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NAU

Northern Arizona 41 at Arizona 65

ARIZ
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadNAU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreNAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDSAFETYTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:14 · Nazar Bombata run for 7 yds to the NoArz 49 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:45: Case Cookus pass complete to Stacy Chukwumezie for 24 yds for a TD, (Luis Aguilar KICK) — NAU win probability +0.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:27: Khalil Tate run for 1 yd for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +1.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:42: Khalil Tate pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 8 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 7:56: Luis Aguilar 34 yd FG GOOD — NAU win probability +2.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 4:18: Grant Gunnell pass complete to Drew Dixon for 9 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:29NAU 4th & 9 at NAU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:38ARIZ 4th & 1 at NAU 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:27ARIZ 4th & 1 at NAU 1, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    92.3%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:27NAU 4th & 16 at NAU 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:56NAU 4th & 10 at ARIZ 17, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.7%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:08ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 16, up 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:30ARIZ 4th & 1 at NAU 1, up 43
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q4 4:52ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 29, up 43
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:29ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:00ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:22ARIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:45NAU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:27ARIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:42ARIZ Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:18ARIZ Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 1:41ARIZ Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 1:3196% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
96.1%
Brian Casteel run for 9 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+2
96.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
96.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Brian Casteel for 9 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+5
96.1%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
96.1%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NoArz 47Similar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+47
96.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 47 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.9%
Case Cookus pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (7 Yards) to the NoArz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
95.9%
DJ Arnson punt for 32 ydsSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
95.9%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Joe LoganSimilar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
95.9%
Joe Logan run for 2 yds to the NoArz 34Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-1
95.9%
Case Cookus sacked by Jalen Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 1:0196% → 96%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+40
95.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 40 yds to the NoArz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
95.8%
Khalil Tate run for no gain to the NoArz 25Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
95.9%
J.J. Taylor run for 25 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 4INT
12 plays · 50 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
95.8%
Aramis Aldredge run for 1 yd to the NoArz 18Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
95.8%
Case Cookus pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
95.9%
Case Cookus pass complete to Brandon Porter for no gain to the NoArz 18Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 9
OWN 18
+15
95.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the NoArz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
95.8%
Case Cookus pass complete to Hendrix Johnson for 6 yds to the NoArz 39Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
95.8%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Hendrix JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+10
95.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive holding (Lorenzo Burns) to the NoArz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
95.8%
Case Cookus pass complete to Hendrix Johnson for 15 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
95.8%
Case Cookus pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
95.8%
Aramis Aldredge run for 3 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
95.8%
Case Cookus pass intercepted Jace Whittaker return for no gain to the Ariz 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5TD
2 plays · 92 yds · 0:5196% → 96%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
95.8%
Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 6Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 12
OWN 6
+94
96.2%
Gary Brightwell run for 94 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:374% → 5%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Hendrix JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+32
96.3%
Case Cookus pass complete to Brandon Porter for 32 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
96.2%
Nate Stinson run for no gain to the Ariz 43Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
96.3%
Case Cookus pass complete to Brandon Porter for 5 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+10
96.2%
Case Cookus pass complete to Brandon Porter for 10 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
96.1%
Case Cookus run for 4 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
96.1%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Hendrix Johnson, broken up by Bobby WolfeSimilar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+24
95.3%
Case Cookus pass complete to Stacy Chukwumezie for 24 yds for a TD, (Luis Aguilar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7TD
18 plays · 80 yds · 7:1196% → 97%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
95.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 14 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
95.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 2 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+14
95.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
50
+3
95.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 3 yds to the NoArz 47Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+5
95.8%
J.J. Taylor run for 5 yds to the NoArz 42Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
95.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 1 yd to the NoArz 41Similar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+3
95.7%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the NoArz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
95.8%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the NoArz 35Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+8
95.8%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 8 yds to the NoArz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
