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BC

Boston College 26 at Pittsburgh 19

PITT
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGFGTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:56 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:49: Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 25 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +9.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:22: Vincent Davis run for 39 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +13.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:31: AJ Dillon run for 61 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +15.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:57: Aaron Boumerhi 30 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +12.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 9:41: Aaron Boumerhi 22 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +8.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BC made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00BC 4th & 1 at BC 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:26PITT 4th & 22 at PITT 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:15BC 4th & 7 at BC 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:33BC 4th & 9 at PITT 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:00BC 4th & 7 at PITT 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:11PITT 4th & 5 at BC 5, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−4.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:11BC 4th & 1 at PITT 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.7%−0.9
    58% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−2.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:03PITT 4th & 17 at BC 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:22BC 4th & 12 at BC 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:08PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:56BC 4th & 6 at BC 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:14BC 4th & 12 at BC 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−2.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:31PITT 4th & 4 at BC 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    56.7%−1.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−2.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:54BC 4th & 4 at PITT 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    48.9%−1.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−11.8
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:57BC 4th & 8 at PITT 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−14.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:41BC 4th & 3 at PITT 5, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%−1.8
    92% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−14.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:26PITT 4th & 1 at BC 25, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.6%−2.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−7.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 9:49BC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:22PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:31BC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.7%
Dennis Grosel run for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
70.7%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
70.7%
Dennis Grosel run for 8 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
70.7%
Grant Carlson punt for 46 yds , John Vardzel returns for 3 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
70.5%
A.J. Davis run for 7 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+3
70.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 3 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
70.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+19
70.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 19 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
70.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 42Similar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 15
OWN 42
0
70.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+1
70.5%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 14
OWN 43
-8
70.5%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Isaiah McDuffie for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 35Similar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 22
OWN 35
0
70.4%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 47 yds , Travis Levy returns for no gain to the BC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
69.9%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 13Similar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+8
69.9%
AJ Dillon run for 8 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
69.9%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
70.1%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 7
OWN 21
-2
70.2%
Grant Carlson punt for 36 yds , John Vardzel returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
70.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 11 yds Jared Wayne fumbled, forced by Vinny DePalma, recovered by BC Nolan BorgersenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:4431% → 32%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
69.3%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 8
50
+13
69.2%
AJ Dillon run for 13 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
69.2%
Travis Levy run for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
69.1%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+4
69.2%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
69.1%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the Pitt 26Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+13
69.1%
Dennis Grosel run for 13 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
69.1%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-1
69.1%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 12Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
69.3%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+29
68.1%
Aaron Boumerhi 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0068% → 69%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
68.0%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 11 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
68.7%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 38 Vincent Davis fumbled, recovered by BC Tanner KarafaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7FG
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:0333% → 35%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
67.3%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
67.3%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the Pitt 38Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+20
67.6%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to AJ Dillon for 20 yds to the Pitt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
67.0%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
67.1%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
67.3%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to David BaileySimilar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
65.1%
Aaron Boumerhi 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:4966% → 67%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.0%
A.J. Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
66.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Nakia Griffin-Stewart for 1 yd to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
65.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Nakia Griffin-Stewart for 8 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
66.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 22 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+27
67.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Nakia Griffin-Stewart for 12 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Isaiah McDuffie) to the BC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
67.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 6 yds to the BC 9Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+4
67.9%
A.J. Davis run for 4 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
67.9%
A.J. Davis run for 4 yds to the BC 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
66.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the BC 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
66.7%
Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the BC 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
65.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
66.5%
Alex Kessman 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:2235% → 44%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
65.1%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
65.3%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+9
65.4%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 9 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
64.3%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-2
64.3%
David Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 43Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+19
64.9%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Kobay White for 19 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
64.0%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+2
63.5%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+4
64.2%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+4
64.8%
Dennis Grosel run for 4 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
55.6%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 25 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:4655% → 55%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-Louis, broken up by Elijah JonesSimilar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
55.3%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Tanner Karafa for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 17Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+18
54.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 18 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
55.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 29 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+27
57.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 27 yds to the BC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
58.1%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Isaiah McDuffie for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 13Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
58.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to A.J. Davis, broken up by TJ RayamSimilar
Q2 9:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-4
56.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 17Similar
Q2 6:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+35
54.7%
Alex Kessman 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 10 yds · 1:4146% → 46%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
54.5%
AJ Dillon run for 9 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-5
53.4%
