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MER

Mercer 7 at North Carolina 56

UNC
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadMER aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreMER score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:18 · Grant Goupil punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the NCaro 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Home team on offense+27.5Score differential+20.0Pregame prior+13.5Blowout margin+11.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.4Garbage-time factor+4.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:39: Michael Carter run for 45 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +1.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:46: Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 66 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +8.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:46: Sam Howell pass complete to Jake Bargas for 4 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +7.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:09: Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 33 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — MER win probability +0.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:22: Michael Carter run for 9 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MER made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:30MER 4th & 3 at MER 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:33MER 4th & 10 at UNC 29, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    46.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00MER 4th & 6 at MER 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:20MER 4th & 1 at MER 35, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.0%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:04MER 4th & 9 at MER 34, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:15UNC 4th & 1 at MER 11, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.6%−1.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:18MER 4th & 7 at MER 28, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:18UNC 4th & 23 at UNC 22, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:36MER 4th & 10 at MER 35, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:37UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 37, up 49
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:11MER 4th & 17 at MER 18, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:44UNC 4th & 4 at midfield, up 49
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:38MER 4th & 16 at MER 17, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:41MER 4th & 16 at MER 46, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:41UNC 4th & 19 at MER 39, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:33UNC 4th & 11 at UNC 23, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MER made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:30UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:39UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:46UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:46UNC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:09UNC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:22UNC Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 14:41UNC Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:16UNC Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:38MER Touchdown, down 50 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MERDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
73.9%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to David Durden for 2 yds David Durden fumbled, forced by Don Chapman, recovered by NCaro Chazz SurrattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:1774% → 74%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
73.9%
Michael Carter run for 8 yds to the Mercr 11Similar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+3
73.9%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the Mercr 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
73.9%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mercr 11Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
74.1%
Antonio Williams run for 11 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.0%
Tyray Devezin run for 3 yds to the Mercr 28Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
74.0%
Kaelan Riley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
74.0%
Tyray Devezin run for 4 yds to the Mercr 32Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+25
74.0%
Grant Goupil punt for 40 yds MERCER Penalty, kick catching interference (David Durden) to the NCaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
2 plays · 57 yds · 0:2474% → 75%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
74.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 12 yds to the Mercr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
75.3%
Michael Carter run for 45 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 5INT
20 plays · 64 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
75.3%
Tyray Devezin run for 3 yds to the Mercr 10Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+5
75.3%
Tyray Devezin run for 5 yds to the Mercr 15Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+1
75.3%
Tyray Devezin run for 1 yd to the Mercr 16Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 1
OWN 16
+5
75.3%
Grant Goupil punt 34 yards to the 50 yardline, fair catch by Groves, R, PENALTY NC roughing the kicker (Simmons, E) 5 yards to the MER21, 1ST DOWN MER, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
75.2%
Tyray Devezin run for 9 yds to the Mercr 30Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+3
75.2%
Tyray Devezin run for 3 yds to the Mercr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
75.2%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Tucker Cannon for 6 yds to the Mercr 39Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+5
75.1%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Yahsyn McKee for 5 yds to the Mercr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
75.1%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Yahsyn McKee for 1 yd to the Mercr 45Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+3
75.1%
Tyray Devezin run for 3 yds to the Mercr 48Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+9
75.1%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Yahsyn McKee for 9 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
75.1%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to David DurdenSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
75.1%
Tyray Devezin run for no gain to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+14
75.2%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Yahsyn McKee for 14 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
74.9%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to David Durden for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-5
74.9%
MERCER Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+3
75.0%
Tyray Devezin run for 3 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
75.1%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Tucker CannonSimilar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 10
OPP 29
0
75.2%
Harrison Frost pass intercepted Storm Duck return for no gain to the NCaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