95.5%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Cedric PetersonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
95.5%
Michael Wiley run for 4 yds to the NoArz 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+13
95.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 13 yds to the NoArz 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
95.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive pass interference (-15 Yards) to the NoArz 25Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 25
+11
95.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 11 yds to the NoArz 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
95.5%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+13
95.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Brian Casteel for 13 yds to the NoArz 1Similar
Q2 12:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.0%
Khalil Tate run for 1 yd for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.9%
Aramis Aldredge run for 2 yds to the NoArz 27Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
97.0%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Brandon Porter, broken up by Tristan CooperSimilar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
97.0%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoArz 22Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-3
97.0%
Case Cookus pass complete to Aramis Aldredge for a loss of 3 yards to the NoArz 19Similar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+42
97.0%
DJ Arnson punt for 54 yds , Brian Casteel returns for 42 yds to the NoArz 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9TD
4 plays · 31 yds · 1:3397% → 99%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
97.2%
Nathan Tilford run for 22 yds to the NoArz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
97.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 10Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
97.2%
Nathan Tilford run for 2 yds to the NoArz 8Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 8 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 10FG
8 plays · 67 yds · 1:412% → 4%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
98.5%
Case Cookus pass complete to Hendrix Johnson for 1 yd to the NoArz 17Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+10
98.5%
Case Cookus pass complete to Gino Campiotti for 10 yds to the NoArz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+56
98.5%
Case Cookus pass complete to Hendrix Johnson for 56 yds to the Ariz 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
98.3%
Case Cookus pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
98.3%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Sherrod PaigeSimilar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
98.4%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Stacy ChukwumezieSimilar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
95.6%
Luis Aguilar 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3897% → 99%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.3%
J.J. Taylor run for 13 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
97.4%
J.J. Taylor run for 9 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 1
OWN 47
-2
97.3%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 45Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+14
97.2%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Drew Dixon for 14 yds to the NoArz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
97.4%
Dante Smith run for 6 yds to the NoArz 35Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+13
97.3%
Dante Smith run for 13 yds to the NoArz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
97.4%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Dante Smith for 7 yds to the NoArz 15Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 3
OPP 15
0
96.9%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Tayvian CunninghamSimilar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+6
96.8%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Drew Dixon for 6 yds to the NoArz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.2%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Drew Dixon for 9 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 12SF
7 plays · -25 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
98.9%
Brandon Porter run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoArz 22Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
99.0%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Stacy ChukwumezieSimilar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+5
99.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NoArz 27Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.0%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Stacy ChukwumezieSimilar
Q2 3:28
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-27
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 27 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & GOAL
OWN 20
0
99.4%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, illegal batting ( Yards) to the NoArz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 1:4099% → 100%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
99.2%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 7 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+2
99.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+3
99.2%
J.J. Taylor run for 3 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
99.5%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Thomas Reid III for 75 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 14FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 1:411% → 0%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.5%
Nate Stinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoArz 22Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+12
99.5%
Case Cookus pass complete to Gino Campiotti for 12 yds to the NoArz 34Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.4%
Nate Stinson run for 4 yds to the NoArz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.5%
Case Cookus pass incomplete, broken up by Christian YoungSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
99.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Christian Young) to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.4%
Case Cookus pass complete to Hendrix Johnson for no gain to the Ariz 47Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
99.4%
Case Cookus pass complete to Nate Stinson for 8 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+13
99.4%
Case Cookus pass complete to Riley Langton for 13 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+43
99.6%
Luis Aguilar 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 15TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:520% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
Jacob Mpungi run for 1 yd to the NoArz 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+7
99.6%
Case Cookus pass complete to Brandon Porter for 7 yds to the NoArz 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+4
99.6%
Case Cookus pass complete to Brandon Porter for 4 yds to the NoArz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Gino CampiottiSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.6%
Jacob Mpungi run for 1 yd to the NoArz 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+32
99.6%
Case Cookus pass complete to Riley Langton for 32 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.5%
Case Cookus pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
