Try the model
MIA

Miami 17 at Duke 27

DUKE
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Wallace Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+1.5DUKE 31.1%AJ Reed 40 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 3:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:06 · AJ Reed 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Pregame prior−22.0Home team on offense+1.0Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:52: Quentin Harris run for 24 yds for a TD (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +4.1 pts (now 35%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:18: AJ Reed 36 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +6.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:26: Jarren Williams pass complete to Robert Burns for 15 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK) — MIA win probability +13.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:37: Deon Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +30.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:55: Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 49 yds for a TD (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +20.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 11MIA made the numbers' call on 12 of 15
  1. Q1 15:00DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:34MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:03DUKE 4th & 13 at MIA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:03MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:11DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 7:13MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:06DUKE 4th & 10 at MIA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q1 3:00MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.7%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:52MIA 4th & 13 at DUKE 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    59.9%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:18DUKE 4th & 8 at MIA 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−5.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:40DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 33, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:16MIA 4th & 15 at MIA 43, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:55MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−1.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 14:03DUKE 4th & 14 at DUKE 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:08MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 45, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:03DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 17, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:05MIA 4th & 6 at DUKE 10, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−11.6
    average punt
  18. Q3 6:00DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−1.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  19. Q3 4:18MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  20. Q3 2:51MIA 4th & 12 at DUKE 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−1.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    66.1%−1.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  21. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 11 at DUKE 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  22. Q4 12:52MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−5.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  23. Q4 9:30MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  24. Q4 5:19MIA 4th & 18 at DUKE 43, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%−0.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    9.2%
    average punt
  25. Q4 3:36DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  26. Q4 3:29MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 25, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:52MIA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:52DUKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:26MIA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:37DUKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−0.7
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:55DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
24.0%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
24.0%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+4
24.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 4 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
24.0%
Austin Parker punt for 46 yds, downed at the MiaFl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
24.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
24.7%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for no gain to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
24.7%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 8
OWN 16
0
24.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 23 yds, downed at the MiaFl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:0526% → 26%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
25.7%
Quentin Harris sacked by Gregory Rousseau for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+5
25.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+1
25.8%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+9
25.7%
Deon Jackson run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
25.8%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-4
25.8%
Quentin Harris sacked by Jonathan Garvin for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 28 DUKE Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 13
OPP 28
0
25.5%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+46
26.4%
AJ Reed 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
26.3%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
26.3%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
26.5%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+7
26.6%
Lou Hedley punt for 49 yds , Myles Hudzick returns for 7 yds to the Duke 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
27.0%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+5
27.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 2
OWN 35
-1
27.2%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+2
26.9%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 9:11
4TH & 1
OWN 36
-2
26.8%
Austin Parker punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 10 , K.J. Osborn returns for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
27.7%
Robert Burns run for no gain to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+8
27.7%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 8 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+1
27.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
28.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Myles Hudzick at the Duke 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:0629% → 31%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
29.2%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-3
29.2%
Quentin Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+15
28.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 15 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+27
29.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 27 yds to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
30.0%
Jake Bobo pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
29.9%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
29.6%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
31.1%
AJ Reed 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:0869% → 72%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
31.3%
Jarren Williams sacked by Tre Hornbuckle for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
31.6%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Leonard JohnsonSimilar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+13
31.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Will Mallory for 13 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+21
31.3%
Lou Hedley run for 21 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
30.3%
Osborn, K. rush for 5 yards to the DU35 (Singleton,D.;Waters,M.), PENALTY UM holding (Scaife, D.) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 20
50
+15
30.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 15 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+12
29.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 12 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
31.0%
Williams, J. pass incomplete to Osborn, K., PENALTY DU pass interference (Blackwell,J.) 15 yards to the DU8, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
27.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 8 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 1:4831% → 35%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
30.8%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+9
30.9%
Deon Jackson run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
31.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 8 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+2
31.3%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
31.3%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
31.3%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+24
35.4%
Quentin Harris run for 24 yds for a TD (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 1:5666% → 63%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
34.4%
Jarren Williams run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
34.1%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Cam'Ron HarrisSimilar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+23
34.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Will Mallory for 23 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
32.9%
Robert Burns run for 3 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
32.8%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+10
34.7%
Williams, J. pass complete to Osborn, K. for 5 yards to the DU44 (Johnson,L.), PENALTY DU holding (Waters,M.) 10 yards to the DU39, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
34.4%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
34.5%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-3
35.0%
Jarren Williams sacked by Koby Quansah for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
36.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 21 yds, downed at the Duke 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:0937% → 46%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
37.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 5 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+1
37.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+11
36.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 11 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+42
38.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 42 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
40.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
40.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
39.3%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
45.7%
AJ Reed 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 4:4856% → 70%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
44.5%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
43.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+10
44.0%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
43.2%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
43.6%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+32