4 plays · 87 yds · 9:4775% → 84%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
75.1%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+5
75.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 5 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
75.1%
Javonte Williams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
83.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 66 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4616% → 14%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.2%
Tyray Devezin run for 4 yds to the Mercr 29Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
84.1%
Tyray Devezin run for no gain to the Mercr 29Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
84.2%
Tyray Devezin run for no gain to the Mercr 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
85.6%
Grant Goupil punt for 35 yds, downed at the NCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 3:0286% → 94%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
85.5%
Sam Howell run for 17 yds to the Mercr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
86.0%
Antonio Williams run for 5 yds to the Mercr 42Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+10
86.0%
Antonio Williams run for 10 yds to the Mercr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+26
86.0%
Antonio Williams run for 26 yds to the Mercr 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
86.0%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the Mercr 4Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
86.0%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the Mercr 4Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Jake Bargas for 4 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:197% → 6%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
93.3%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to David DurdenSimilar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
93.2%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Yahsyn McKee for 7 yds to the Mercr 33Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+2
92.8%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Yahsyn McKee for 2 yds to the Mercr 35Similar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-2
93.9%
Tyray Devezin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mercr 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
1 play · 33 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
93.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 33 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
95.6%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to David Durden, broken up by DeAndre HollinsSimilar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
95.7%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Yahsyn McKee for 1 yd to the Mercr 23Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+10
95.7%
Kaelan Riley middle pass intercepted by Ross, G at the MER27, Ross, G return to the MER27, PENALTY NC holding (Ross, G) 10 yards to the MER33, 1ST DOWN MER, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
95.5%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to David Durden for a loss of 2 yards to the Mercr 31Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+3
95.7%
Tyray Devezin run for 3 yds to the Mercr 34Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
95.7%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Yahsyn McKeeSimilar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
95.7%
Grant Goupil punt for 45 yds, downed at the NCaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:5396% → 99%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
96.4%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+8
96.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 8 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
96.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 11 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
96.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 5 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+31
96.5%
Michael Carter run for 31 yds to the Mercr 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
96.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
96.6%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the Mercr 15Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+4
96.6%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the Mercr 11Similar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
96.5%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the Mercr 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.5%
Michael Carter run for 9 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.4%
Tyray Devezin run for 3 yds to the Mercr 28Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
98.4%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Tyray DevezinSimilar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
98.4%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to David Durden, broken up by Storm DuckSimilar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
98.4%
Grant Goupil punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0499% → 99%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
98.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 11 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
98.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antonio Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
98.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 13
OWN 32
-10
98.7%
Howell, S deep pass complete to Groves, R for 68 yards to the MER0, clock 01:18, PENALTY NC holding (Anderson, B) 10 yards to the NC22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 23
OWN 22
0
98.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 23
OWN 22
0
98.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tucker Cannon at the Mercr 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
98.7%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Yahsyn McKeeSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-2
98.8%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Yahsyn McKee for a loss of 2 yards to the Mercr 32Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+5
98.8%
Tyray Devezin run for 5 yds to the Mercr 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
98.9%
Michael Carter run for 60 yds for a TD (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
99.1%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Chris Ellington for 11 yds to the Mercr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.1%
Tyray Devezin run for 3 yds to the Mercr 38Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-3
99.1%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Chris Ellington for a loss of 3 yards to the Mercr 35Similar
Q3 14:36
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
99.1%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Yahsyn McKeeSimilar
Q3 14:36
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
99.1%
Grant Goupil punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.1%
Antonio Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
99.1%
Vincent Amendola pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 5
OWN 0
0
99.2%
Amendola, V deep pass incomplete to Ross, D, QB hurry by Dorian Kithcart, PENALTY NC ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, PENALTY MER pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+2
