash 9Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 26
OWN 9
+20
41.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Puka Nacua for 20 yds to the Wash 29Similar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
40.9%
Joel Whitford punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Stanley Berryhill III at the Ariz 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 2:4741% → 56%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-6
40.8%
Khalil Tate sacked by Josiah Bronson for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 26Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+22
40.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 22 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
43.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the Wash 45Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
43.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Wash 43Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+7
43.3%
Nathan Tilford run for 7 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
43.6%
Nathan Tilford run for 9 yds to the Wash 27Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+3
44.9%
Nathan Tilford run for 3 yds to the Wash 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+23
43.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 23 yds to the Wash 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.6%
J. Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (L. Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.2%
Salvon Ahmed run for 1 yd to the Wash 26Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
52.3%
Salvon Ahmed run for no gain to the Wash 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2049% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
51.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Puka Nacua for 28 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
47.6%
Sean McGrew run for 8 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
47.2%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Aaron FullerSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
47.6%
Sean McGrew run for 1 yd to the Ariz 38Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+4
49.3%
Jacob Eason run for 4 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
46.5%
Sean McGrew run for 5 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+6
46.2%
Chico McClatcher run for 6 yds to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+19
46.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 19 yds to the Ariz 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
46.2%
Salvon Ahmed run for 1 yd to the Ariz 3Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.1%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Jack Westover for 3 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0040% → 41%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
39.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 14 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
41.4%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
41.1%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 38Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+7
39.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Michael Wiley for 7 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
40.8%
Matt Aragon punt for 43 yds , Aaron Fuller returns for no gain to the Wash 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
38.6%
Sean McGrew run for 8 yds to the Wash 20Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 2
OWN 20
-10
37.9%
WASHINGTON Penalty, personal foul (-10 Yards) to the Wash 10Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+3
38.9%
Sean McGrew run for 3 yds to the Wash 13Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 9
OWN 13
0
40.1%
Jacob Eason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 9
OWN 13
0
41.2%
Joel Whitford punt for 67 yds, downed at the Ariz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
40.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 2 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+11
40.3%
Khalil Tate run for 11 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
41.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 3 yds Jamarye Joiner fumbled, forced by Myles Bryant, recovered by Wash Myles BryantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 3:0265% → 81%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
35.4%
Salvon Ahmed run for 7 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+4
33.9%
Salvon Ahmed run for 4 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
33.9%
Chico McClatcher run for 5 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+2
33.9%
Salvon Ahmed run for 2 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+14
35.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 14 yds to the Ariz 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
19.2%
Salvon Ahmed run for 4 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 2:5522% → 27%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
21.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to J.J. Taylor for 22 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
23.7%
J.J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the Wash 46Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+29
24.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 29 yds to the Wash 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
26.0%
Michael Wiley run for 4 yds to the Wash 13Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+7
25.9%
WASHINGTON Penalty, face mask (7 yards) (Ryan Bowman) to the Wash 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-7
25.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wash 3 ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (Thomas Reid III) to the Wash 13Similar
Q3 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
-11
25.9%
Khalil Tate sacked by Ryan Bowman for a loss of 11 yards to the Wash 24Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
+11
25.0%
J.J. Taylor run for 11 yds to the Wash 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
22.7%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
27.0%
Lucas Havrisik 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3975% → 92%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
25.3%
Sean McGrew run for 10 yds to the Wash 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+39
24.7%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Jordan Chin for 39 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
21.9%
Salvon Ahmed run for 4 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+22
8.1%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 22 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to J.J. TaylorSimilar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
12.1%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
12.0%
Matt Aragon punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wash 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 24TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:1592% → 99%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
8.3%
Sean McGrew run for no gain to the Wash 37Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
8.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Jack Westover for 4 yds to the Wash 41Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+49
8.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Puka Nacua for 49 yds to the Ariz 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
7.5%
Sean McGrew run for 4 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
7.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Christian Roland-Wallace) to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
1.5%
Salvon Ahmed run for 3 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
2.5%
Khalil Tate pass intercepted Ryan Bowman return for no gain to the Ariz 25 WASHINGTON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Ariz 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 26FG
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:4899% → 99%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
1.5%
Salvon Ahmed run for 11 yds to the Ariz 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
1.5%
Salvon Ahmed run for 6 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+3
1.5%
Sean McGrew run for 3 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 1
OPP 11
0
1.6%
Jacob Eason run for no gain to the Ariz 11Similar
Q4 6:59
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+27
1.2%
Peyton Henry 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 2:281% → 4%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
1.2%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Michael Wiley for 4 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+6
1.3%
Michael Wiley run for 6 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
1.3%
Grant Gunnell run for 6 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+17
1.3%
Michael Wiley run for 17 yds to the Wash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
1.4%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 12 yds to the Wash 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
1.5%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete, broken up by Brandon WellingtonSimilar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
1.5%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Jamarye JoinerSimilar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+9
1.4%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 9 yds to the Wash 25Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+25
3.6%
Nathan Tilford run for 25 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 28TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 2:1197% → 99%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
2.8%
Salvon Ahmed run for 13 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
2.8%
Salvon Ahmed run for 6 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+14
2.8%
Sean McGrew run for 14 yds to the Ariz 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
0.6%
Salvon Ahmed run for 10 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.9%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Michael WileySimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.8%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
0.8%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+60
0.8%
Matt Aragon punt for 50 yds WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Wash 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
0.5%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 13Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 12
OWN 13
-1
0.5%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 12Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 13
OWN 12
-1
0.5%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:41
Salvon Ahmed run for 4 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
-16.2
TD · Q4 13:07
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 22 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
-13.7
TD · Q2 1:06
J. Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (L. Havrisik KICK)
+12.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com