44.6%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Will Mallory for 32 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
40.8%
Robert Burns run for 4 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
40.8%
Robert Burns run for 3 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+4
42.1%
Robert Burns run for 4 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
43.3%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
29.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Robert Burns for 15 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:4135% → 34%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
35.4%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+7
35.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+1
36.1%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+8
34.4%
Austin Parker punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 23 , K.J. Osborn returns for 8 yds to the MiaFl 23 K.J. Osborn fumbled, forced by Trevon McSwain, recovered by MiaFlSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:0767% → 64%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+25
33.5%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Will Mallory for 25 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
31.1%
Jarren Williams sacked by Chris Rumph II for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 13
OWN 45
-7
33.7%
Jarren Williams sacked by Ben Frye and Tre Hornbuckle for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 20
OWN 38
+5
35.0%
Robert Burns run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
36.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
33.2%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
34.5%
Robert Burns run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
33.5%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
34.8%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
36.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Myles Hudzick at the Duke 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0038% → 35%
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
37.6%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
37.4%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron Young, broken up by Trajan BandySimilar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-4
35.9%
Quentin Harris sacked by Trevon Hill and Gregory Rousseau for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 14:03
4TH & 14
OWN 27
+5
35.1%
Austin Parker punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 32 , K.J. Osborn returns for 5 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:5465% → 62%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
34.7%
Robert Burns run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-5
34.4%
Jarren Williams sacked by Chris Rumph II for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 23 Jarren Williams fumbled, recovered by MiaFl DJ Scaife Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 19
OWN 23
+19
36.9%
Robert Burns run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, personal foul (Koby Quansah) to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
35.1%
Jarren Williams sacked by Dylan Singleton for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+6
37.5%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Robert Burns for 6 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+5
37.3%
Jarren Williams run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
37.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 42 yds, downed at the Duke 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
40.3%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
40.3%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
39.0%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+43
38.3%
Austin Parker punt for 40 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 43 yds to the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5966% → 68%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
34.2%
Robert Burns run for 4 yds to the Duke 10Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+1
34.2%
Robert Burns run for 1 yd to the Duke 9Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 5
OPP 9
-1
35.6%
Robert Burns run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 10Similar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
32.3%
Camden Price 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
35.4%
Quentin Harris sacked by Jonathan Ford and Gregory Rousseau for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 24Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-4
35.2%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+7
33.7%
Quentin Harris run for 7 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
33.4%
Austin Parker punt for 71 yds, downed at the MiaFl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
32.8%
Robert Burns run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+3
33.0%
Robert Burns run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 5
OWN 7
0
33.8%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 5
OWN 7
0
34.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Myles Hudzick at the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:0038% → 35%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
37.5%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
37.0%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 11
OWN 48
-9
34.5%
Quentin Harris sacked by Jonathan Garvin for a loss of 9 yards to the Duke 40 Quentin Harris fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Nesta Jade Silvera , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0072% → 69%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
27.6%
Robert Burns run for 1 yd to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+2
27.7%
Robert Burns run for 2 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-5
28.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (Corey Gaynor) to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 12
OPP 43
0
28.7%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:51
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
31.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:1634% → 33%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
34.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
34.3%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+16
32.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 16 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
35.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+7
37.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 7 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
38.4%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-2
38.1%
Quentin Harris sacked by Michael Pinckney for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
34.8%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
33.0%
Austin Parker punt for 40 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the MiaFl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0069% → 66%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
31.4%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mark Pope for 6 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 4
OWN 20
0
30.2%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 4
OWN 20
-8
32.0%
Jarren Williams sacked by Chris Rumph II for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 12
OWN 12
0
33.6%
Lou Hedley punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:4941% → 74%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
40.7%
Quentin Harris run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+11
43.4%
Deon Jackson run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
43.4%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+18
43.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 18 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
43.4%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.0%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0037% → 34%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
62.9%
Robert Burns run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
63.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
64.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+2
66.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 45 yds , Myles Hudzick returns for 2 yds to the Duke 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:3470% → 91%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
69.6%
Deon Jackson run for 8 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
72.2%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+13
70.5%
Quentin Harris run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
90.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 49 yds for a TD (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 30DOWNS
10 plays · 32 yds · 1:3610% → 8%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 8 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
88.6%
Robert Burns run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
89.0%
N'Kosi Perry run for 17 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
87.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 11 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
88.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Mike Harley, broken up by Michael Carter IISimilar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-8
88.1%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Chris Rumph II and Shaka Heyward for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 18
OPP 43
0
91.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 18
OPP 43
0
91.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Will Mallory, broken up by Marquis WatersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 31PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5693% → 94%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
92.6%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+1
92.6%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the Duke 46Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
94.0%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the Duke 46Similar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
94.0%
Austin Parker punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 32FUMBLE
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
95.5%
N'Kosi Perry run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
95.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
95.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+8
95.8%
N'Kosi Perry run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
95.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 15
OWN 28
-4
95.5%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Trevon McSwain for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 26 N'Kosi Perry fumbled, recovered by Duke Koby Quansah , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 33END OF GAME
5 plays · -20 yds · 1:3296% → 98%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-8
96.3%
Team run for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 18
OPP 34
-7
97.0%
Team run for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 25
OPP 41
-5
98.3%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:37
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD (AJ Reed KICK)
+30.5
TD · Q4 6:55
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 49 yds for a TD (AJ Reed KICK)
+20.3
TD · Q2 2:26
Jarren Williams pass complete to Robert Burns for 15 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)
-13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com