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ARIZ

Arizona 35 at Colorado 30

COLO
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:58 · Matt Aragon punt for 37 yds , Dimitri Stanley returns for no gain to the Ariz 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Pregame prior+5.3Home team on offense−2.4Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:50: K.D. Nixon pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 38 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +17.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:40: Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 75 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +16.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:11: Tony Brown run for 15 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK) — COLO win probability +21.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:42: Nathan Tilford run for 5 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +18.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:51: Nathan Tilford run for 5 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +35.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 7 of 10ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 9:02COLO 4th & 11 at ARIZ 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:54ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:29COLO 4th & 26 at COLO 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−1.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00COLO 4th & 8 at ARIZ 41, down 4
    Close callPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    55.3%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:11ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:36COLO 4th & 8 at ARIZ 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:58ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 12, up 4
    Close callPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:37COLO 4th & 3 at ARIZ 22, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%−0.6
    72% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−5.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:11COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:46ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 46, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:37COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:46ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 28, up 1
    Close callPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:29COLO 4th & 3 at ARIZ 3, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%−2.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−20.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:51COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 46, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.7%−7.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:29COLO 4th & 4 at ARIZ 46, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%−6.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−7.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 0:15ARIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:50COLO Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:40ARIZ Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:03COLO Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:11ARIZ Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:11COLO Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:42ARIZ Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:51ARIZ Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−1.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 5:5859% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.7%
Alex Fontenot run for 6 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
58.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Daniel Arias for 6 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
58.7%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the Colo 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+9
58.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 9 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
58.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 2 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+4
58.7%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+5
58.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 5 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
58.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 11 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
58.7%
Alex Fontenot run for 12 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
58.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 7 yds to the Ariz 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 12
-8
58.7%
Alex Fontenot run for a loss of 8 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
58.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Brady Russell, broken up by Christian Roland-WallaceSimilar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+37
59.5%
James Stefanou 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
59.5%
J.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+4
59.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Michael Wiley for 4 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+6
59.6%
Khalil Tate run for 6 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
59.4%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+4
59.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Gary Brightwell for 4 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+5
59.4%
Khalil Tate run for 5 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
59.1%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
59.2%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
59.4%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete, broken up by Mikial OnuSimilar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 10
OWN 42
+15
59.8%
Matt Aragon punt for 48 yds , Dimitri Stanley returns for 15 yds to the Colo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
59.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 20 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
60.5%
Alex Fontenot run for 7 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 3
OPP 48
-15
60.8%
COLORADO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Colo 37Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 18
OWN 37
0
59.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Alex FontenotSimilar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 18
OWN 37
-10
59.4%
Montez, Steven pass complete to Brown, Tony for 20 yards to the ARIZ43 (Schooler, C.), PENALTY COLO holding (Sherman, Willia) 10 yards to the COLO27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 28
OWN 27
+2
59.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 26
OWN 29
0
59.0%
Alex Kinney punt for 63 yds , Brian Casteel returns for no gain to the Ariz 10 Brian Casteel fumbled, recovered by Ariz Brian CasteelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 3:1140% → 45%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
60.4%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the Ariz 13Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+1
60.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 1 yd to the Ariz 14Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+16
60.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 16 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
60.2%
Dante Smith run for 2 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+59
60.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 49 yds to the COLORADO 19 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (Delrick Abrams Jr.) to the Colo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
58.6%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Brian Casteel, broken up by Davion TaylorSimilar
Q1 3:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
58.6%
Dante Smith run for 2 yds to the Colo 7Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
54.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 7 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5PUNT
13 plays · 34 yds · 0:1556% → 56%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
56.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 8 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
56.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
56.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 15 yds to the COLORADO 48 COLORADO Penalty, illegal block (K.D. Nixon) to the Colo 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
57.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
57.4%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Arlington Hambright) to the Colo 41Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+1
56.3%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the Colo 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+15
56.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 15 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
57.7%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
57.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Daniel AriasSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
57.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaren Mangham for no gain to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
55.8%
Alex Kinney punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brian Casteel at the Ariz 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+19
54.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Boobie Curry for 19 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
54.3%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+2
54.2%
Nathan Tilford run for 2 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
54.6%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
55.7%
Matt Aragon punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dimitri Stanley at the Colo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
54.4%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Brady Russell, broken up by Tony Fields IISimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+22
54.1%
Alex Fontenot run for 22 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
56.7%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
56.4%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
56.0%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Dimitri StanleySimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
53.9%
Alex Kinney punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brian Casteel at the Ariz 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
52.9%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+1
53.1%
Gary Brightwell run for 1 yd to the Ariz 7Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+5
54.0%
Khalil Tate run for 5 yds to the Ariz 12Similar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 2
OWN 12
0
54.4%
Matt Aragon punt for 37 yds , Dimitri Stanley returns for no gain to the Ariz 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9FG
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:2655% → 57%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
55.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 8 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+12
55.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 12 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
56.4%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
56.4%
Steven Montez run for 1 yd to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+6
55.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 6 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+39
56.7%