Dillon,A rush for 2 yards to the BC35 (Johnson, K;Bentley, T), PENALTY BC encroachment (White,K) 5 yards to the BC28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-5
53.8%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Kobay White) to the BC 23Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+7
54.8%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+6
51.8%
Dennis Grosel run for 6 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
50.9%
Bailey,D rush for 20 yards to the UP44 (Mathis, D), PENALTY BC holding (Vrabel,T) 10 yards to the BC26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+8
52.6%
David Bailey run for 8 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
52.8%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Hunter LongSimilar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
53.4%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Travis Levy, broken up by Damar HamlinSimilar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
54.1%
Grant Carlson punt for 38 yds, downed at the Pitt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
52.5%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Marcus Valdez for a loss of 10 yards to the Pitt 20 Kenny Pickett fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 18
OWN 20
+9
51.6%
A.J. Davis run for 9 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
50.8%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to A.J. Davis, broken up by Vinny DePalmaSimilar
Q2 3:08
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+4
50.3%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 45 yds , Travis Levy returns for 4 yds to the BC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5652% → 51%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
47.9%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 27Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 13
OWN 27
-2
49.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to AJ Dillon for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 25Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+9
50.1%
Dennis Grosel run for 9 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+46
48.8%
Grant Carlson punt for 46 yds , John Vardzel returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 19 John Vardzel fumbled, recovered by Pitt John VardzelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 0:4750% → 58%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
49.9%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+6
49.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 6 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+8
50.0%
A.J. Davis run for 8 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+27
49.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 27 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
51.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 7 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+48
57.6%
Alex Kessman 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
57.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 2 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
58.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
57.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Aaron MathewsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+6
56.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 51 yds , Travis Levy returns for 6 yds to the BC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0045% → 42%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
55.4%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-12
55.6%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Patrick Jones II and Jaylen Twyman for a loss of 12 yards to the BC 9Similar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 19
OWN 9
+7
57.4%
Dennis Grosel run for 7 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q3 14:14
4TH & 12
OWN 16
0
58.0%
Grant Carlson punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
1 play · 39 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
71.8%
Vincent Davis run for 39 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5132% → 48%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
67.7%
Dennis Grosel run for 10 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
67.0%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+61
51.8%
AJ Dillon run for 61 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19INT
12 plays · 69 yds · 0:0055% → 61%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
54.6%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 6Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+21
54.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 21 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
55.6%
Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the Pitt 27Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+19
55.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Will Gragg for 19 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
58.3%
Vincent Davis run for 9 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+3
59.4%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
59.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for no gain to the BC 42Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
59.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 6 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
59.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Aaron Mathews, broken up by Tate HaynesSimilar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+9
57.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 9 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+36
61.0%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted Jahmin Muse return for 36 yds to the BC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 5:5753% → 66%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
47.4%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+3
47.3%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+10
47.5%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Korab Idrizi for 10 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
46.6%
AJ Dillon run for 11 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
45.4%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+3
45.5%
Zay Flowers run for 3 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+2
46.6%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+11
49.6%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 11 yds to the Pitt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
45.0%
David Bailey run for no gain to the Pitt 14Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
45.0%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the Pitt 13Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+1
47.0%
Dennis Grosel run for 1 yd to the Pitt 12Similar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+30
34.3%
Aaron Boumerhi 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21FUMBLE
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:5739% → 40%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
38.9%
Jared Wayne run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 22Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-5
38.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (Nakia Griffin-Stewart) to the Pitt 17Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+3
38.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 3 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+17
33.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 17 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
36.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 8 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
39.9%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 49 A.J. Davis fumbled, forced by Brandon Barlow, recovered by BC Tanner KarafaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:2373% → 83%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
26.9%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
26.9%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+13
27.4%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Kobay White for 13 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
26.3%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 36Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+6
26.9%
Kobay White run for 6 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+18
26.5%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 18 yds to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
25.3%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the Pitt 9Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+2
25.3%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the Pitt 7Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+2
26.2%
Kobay White run for 2 yds to the Pitt 5Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+22
17.3%
Aaron Boumerhi 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:1518% → 27%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rashad Wheeler for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
18.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 4 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
18.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 5 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
19.2%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 38Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
19.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Will GraggSimilar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+15
18.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 15 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
21.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 13 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
23.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 6 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
24.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+3
22.5%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q4 5:26
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+43
27.4%
Alex Kessman 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24END OF GAME
15 plays · 40 yds · 2:3083% → 90%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
16.6%
AJ Dillon run for 11 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
15.8%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
15.0%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+4
15.5%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
10.5%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+9
9.1%
AJ Dillon run for 9 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
8.7%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+7
8.2%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
8.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 12
OPP 30
-3
8.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 15
OPP 33
-2
9.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:31
AJ Dillon run for 61 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
-15.2
TD · Q3 12:22
Vincent Davis run for 39 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
+13.8
FG · Q3 0:57
Aaron Boumerhi 30 yd FG GOOD
-12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com