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UCLA

UCLA 17 at Arizona 20

ARIZ
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:55 · Lucas Havrisik 34 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Pregame prior+8.6Home team on offense−2.1Garbage-time factor−1.2Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 8:00: Lucas Havrisik 40 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +3.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:17: Grant Gunnell pass complete to Darrius Smith for 75 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +14.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:02: Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +27.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:51: Gary Brightwell run for 10 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +27.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:27: TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 18 — ARIZ win probability +22.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:18ARIZ 4th & 11 at UCLA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:50ARIZ 4th & 7 at UCLA 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:04UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.7%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:55ARIZ 4th & 2 at UCLA 16, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%−0.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−4.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:55ARIZ 4th & 1 at UCLA 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%−2.6
    49% to make
    Punt
    51.8%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:14ARIZ 4th & 15 at UCLA 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−1.9
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    46.6%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:54UCLA 4th & 5 at UCLA 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:11ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 30, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:08UCLA 4th & 11 at ARIZ 49, up 1
    Close callWent for it · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:33UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.9%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:28UCLA 4th & 14 at ARIZ 19, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−3.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−9.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:12UCLA 4th & 9 at UCLA 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−1.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:38ARIZ 4th & 14 at UCLA 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−2.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:19ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.8%−4.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:20UCLA 4th & 6 at ARIZ 48, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:52ARIZ 4th & 13 at ARIZ 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−2.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:34UCLA 4th & 6 at ARIZ 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−14.7
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−24.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:33UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:17ARIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:02UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:51ARIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:3562% → 62%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
61.6%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 17 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
61.6%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 14 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
61.7%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
61.7%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-1
61.7%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Darrius Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 45Similar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 11
OPP 45
+7
61.6%
Matt Aragon punt for 37 yds , Kyle Philips returns for 7 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:3838% → 42%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
61.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jaylen ErwinSimilar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+8
61.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 8 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+6
61.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
61.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jaylen ErwinSimilar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+19
61.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+26
61.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 26 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
60.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jaylen ErwinSimilar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
60.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+14
61.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 14 yds to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
60.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+4
60.7%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the Ariz 2Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
58.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Matt Lynch for 2 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 3:3959% → 57%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.0%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Tayvian CunninghamSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.9%
Darrius Smith run for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
59.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Josh McCauley) to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
58.4%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Drew Dixon for 7 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
58.7%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 2 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
58.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-4
58.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Josh McCauley) to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+13
57.8%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
50
0
58.8%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
50
+3
58.5%
Darrius Smith run for 3 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
58.3%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
57.4%
Matt Aragon punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:4143% → 44%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
57.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+12
56.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 12 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
56.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 7 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-10
55.9%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sean Rhyan) to the UCLA 24Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+11
56.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 11 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
55.4%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the UCLA 36Similar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
55.6%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the UCLA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5MISSED FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0357% → 56%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
57.3%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 8 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+4
57.8%
Michael Wiley run for 4 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
57.6%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
57.5%
Grant Gunnell run for no gain to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+9
56.2%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 9 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+34
55.8%
Lucas Havrisik 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6INT
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:1546% → 49%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
54.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 17 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
53.5%
Demetric Felton run for 5 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
52.7%
Demetric Felton run for 3 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
52.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 4 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
51.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+6
51.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 6 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
51.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted Lorenzo Burns return for 12 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:2055% → 56%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
54.6%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 2 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+16
54.7%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 16 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
55.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 1 yd to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+2
54.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 2 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+24
54.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Drew Dixon for 24 yds to the UCLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
55.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh McCauley) to the UCLA 20Similar
Q2 8:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
0
54.6%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q2 8:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
0
54.3%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Thomas Reid IIISimilar
Q2 8:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
-2
52.4%
Darrius Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 0
OPP 22
+40
56.2%
Lucas Havrisik 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5045% → 46%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 9 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
53.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-3
53.9%
Joshua Kelley run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 3:0355% → 56%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+28
54.8%
Nathan Tilford run for 28 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
57.4%
Brian Casteel run for 5 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+4
57.4%
Nathan Tilford run for 4 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 1
OPP 33
0
56.9%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Drew DixonSimilar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+1
55.4%
Nathan Tilford run for 1 yd to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
57.8%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+15
57.5%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 15 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
57.6%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Stanley Berryhill IIISimilar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
57.6%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Drew DixonSimilar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-5
56.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 23Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 15
OPP 23
0
54.2%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Darrius SmithSimilar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 15
OPP 23
+41
55.9%
Lucas Havrisik 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1145% → 44%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
54.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Jalen Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 24Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
54.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 6 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
54.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Devin AsiasiSimilar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+49
55.9%