99.5%
Case Cookus pass complete to Hendrix Johnson for 11 yds to the Ariz 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
99.5%
Jacob Mpungi run for 5 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+6
99.4%
Case Cookus pass complete to Joey Gatewood for 6 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.5%
Jacob Mpungi run for 4 yds to the Ariz 5Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.4%
Jacob Mpungi run for 3 yds to the Ariz 2Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Jacob Mpungi run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luis Aguilar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
99.7%
Michael Wiley run for 7 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 3
OWN 20
-4
99.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 16Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 7
OWN 16
0
99.7%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Tayvian CunninghamSimilar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
99.7%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 34 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 17INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
50
+4
99.8%
Aramis Aldredge run for 4 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Case Cookus pass intercepted Christian Roland-Wallace return for no gain to the Ariz 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
3 plays · 91 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+43
99.8%
Gary Brightwell run for 43 yds to the NoArz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
99.8%
Dante Smith run for 1 yd to the NoArz 47Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+47
99.8%
Bam Smith 47 Yd Run (Lucas Havrisik Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:450% → 0%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Brandon PorterSimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.8%
Case Cookus pass complete to Nate Stinson for 8 yds to the NoArz 33Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+11
99.8%
Case Cookus pass complete to Brandon Porter for 11 yds to the NoArz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.8%
Nate Stinson run for 2 yds to the NoArz 46Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+39
99.8%
Case Cookus pass complete to Joey Gatewood for 39 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
99.8%
Case Cookus pass complete to Hendrix Johnson for 8 yds to the Ariz 7Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Nate Stinson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Luis Aguilar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:50100% → 100%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
99.8%
Nathan Tilford run for 21 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
99.8%
Nathan Tilford run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 43Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 13
OWN 43
-3
99.8%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Brandon Lawless and Brandon Worthy for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 40Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+17
99.8%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Drew Dixon for 17 yds to the NoArz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
99.8%
Michael Wiley run for 9 yds to the NoArz 34Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the NoArz 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
99.9%
Nathan Tilford run for 2 yds to the NoArz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-2
99.9%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoArz 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+15
99.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 15 yds to the NoArz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
99.9%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the NoArz 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+8
99.9%
Dante Smith run for 8 yds to the NoArz 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
99.9%
Nathan Tilford run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoArz 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
99.9%
Grant Gunnell run for 9 yds to the NoArz 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Dante Smith run for no gain to the NoArz 1Similar
Q4 10:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Bam Smith 1 Yd pass from Grant Gunnell (Lucas Havrisik Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:180% → 0%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
George Romero-Robinson run for 3 yds to the NoArz 28Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
99.9%
Case Cookus pass complete to Aramis Aldredge for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 27Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+43
99.9%
Case Cookus pass complete to Stacy Chukwumezie for 43 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Stacy ChukwumezieSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+10
99.9%
Case Cookus pass complete to Brandon Porter for 10 yds to the Ariz 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
99.9%
George Romero-Robinson run for 13 yds to the Ariz 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
99.9%
George Romero-Robinson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 6Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Case Cookus pass complete to Terrell Hayward for 6 yds for a TD, (Luis Aguilar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:14100% → 100%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.9%
Dante Smith run for 6 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+3
99.9%
Dante Smith run for 3 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 1
OWN 32
-3
99.9%
Rhett Rodriguez run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 29 Rhett Rodriguez fumbled, recovered by Ariz Rhett RodriguezSimilar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Terrell Hayward at the NoArz 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
100.0%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoArz 24Similar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+22
100.0%
Heath Beemiller run for 7 yds to the NoArz 31 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, (Lee Anderson III) to the NoArz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
100.0%
Heath Beemiller run for 11 yds to the ARIZONA 43 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, targeting (Derrion Clark) to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Jacob Mpungi run for no gain to the Ariz 28Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
99.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive offside (Jaxen Turner) to the Ariz 23Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
George Romero-Robinson run for 23 yds for a TD, (Luis Aguilar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.9%
Michael Wiley run for 6 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+3
100.0%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+7
100.0%
Michael Wiley run for 7 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
100.0%
Nazar Bombata run for 5 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+7
100.0%
Nazar Bombata run for 7 yds to the NoArz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 7:56
Luis Aguilar 34 yd FG GOOD
-2.9
TD · Q2 4:18
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Drew Dixon for 9 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q2 12:27
Khalil Tate run for 1 yd for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com