99.1%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
99.1%
Ben Kiernan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tucker Cannon at the Mercr 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.5%
Kaelan Riley sacked by Raymond Vohasek for a loss of 7 yards to the Mercr 18Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
99.5%
Tyray Devezin run for no gain to the Mercr 18Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
99.5%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to David DurdenSimilar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
99.5%
Grant Goupil punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the NCaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.4%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
99.4%
Antonio Williams run for 5 yds to the Mercr 49Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-1
99.4%
Antonio Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 4
50
+12
99.4%
Ben Kiernan punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mercr 23 , Tucker Cannon returns for 12 yds to the Mercr 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.6%
Tyray Devezin run for 3 yds to the Mercr 26Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-9
99.6%
Kaelan Riley sacked by Javon Terry for a loss of 9 yards to the Mercr 17Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 16
OWN 17
0
99.7%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to David DurdenSimilar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 16
OWN 17
0
99.7%
Grant Goupil punt for 49 yds, downed at the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 4:02100% → 100%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.6%
Josh Henderson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+35
99.6%
Josh Henderson run for 35 yds to the Mercr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
99.6%
Josh Henderson run for 1 yd to the Mercr 27Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+2
99.6%
Josh Henderson run for 2 yds to the Mercr 25Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+9
99.6%
Vincent Amendola pass complete to Kamari Morales for 9 yds to the Mercr 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
99.6%
British Brooks run for 4 yds to the Mercr 12Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+12
99.8%
British Brooks run for 12 yds for a TD (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 23PUNT
13 plays · 21 yds · 4:350% → 0%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Kareem Rogers run for 2 yds to the Mercr 27Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
99.9%
Kareem Rogers run for 5 yds to the Mercr 32Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
99.8%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to David Durden for 7 yds to the Mercr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
99.8%
Kareem Rogers run for 1 yd to the Mercr 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+12
99.9%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to David Durden for 12 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
David Durden pass incomplete to Tucker Cannon, broken up by D.J. FordSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.9%
Kareem Rogers run for 2 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Kaelan Riley run for 2 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 6
OPP 44
-5
99.9%
MERCER Penalty, false start (John Thomas) to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 11
OPP 49
-5
99.9%
MERCER Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Mercr 46Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 16
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Grant Goupil punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:53100% → 100%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
99.9%
Josh Henderson run for 6 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+21
99.9%
Josh Henderson run for 21 yds to the Mercr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
99.9%
Josh Henderson run for 9 yds to the Mercr 35Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Josh Henderson run for 5 yds to the Mercr 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.9%
Josh Henderson run for 5 yds to the Mercr 25Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Josh Henderson run for no gain to the Mercr 25Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+1
99.9%
Josh Henderson run for 1 yd to the Mercr 24Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 4
OPP 24
-15
99.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Kamari Morales) to the Mercr 39Similar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 19
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tucker Cannon at the Mercr 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 25TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 3:560% → 0%
Q4 7:34
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+23
100.0%
Harrison Frost pass complete to David Durden for 23 yds to the Mercr 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
100.0%
Brandon Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mercr 28Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+26
100.0%
Harrison Frost pass complete to Yahsyn McKee for 26 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+28
100.0%
Harrison Frost pass complete to David Durden for 28 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
100.0%
Brandon Marshall run for 7 yds to the NCaro 12Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+8
99.9%
Brandon Marshall run for 8 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
Brandon Marshall run for 2 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Harrison Frost pass complete to Kareem Rogers for 2 yds for a TD (Caleb Dowden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
100.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 19Similar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 15
OWN 19
-3
100.0%
British Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 13 British Brooks fumbled, forced by Ken Standley, recovered by NCaro British BrooksSimilar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 21
OWN 13
+6
100.0%
Josh Henderson run for 6 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+4
100.0%
Josh Henderson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q4 3:33
4TH & 11
OWN 23
-3
100.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 49 yds , Tucker Cannon returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Mercr 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Kareem Rogers run for 4 yds to the Mercr 29Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Harrison Frost pass incomplete to DeMond EllisonSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
100.0%
Harrison Frost pass complete to Steven Peterson for 13 yds to the Mercr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Kareem Rogers run for no gain to the Mercr 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:46
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 66 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q2 11:46
Sam Howell pass complete to Jake Bargas for 4 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q2 3:22
Michael Carter run for 9 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com