Wade Lees punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Brian Casteel at the ARIZONA 31 ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Ariz 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:3456% → 57%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
56.2%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Darrius Smith for 2 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+5
56.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 5 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+2
55.8%
Darrius Smith run for 2 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
56.8%
Matt Aragon punt for 70 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:5244% → 44%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
56.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 7 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+25
54.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 25 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
51.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kyle PhilipsSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
52.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Anthony Pandy for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 49Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
53.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Devin AsiasiSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
56.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Devin AsiasiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:0361% → 60%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
60.6%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Drew DixonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+34
60.2%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Michael Wiley for 34 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14FG
22 plays · 56 yds · 6:3246% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
54.4%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 20Similar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
54.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 6 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
54.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 8 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
53.6%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the UCLA 34Similar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
54.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
52.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
51.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Mike MartinezSimilar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+16
52.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 16 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
51.1%
Demetric Felton run for 1 yd to the Ariz 43Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+2
51.0%
Joshua Kelley run for 2 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+13
51.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 13 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
49.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 13 yds to the Ariz 15 UCLA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 30Similar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 12
OPP 30
-5
49.5%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 35Similar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 17
OPP 35
0
50.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 17
OPP 35
+5
50.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+15
51.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
48.8%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 20Similar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
49.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+1
49.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the Ariz 19Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 14
OPP 19
0
52.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 14
OPP 19
+37
50.3%
JJ Molson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
65.7%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Darrius Smith for 75 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:0036% → 34%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
63.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 11 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
62.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Chase CotaSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
63.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd to the UCLA 37Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
64.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Devin AsiasiSimilar
Q3 7:12
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
65.8%
Wade Lees punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brian Casteel at the Ariz 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 3:2766% → 64%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
65.7%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Keisean Lucier-South for a loss of 9 yards to the Ariz 10Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 19
OWN 10
+17
65.3%
Gary Brightwell run for 17 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+3
65.0%
Grant Gunnell run for 3 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
66.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 14 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
68.5%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 2 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
68.3%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Brian CasteelSimilar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+10
66.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Thomas Reid III for 10 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
69.4%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Brian Casteel) to the UCLA 49Similar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+1
67.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 1 yd to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 14
OPP 48
0
67.6%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Brian CasteelSimilar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 14
OPP 48
0
65.9%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Drew DixonSimilar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
63.9%
Matt Aragon punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:3035% → 67%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
64.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Joshua KelleySimilar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
65.1%
Joshua Kelley run for 13 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
64.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 15 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
61.8%
Demetric Felton run for no gain to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
63.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 9 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+4
60.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 4 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
60.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+36
60.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 36 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
33.3%
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0943% → 76%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.5%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
43.3%
Grant Gunnell run for 8 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
44.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 33Similar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+2
42.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Darrius Smith for 2 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+11
41.5%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 11 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
44.5%
Grant Gunnell run for 1 yd to the Ariz 47Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
42.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 1 yd to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+27
45.4%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 27 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
48.3%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 8 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+7
48.2%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 7 yds to the UCLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
75.9%
Gary Brightwell run for 10 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:2534% → 37%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
66.4%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
64.2%
Joshua Kelley run for 6 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
63.8%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Jaylen ErwinSimilar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
64.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+7
63.1%
Austin Burton pass complete to Kyle Philips for 7 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
60.6%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-1
59.7%
Joshua Kelley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
60.4%
Austin Burton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:20
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
63.1%
Wade Lees punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Brian Casteel at the Ariz 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 4:2369% → 82%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
69.2%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the Ariz 9Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 9
-2
68.8%
Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 7Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 9
OWN 7
+21
68.6%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Darrius Smith for 21 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
72.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 7 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+16
75.5%
Darrius Smith run for 16 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
81.6%
Darrius Smith run for 7 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-5
83.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 49Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-3
81.5%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Shea Pitts for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 13
OWN 48
+4
81.5%
Matt Aragon punt for 47 yds , Kyle Philips returns for 4 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22MISSED FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 2:1327% → 28%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
72.9%
Joshua Kelley run for 4 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+9
74.3%
Austin Burton pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 9 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
74.1%
Joshua Kelley run for 7 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+8
72.4%
Austin Burton run for 8 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
72.6%
Austin Burton pass complete to Chase Cota for 7 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+21
68.2%
Austin Burton pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 21 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
65.3%
Demetric Felton run for 7 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+3
63.7%
Demetric Felton run for 3 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Austin Burton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
66.7%
Austin Burton pass incomplete to Devin AsiasiSimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+4
70.9%
Austin Burton pass complete to Demetric Felton for 4 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
71.6%
JJ Molson 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · -14 yds · 0:0794% → 95%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
93.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 18Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 19
OWN 12
-5
94.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:51
Gary Brightwell run for 10 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)
+27.7
TD · Q3 0:02
Joshua Kelley run for 3 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
-27.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:27
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 18
+22.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com