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ASU

Arizona State 34 at Oregon State 35

ORST
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:42 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginTime remaining
+20.5+10.30−10.3−20.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:58: Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 5 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +8.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:33: Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +10.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:14: Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 12 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +14.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:19: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyle Williams for 8 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK) — ASU win probability +15.5 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:40: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 12 yds for a TD Timeout OREGON ST, clock 01:40 (Eno Benjamin intercepted ) ARIZONA ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declined — ASU win probability +28.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:34ASU 4th & 2 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:32ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:53ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:01ORST 4th & 16 at ORST 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−2.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:41ORST 4th & 11 at ORST 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:38ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:30ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−1.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:54ORST 4th & 2 at ASU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    72.8%−1.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−8.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:35ASU 4th & 5 at ORST 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%−1.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00ASU 4th & 29 at ORST 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−3.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    23.7%−1.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:35ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−1.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:14ORST 4th & 10 at ASU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    80.8%−3.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:40ASU 4th & 8 at ORST 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−5.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:40ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:35ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:00ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:20ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:58ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:33ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:14ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:19ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:2049% → 51%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
49.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 8 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
49.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 5 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
49.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 18 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
49.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+2
49.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
49.0%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+15
49.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 15 yds to the ArzSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
51.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Jesiah Irish for 24 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
50.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 1 yd to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
50.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+15
51.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 15 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
50.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
50.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyle Williams for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 2
50
0
50.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 2
50
0
50.8%
Michael Turk punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
52.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+1
52.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
52.1%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 5
OWN 19
+14
51.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 49 yds , Brandon Aiyuk returns for 14 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:3148% → 51%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
52.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
52.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 6
50
+6
52.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Frank Darby for 6 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+29
52.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 29 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
51.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 3
OPP 8
0
51.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+6
52.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:2951% → 57%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
50.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 9 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
51.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Tyjon Lindsey, broken up by Kejuan MarkhamSimilar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+1
50.8%
Jake Luton run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
51.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
51.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 5 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+40
51.6%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 40 yds to the ArzSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
52.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+7
52.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
57.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 5 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:3245% → 51%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
54.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
54.4%
Kyle Williams run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
53.8%
Kyle Williams run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+24
48.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Frank Darby for 24 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 5:1552% → 62%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
51.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+19
52.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
53.3%
Trevon Bradford run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
53.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+17
53.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 17 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
53.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
53.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 2 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+13
53.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
53.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
62.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 5 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+23
59.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyle Williams for 23 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
57.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 1 yd Brandon Aiyuk fumbled, forced by Isaiah Dunn, recovered by ArzSt Kyle Williams , return for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
58.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
58.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for no gain to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
60.2%
Michael Turk punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT RETURN TD
8 plays · 5 yds · 3:4962% → 52%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-8
61.9%
Jake Luton sacked by Jermayne Lole for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 18
OWN 2
+3
61.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 15
OWN 5
+1
60.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q2 7:50
4TH & 14
OWN 6
+15
60.0%
Rodriguez,D. punt 26 yards to the OSU32, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ASU personal foul (Hodges,Curtis) 15 yards to the OSU21, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
62.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
61.8%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-6
60.9%
Jake Luton sacked by Khaylan Kearse-Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q2 4:01
4TH & 16
OWN 15
+63
51.5%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 48 yds , Brandon Aiyuk returns for 63 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:2254% → 70%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
54.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 19 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
56.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
56.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
56.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 5 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+14
57.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+18
59.2%
Trevon Bradford run for 18 yds to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
59.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
69.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
65.4%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Hamilcar Rashed Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the ArzSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
64.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Eno Benjamin for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
66.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (Steven Miller) to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+7
66.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Nolan Matthews for 7 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
66.8%
Michael Turk punt for 43 yds, downed at the OrgSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
67.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
66.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
65.7%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 11
OWN 29
+47
64.5%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 47 yds , Brandon Aiyuk returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
66.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+5
66.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 1
OWN 32
-4
66.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Eno Benjamin for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
68.5%
Michael Turk punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
70.9%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-5
70.6%
Jake Luton sacked by Roe Wilkins for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+8
69.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 8 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
68.8%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
68.2%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
66.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-8
67.9%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Simon Sandberg for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 28 Jayden Daniels fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Riley Sharp , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:4076% → 88%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
76.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+1
76.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+6
75.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 6 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+8
73.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 8 yds to the ArzSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
88.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 12 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 1:4915% → 35%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
84.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+56
84.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 56 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
80.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 3 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+10
80.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
80.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
65.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyle Williams for 8 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0077% → 79%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
77.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 11 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
78.9%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 41 Artavis Pierce fumbled, forced by Roe Wilkins, recovered by ArzSt Shannon FormanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 1:3530% → 24%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
69.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
69.8%
Kyle Williams run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
70.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Frank Darby, broken up by Jordan WhittleySimilar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+12
71.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 12 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
67.3%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-5
68.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Eno Benjamin for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 30
-13
73.4%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Omar Speights for a loss of 13 yards to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 29
OPP 43
+49
75.6%
Michael Turk punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
82.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 11 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
82.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+4
82.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 4 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
82.0%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+43
80.7%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brandon Aiyuk at the OREGONST 20 ARIZONA ST Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · 80 yds · 0:0021% → 27%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+36
78.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Frank Darby for 36 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
75.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+7
75.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 7 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+28
73.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 28 yds to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
72.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds Eno Benjamin fumbled, forced by David Morris, recovered by OrgSt Jalen MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
84.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 9 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-5
85.1%
Luton,Jake pass complete to Hodgins,Isaiah for 27 yards to the ASU44, out-of-bounds (Lucas,Chase), PENALTY OSU ineligible downfield on pass (Cordasco,Clay) 5 yards to the OSU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
84.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 5 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
83.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
84.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 6 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
85.7%
Jake Luton run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
86.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 12 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
86.7%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
86.5%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
85.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Trevon Bradford, broken up by Jermayne LoleSimilar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
83.7%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 24TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:3915% → 41%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
84.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon Aiyuk, broken up by Nahshon WrightSimilar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+2
85.0%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+44
85.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 44 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
79.9%
Kyle Williams run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+16
80.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Geordon Porter for 16 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
77.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+3
77.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-8
77.7%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Hamilcar Rashed Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 18
OPP 22
+10
79.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 10 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
79.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+12
59.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 12 yds for a TD Timeout OREGON ST, clock 01:40 (Eno Benjamin intercepted ) ARIZONA ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:5774% → 83%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
73.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+2
81.5%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
80.6%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+3
80.4%
Luton,Jake pass incomplete to Bradford,T., PENALTY ASU pass interference (Jones,Jack) 3 yards to the ASU41, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
82.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:40
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 12 yds for a TD Timeout OREGON ST, clock 01:40 (Eno Benjamin intercepted ) ARIZONA ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declined
-28.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+17.1
TD · Q3 2:19
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyle Williams for 8 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK)
-15.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com