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USC

USC 31 at Arizona State 26

ASU
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-5.1ASU 20.2%Chase McGrath 41 yd FG GOODAWAY 31 - HOME 20 · Q3 1:18
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:18 · Chase McGrath 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Home team on offense−19.5Pregame prior−4.2Score differential−8.5Garbage-time factor−6.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:03: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 95 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +7.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:47: Joey Yellen pass complete to Frank Darby for 62 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas PAT MISSED) — ASU win probability +7.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:32: Joey Yellen pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 2 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK) — ASU win probability +9.8 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 1:18: Chase McGrath 41 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +5.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:54: Joey Yellen pass complete to Frank Darby for 15 yds for a TD Timeout ARIZONA ST, clock 08:54 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ASU win probability +16.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00USC 4th & 1 at ASU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00ASU 4th & 1 at USC 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−1.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:49ASU 4th & 15 at ASU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:28ASU 4th & 7 at USC 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:57USC 4th & 2 at USC 33, up 21
    Close callPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:34USC 4th & 8 at ASU 42, up 15
    Close callPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    77.7%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:32USC 4th & 7 at ASU 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:19ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 42, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:18USC 4th & 4 at ASU 23, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.1%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−6.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:18ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 43, down 11
    Close callPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:50ASU 4th & 10 at USC 37, down 11
    Close callPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    19.8%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:17USC 4th & 9 at USC 4, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−3.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:07USC 4th & 10 at ASU 47, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:01ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 2, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−2.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:36USC 4th & 7 at ASU 38, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    79.7%−1.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:56USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:14USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:12ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:36USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 0:03USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:47ASU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:32ASU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:54ASU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0465% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
34.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
34.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
34.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kenan Christon for 4 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+17
34.9%
Kedon Slovis run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
34.9%
Kenan Christon run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+14
34.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 14 yds to the ArzSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
34.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 7 yds to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+1
34.9%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+1
34.9%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+1
34.9%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
34.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds for a TD McGrath, Chase kick attempt good, PENALTY USC IS (Bradley, Clayto) 5 yards to the ASU8, NO PLAY. (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2INT
12 plays · 36 yds · 0:0035% → 37%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
35.0%
[SG], Yellen,Joey pass complete to Darby,Frank for 40 yards to the USC30 (Steele, Chris), PENALTY ASU tripping (Benjamin,Eno) 15 yards to the ASU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 15
+8
34.7%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Kyle Williams for 8 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+18
34.7%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 18 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
35.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
36.3%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+8
35.9%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Kyle Williams for 8 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
36.5%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 6 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
36.5%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Eno BenjaminSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+3
36.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
35.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
37.1%
Joey Yellen pass intercepted Isaiah Pola-Mao return for no gain to the USC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
35.3%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Brandon Aiyuk, broken up by Olaijah GriffinSimilar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
35.3%
Joey Yellen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-5
35.0%
Joey Yellen sacked by Abdul-Malik McClain for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 15
OWN 26
+3
34.9%
Michael Turk punt for 59 yds , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for 3 yds to the USC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 2:3565% → 69%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
34.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 11 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
34.8%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 27Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+25
35.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 25 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
34.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 28 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
34.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kenan Christon for 12 yds to the ArzSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
31.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kenan Christon for 8 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4733% → 36%
Q1 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
33.3%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 5Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
33.3%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q1 5:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
36.2%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3665% → 70%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.8%
Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
34.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler Vaughns, broken up by Khaylan Kearse-ThomasSimilar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
35.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
34.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 3 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
34.2%
Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+58
29.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kenan Christon for 58 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
50
+5
31.7%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 5 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-1
31.7%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 47 Eno Benjamin fumbled, forced by Brandon Pili, recovered by ArzSt Eno BenjaminSimilar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
31.6%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q1 2:28
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
31.3%
Michael Turk punt for 45 yds, downed at the USC 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8TD
3 plays · 98 yds · 0:5170% → 78%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
29.6%
Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 7
OWN 5
0
29.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr., broken up by Chase LucasSimilar
Q1 0:03
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+95
22.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 95 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
17.7%
Kenan Christon run for 9 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 1
OWN 10
+3
17.7%
Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the USC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
17.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+12
17.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 12 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
17.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
17.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
18.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q2 9:57
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
18.3%
Ben Griffiths punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Brandon Aiyuk at the ArzSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 1:0019% → 26%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
18.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
19.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+62
26.0%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Frank Darby for 62 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
24.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 16 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
23.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 4 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
23.7%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted Evan Fields return for 1 yd to the ArzSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 53 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
24.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+26
24.4%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 11 yds to the ArzSt 15 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, personal foul (Olaijah Griffin) to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
24.8%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 17 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
26.4%
Yellen,Joey pass complete to Soelle,Connor for 33 yards to the USC20 (Hufanga, Talano), PENALTY ASU ineligible downfield on pass (Henderson,L.) 5 yards to the ASU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+12
25.4%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 12 yds Eno Benjamin fumbled, forced by Talanoa Hufanga, recovered by USC Nick FigueroaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:1879% → 81%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