James Stefanou 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10INT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2647% → 47%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.3%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
53.0%
Brian Casteel run for 1 yd to the Ariz 29Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
52.9%
Khalil Tate pass intercepted Mikial Onu return for 8 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11TD
1 play · 38 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
70.6%
K.D. Nixon pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 38 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
52.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 75 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:3755% → 67%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Brady Russell for 5 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+19
55.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 19 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
57.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 7 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
58.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+8
53.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 8 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
55.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Brady Russell for 15 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
55.3%
Steven Montez run for 7 yds to the Ariz 12Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 3
OPP 12
0
55.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+12
67.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Brady Russell for 12 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:4934% → 51%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
65.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 6 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
64.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Brian Casteel for 5 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
64.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Brian Casteel for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+11
65.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Dante Smith for 11 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+12
63.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Brian Casteel for 12 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
48.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Brian Casteel for 33 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Alex Fontenot for no gain to the Colo 25Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
53.5%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
52.7%
Alex Kinney punt for 45 yds, downed at the Ariz 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
52.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Drew Dixon for 8 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+3
51.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Brian Casteel for 3 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
51.0%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Drew DixonSimilar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
51.2%
Gary Brightwell run for 5 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+3
51.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 3 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
52.7%
Matt Aragon punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dimitri Stanley at the Colo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
53.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+7
54.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 7 yds to the Colo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
54.4%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
53.9%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Dimitri StanleySimilar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
52.4%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Dimitri StanleySimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
51.5%
Alex Kinney punt for 51 yds , Brian Casteel returns for no gain to the Ariz 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0048% → 45%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
52.2%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Jamarye JoinerSimilar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-3
52.6%
Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 19Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+9
54.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Dante Smith for 9 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
54.6%
Matt Aragon punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dimitri Stanley at the Colo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:1154% → 75%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
54.3%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
54.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 4 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+49
53.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 49 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
75.1%
Tony Brown run for 15 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 1:2931% → 55%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+29
69.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 29 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
66.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Michael Wiley for 10 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
65.0%
Nathan Tilford run for 9 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+6
64.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Michael Wiley for 6 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+26
63.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 26 yds to the Colo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
45.3%
Nathan Tilford run for 5 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22FG
17 plays · 72 yds · 7:1353% → 67%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.7%
Alex Fontenot run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 24Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+29
52.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Daniel Arias for 29 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
57.7%
Montez, Steven pass complete to Russell, Brady for 4 yards to the ARIZ43 (Roland-Wallace), PENALTY COLO illegal block (Fontenot, Alex) 15 yards to the COLO38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 25
OWN 38
+2
53.5%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 23
OWN 40
+11
53.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 11 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+13
53.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 13 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
57.8%
Alex Fontenot run for 11 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
59.4%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
59.4%
Montez, Steven pass complete to Arias, Daniel for 7 yards to the ARIZ16, PENALTY ARIZ offside defense (Barrs, K.) 5 yards to the ARIZ18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+2
57.8%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
55.5%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the Ariz 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
57.8%
Alex Fontenot run for 12 yds to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
57.9%
Alex Fontenot run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
57.8%
Alex Fontenot run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
55.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 2 yds to the Ariz 3Similar
Q4 11:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
67.0%
James Stefanou 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 4:3237% → 80%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
63.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Michael Wiley for 12 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
62.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Brian Casteel for 5 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+18
59.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Brian Casteel for 18 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
58.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 8 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+4
55.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 4 yds to the Colo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
56.3%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
56.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for no gain to the Colo 30Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+11
58.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Michael Wiley for 11 yds to the Colo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
55.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tayvian CunninghamSimilar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
56.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 7 yds to the Colo 12Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+5
57.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Michael Wiley for 5 yds to the Colo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
55.8%
Nathan Tilford run for 2 yds to the Colo 5Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
20.0%
Nathan Tilford run for 5 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24DOWNS
13 plays · 29 yds · 4:2231% → 25%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
31.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 9 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
34.4%
Steven Montez run for 3 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
32.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 8 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+1
35.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 1 yd to the Colo 46Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
34.4%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the Colo 46Similar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
32.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
35.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Tony Brown for 8 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-5
37.3%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (William Sherman) to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+3
37.0%
Steven Montez run for 3 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
36.3%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Daniel AriasSimilar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
24.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Dimitri StanleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25END OF GAME
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:2689% → 95%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
11.1%
Gary Brightwell run for 5 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+5
10.7%
Gary Brightwell run for 5 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
10.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+1
5.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 1 yd to the Colo 39Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+7
5.4%
Khalil Tate run for 7 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:51
Nathan Tilford run for 5 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)
-35.8
TD · Q3 5:11
Tony Brown run for 15 yds for a TD, (James Stefanou KICK)
+21.7
TD · Q3 3:42
Nathan Tilford run for 5 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)
-18
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com