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ORE

Oregon 28 at Arizona State 31

ASU
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:55 · Michael Turk punt for 37 yds, downed at the Oregn 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior−15.4Home team on offense+8.2Garbage-time factor+2.1Score differential+1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 12:43: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Frank Darby for 26 yds for a TD (Jayden Daniels pass to Eno Benjamin for Two-Point Conversion) — ASU win probability +15.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:43: Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 10 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +11.4 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:24: Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 24 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +34.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 3:54: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 81 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK) — ASU win probability +22.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:04: Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 17 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +26.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 10ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:11ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:20ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:59ORE 4th & 1 at ASU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.7%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    72.9%−0.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−2.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:19ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:34ORE 4th & 13 at ORE 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:40ASU 4th & 4 at ORE 7, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.7%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:22ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 27, down 3
    Close callPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:19ASU 4th & 1 at ORE 34, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.6%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00ASU 4th & 18 at ORE 38, up 3
    Numbers favored punt by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.3%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    38.7%−0.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    39.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:13ASU 4th & 10 at ORE 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−1.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−8.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:46ORE 4th & 10 at ASU 35, down 6
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    48.2%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:55ASU 4th & 10 at ORE 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    56.2%−1.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:16ORE 4th & 16 at ORE 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−5.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:02ASU 4th & 8 at ORE 33, up 6
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    66.5%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:42ASU 4th & 4 at ORE 4, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.4%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−5.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:07ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 6:32ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:55ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:43ASU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    85.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:43ORE Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.9%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:24ORE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−2.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:54ASU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:04ORE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:2486% → 85%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+25
14.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 25 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
14.8%
Justin Herbert sacked by Jermayne Lole and Roe Wilkins for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 41Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+5
15.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Bryan Addison for 5 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
15.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
15.2%
Blake Maimone punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:4015% → 16%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
15.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
15.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-5
16.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
16.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Alex Losoya) to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+9
16.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Frank Darby for 9 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
16.4%
Michael Turk punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:2883% → 84%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
16.7%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+9
17.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 9 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
17.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Oregn 38Similar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 5
OWN 38
0
16.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
17.1%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+8
17.3%
CJ Verdell run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
50
+12
17.4%
CJ Verdell run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
17.6%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
17.5%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+28
17.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 28 yds to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
17.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Bryan AddisonSimilar
Q1 6:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
16.0%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 5 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2017% → 20%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
16.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
17.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
17.3%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+57
19.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Frank Darby for 57 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5DOWNS
11 plays · 69 yds · 3:5681% → 79%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
19.3%
OREGON Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 20Similar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+16
19.6%
Travis Dye run for 16 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
19.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Spencer Webb for 11 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
19.1%
Travis Dye run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+6
19.2%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
19.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 24 yds to the ArzSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
19.2%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+5
19.6%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+3
20.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Josh Delgado for 3 yds to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q1 0:59
4TH & 1
OPP 6
0
20.7%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the ArzSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:3122% → 24%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
21.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 7Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+2
22.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+34
22.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 34 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
24.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-5
24.3%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (LaDarius Henderson) to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+7
23.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 7 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-15
24.2%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 22
OWN 31
+13
23.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
23.8%
Michael Turk punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jevon Holland at the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:2677% → 75%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
23.5%
CJ Verdell run for 13 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-9
23.3%
Daewood Davis run for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 19
OWN 24
0
24.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 19
OWN 24
+6
24.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 6 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 13
OWN 30
+11
25.5%
Blake Maimone punt for 57 yds , Brandon Aiyuk returns for 11 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 6:4626% → 33%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
25.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
26.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
28.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
28.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
28.9%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+17
27.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 17 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
30.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Alex Losoya) to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+33
29.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Frank Darby for 33 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
31.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the Oregn 12Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-5
31.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Roy Hemsley) to the Oregn 17Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 14
OPP 17
+5
31.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+5
32.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 5 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q2 3:40
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
33.4%
Christian Zendejas 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4868% → 66%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
32.5%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
32.0%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
32.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+12
34.5%
Blake Maimone punt for 50 yds , Brandon Aiyuk returns for 12 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10DOWNS
14 plays · 27 yds · 2:0034% → 35%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
34.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 11 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
36.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+5
37.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
37.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Nolan Matthews for 2 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+5
38.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+2
37.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 2 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+4
37.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
39.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
39.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-8
38.5%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Austin Faoliu for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 18
OPP 38
0
35.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:4136% → 47%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to K.J. JarrellSimilar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
37.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 11 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+55
42.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyle Williams for 46 yds to the ARIZONAST 18 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (9 Yards) to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
43.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the Oregn 8Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
43.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
42.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 10Similar
Q3 12:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
46.6%
Christian Zendejas 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:1456% → 53%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.0%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
42.3%
CJ Verdell run for 9 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
43.1%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+3
42.2%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
42.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 14 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
41.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
41.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
43.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Josh DelgadoSimilar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
47.3%
Blake Maimone punt for 32 yds, downed at the ArzSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:4049% → 53%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
49.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+8
50.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 8 yds to the ArzSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+25
51.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 25 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
53.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
53.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 8 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+11
54.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 11 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
56.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
56.9%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
56.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
53.4%
Michael Turk punt for 37 yds, downed at the Oregn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:1448% → 43%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
52.5%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+23
52.5%
Travis Dye run for 23 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
51.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 2 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
51.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-8
54.4%
Justin Herbert sacked by Khaylan Kearse-Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 16
OWN 27
+30
56.9%
Blake Maimone punt for 48 yds , Brandon Aiyuk returns for 30 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1464% → 65%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
64.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Nolan Matthews) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 15
50
+14
63.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 14 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+1
65.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
67.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
67.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Eno BenjaminSimilar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+2
66.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 8
OPP 33
0
64.5%
Michael Turk punt for 33 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:5743% → 43%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
56.6%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
57.2%
CJ Verdell run for 8 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
56.8%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted Jack Jones return for 7 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:4771% → 90%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
70.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+4
71.6%
Kyle Williams run for 4 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
70.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
74.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+26
90.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Frank Darby for 26 yds for a TD (Jayden Daniels pass to Eno Benjamin for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:3114% → 14%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.1%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
85.6%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted Khaylan Kearse-Thomas return for 12 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:0893% → 96%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
92.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+6
93.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
93.6%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the Oregn 9Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
94.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
94.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 3 yds to the Oregn 4Similar
Q4 8:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
95.8%
Christian Zendejas 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:475% → 17%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
94.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 11 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
94.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Roe Wilkins) to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+39
94.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 39 yds to the ArzSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
83.3%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 10 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5389% → 89%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
90.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
89.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Eno BenjaminSimilar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+7
89.4%
Michael Turk punt for 41 yds , Jevon Holland returns for 7 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:2610% → 46%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
89.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 19 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
88.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 23 yds to the ArzSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
53.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 24 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3069% → 91%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
69.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
68.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-7
69.1%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Bryson Young and Austin Faoliu for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+81
91.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 81 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 1:369% → 34%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
91.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Spencer Webb for 17 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
90.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+13
91.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 13 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
92.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for no gain to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
92.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Spencer WebbSimilar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+14
93.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for 14 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
92.2%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
92.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
66.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 17 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25Uncategorized
9 plays · 11 yds · 1:5788% → 96%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
87.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 8 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+3
89.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
91.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-1
92.6%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 9
OPP 32
-1
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:24
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 24 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
-34.7
TD · Q4 2:04
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 17 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
-26.1
TD · Q4 3:54
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 81 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK)
+22.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com