20.8%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the USC 46Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+5
20.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+5
21.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 5 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
20.8%
Kedon Slovis run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+1
20.7%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
21.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Kenan Christon, broken up by Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 3
OPP 37
-5
18.8%
[SG], PENALTY USC false start (Vaughns, Tyler) 5 yards to the ASU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
18.9%
Ben Griffiths punt for 33 yds, downed at the ArzSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
21.1%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 7 yds to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+4
21.8%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Kyle Williams for 4 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
21.9%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Eno Benjamin for no gain to the ArzSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:2423% → 34%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
23.1%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 13 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
23.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+9
23.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 9 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
24.2%
[NHSG], PENALTY USC pass interference (Griffin, Olaija) 15 yards to the USC14, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
24.2%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Nolan Matthews for 2 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 12
-5
24.2%
[NHSG], PENALTY ASU delay of game 5 yards to the USC17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+12
23.9%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Kyle Williams for 12 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+3
23.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the USC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.5%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 2 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
50
+5
25.5%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+7
25.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 7 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
25.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
25.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 5
OPP 33
-2
25.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
27.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler Vaughns, broken up by Jack JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
29.2%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
28.8%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+3
28.5%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 3 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+51
28.1%
Michael Turk punt for 51 yds , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 5:5273% → 80%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
26.8%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+2
26.8%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+21
27.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 21 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
25.3%
Amon-Ra St. Brown run for 8 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+3
24.3%
Amon-Ra St. Brown run for 3 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
24.2%
Matt Fink pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 14 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
23.8%
Quincy Jountti run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+11
23.9%
Matt Fink pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 11 yds to the ArzSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
23.3%
Amon-Ra St. Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 13
OPP 32
-5
23.5%
[NHSG], PENALTY USC false start (McKenzie, Jalen) 5 yards to the ASU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 18
OPP 37
0
24.2%
Matt Fink pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 18
OPP 37
+14
25.3%
Matt Fink pass complete to Drake London for 14 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
20.2%
Chase McGrath 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
20.3%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
19.9%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 8 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
20.9%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
19.5%
Michael Turk punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:2982% → 82%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
18.3%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the USC 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+11
18.3%
Kenan Christon run for 11 yds to the USC 37 Kenan Christon fumbled, forced by Darien Butler, recovered by ArzSt Evan FieldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 19%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
22.2%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 40Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+3
20.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
20.8%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
18.8%
Michael Turk punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
17.0%
Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+6
17.1%
Matt Fink pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 6 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 1
OWN 12
-5
17.5%
[NHSG], PENALTY USC false start (Krommenhoek, Er) 5 yards to the USC7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 6
OWN 7
0
17.7%
Matt Fink pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. Brown, broken up by Kobe WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 6
OWN 7
-3
18.0%
USC Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the USC 4Similar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 9
OWN 4
0
18.0%
Ben Griffiths punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:0519% → 36%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
19.4%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-6
18.9%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 4 yds to the USC 36 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 46Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+15
17.8%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 15 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+15
19.9%
Yellen,Joey pass intercepted by Hufanga, Talano at the USC10, Hufanga, Talano return to the ASU40 (Cabral,Cohl), PENALTY USC roughing passer (Tufele, Jay) 15 yards to the USC16, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
21.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 9 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 1
OPP 7
-3
21.1%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 10Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 4
OPP 10
-5
19.7%
[SG], PENALTY ASU false start (Miller,Steven) 5 yards to the USC15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+15
36.3%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Frank Darby for 15 yds for a TD Timeout ARIZONA ST, clock 08:54 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:4775% → 75%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
24.9%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 20Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+10
25.6%
[NHSG], Fink, Matt pass intercepted by Thomas,Khaylan at the USC22, Thomas,Khaylan return to the USC0, clock 08:07, PENALTY ASU holding 10 yards to the USC30, 1ST DOWN USC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
23.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 23 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
20.8%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Tyler Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 48Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 15
OWN 48
0
23.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 15
OWN 48
-5
24.6%
[SG], PENALTY USC false start (Jackson, Austin) 5 yards to the USC43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 20
OWN 43
+15
24.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 15 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 5
OPP 42
-5
23.7%
USC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
25.3%
Ben Griffiths punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0025% → 22%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
24.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 7
OWN 4
0
23.9%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 7
OWN 4
-2
22.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, delay of game (-2 Yards) to the ArzSt 2Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
22.6%
Joey Yellen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+24
21.5%
Michael Turk punt for 63 yds , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for 24 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:2486% → 84%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
14.4%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-15
14.6%
[NHSG], Christon, Kenan rush for 4 yards to the ASU35 (Robertson,M.), PENALTY USC crackback 15 yards to the USC46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 23
OWN 46
+5
16.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 18
OPP 49
+11
16.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 11 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
15.7%
Ben Griffiths punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Brandon Aiyuk at the ArzSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 27INT
12 plays · 58 yds · 2:4219% → 19%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
19.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+8
18.7%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Kyle Williams for 8 yds to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
19.2%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Jordan Kerley, broken up by Dorian HewettSimilar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
18.7%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+13
18.1%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 13 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
19.5%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Frank Darby for 9 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+9
22.2%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 9 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
23.7%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Kyle Williams for 7 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
23.5%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Tommy HudsonSimilar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+8
16.0%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Kyle Williams for 8 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
18.9%
Joey Yellen pass intercepted Christian Rector return for no gain to the USC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:54
Joey Yellen pass complete to Frank Darby for 15 yds for a TD Timeout ARIZONA ST, clock 08:54 (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+16.5
TD · Q3 11:32
Joey Yellen pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 2 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q1 0:03
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 95 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com